How Accurate Are They?

With the shutdown and bubble setup occupying the NHL hockey world for the last few months, The Hockey News hasn't been able to publish their annual yearbook as we get close to next season. I assume this will happen sometime nearer to November or December, but I still expect to add one magazine to the stack that I have. It's this stack of magazines, though, that I'm going to spend October discussing because in each indivdual yearbook, they make predictions on who will make the playoffs, who will win the Stanley Cup, and more. The Hockey News is held in the highest regard for what it contains within its covers, so it's time to examine just how accurate their predictions over the last 25 years have been.

Is this an ambitious project? Absolutely. I normally like to do these types of projects over the summer when I have more time on my hands, but the pandemic has pushed the summer into October and I'm working from home, so let's call a spade "a spade" and do the project now.

Some might be thinking that I have some sort of bone to pick with The Hockey News, and I want to go on record right now that I read their annual yearbook from cover to cover because I hold them in the highest regard for print publications about hockey. The writers do exceptional work and, while I may disagree with some points or articles, they are knowledgeable about the game far more than I am. With that being the case, I actually hope that they're far more accurate than not when I do this examination.

In terms of scoring or assigning some sort of grade, it will depend on the how the predictions are made in the issue. If I was doing this in the easiest way, there will likely be three options for points: zero (0), half a point (0.5), or one point (1). Zero obviously means they got something entirely wrong. The half-point means they were right, but not exactly right. The full point will be for accurate predictions. Based on the total number of points available, we can then determine the accuracy in a percentage based on the predictions made.

Would I be surprised if the results are better or worse than I thought? Not really. Predictions are notoriously hard to get right considering these prognosticators make these predictions before the season even starts, so I'm not looking to point fingers and mock them. What I am interested in is seeing how their predictions fare throughout the course of a season to the point where if I were using them to place bets in Vegas, would I win or lose money? Basically, how reliable are these pre-season predictions when it comes to what actually happened throughout the year?

Each day in October where there isn't a radio show preview nor any major breaking news, I'll post the prediction outcomes in chronological order starting with 1995-96 through to the 2019-20 season and compared them to the actual end-of-season outcomes to how accurate they are. This should be fun, so I invite you to join me as we look back at 25 years of predictions made by The Hockey News and see if they're as smart as we believe they are.

We'll start on Friday as The Hockey Show falls on Thursday, so be ready for some fun as we look back on a quarter-century of predictions by The Hockey News!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!