The 1996-97 Predictions

With the Winnipeg Jets moving to Phoenix, Arizona in the off-season, the 26-team NHL looked a little different with just six Canadian teams in its membership. Adding a little salt to the wound was The Hockey News who sold their 1996-97 Yearbook in the Winnipeg region with yet another Maple Leaf on the front cover. Wendel Clark is a more acceptable choice being that he's from Saskatchewan, but he was still a Leaf so the force-feeding of Toronto players on the cover to the easternmost prairie provinces seems a bit cruel. That fact aside, we're back to look at another set of prognostications by the writers of The Hockey News as they offered up some more "Fearless Forecast" predictions for the 1996-97 NHL season in their pre-season look at the league!

As we saw yesterday, the final total in terms of accuracy of their predictions for the 1995-96 season was 13%. Predicting standings, as stated yesterday, is hard to do, so the accuracy levels will be low since any number of factors can contribute to teams moving up or down in the standings as the season plays out. That being said, we'll see if The Hockey News can improve upon its numbers from yesterday.

First, we need the picture evidence of the predictions in full colour.

You can click on the image to make it larger for better reading. The guy scanning the page apparently was off the mark with some of the blurry spots, but everything can be read.

STANDINGS

We'll start on the left-hand column for both standings and playoff teams. I'll award one point for every team correctly predicted as to their final conference standing. I'll also award one point for every correctly-predicted playoff team in the right standing, and 0.5 points for a playoff team not in the correct standings spot. That's a potential total of 26 points for the standings and 16 points for the playoff teams for a total of 42 points in this section.

The final Eastern Conference standings in 1996 in the NHL are listed first with The Hockey News' predicted team to finish in that same spot listed second.

1. New Jersey (NHL) vs. Pittsburgh (THN)
2. Buffalo vs. Phildelphia
3. Phildelphia vs. Washington
4. Florida vs. New Jersey
5. New York Rangers vs. New York Rangers
6. Pittsburgh vs. Florida
7. Ottawa vs. Montreal
8. Montreal vs. Boston
9. Washington vs. Tampa Bay
10. Hartford vs. Buffalo
11. Tampa Bay vs. Hartford
12. New York Islanders vs. New York Islanders
13. Boston vs. Ottawa

As you can see, they were close on some of the standings predictions, but they got both New York teams exactly right in the East in 1997. That's two points for the standings prediction. The other prediction was playoff teams, and they had six of the eight teams correct in making the playoffs, with only the Rangers in the right spot in the standings. That's 1 full point for the Rangers and 2.5 points (5 x 0.5) for those predictions, and the final total for their Eastern Conference standings predictions comes in at 5.5/21 points.

The Western Conference follows the same listing and scoring.

1. Colorado (NHL) vs. Colorado (THN)
2. Dallas vs. Detroit
3. Detroit vs. Chicago
4. Anaheim vs. Phoenix
5. Phoenix vs. Vancouver
6. St. Louis vs. St. Louis
7. Edmonton vs. Dallas
8. Chicago vs. Toronto
9. Vancouver vs. Calgary
10. Calgary vs. Anaheim
11. Toronto vs. Edmonton
12. Los Angeles vs. San Jose
13. San Jose vs. Los Angeles

THN had two of the teams right in their predicted standings for a total of 2 points as St. Louis and Colorado both finished where they predicted. Because they predicted two of the eight playoff teams in the right spots, they grabbed 2 points there, and the remaining four teams would give them another 2 points (4 x 0.5) for a final total of 6/21 possible points in the Western Conference.

PRESIDENT'S TROPHY

The prediction that the Colorado Avalanche would win the President's Trophy was accurate as Colorado finished the season with 49 wins and 107 points, three points better than both New Jersey and Dallas that season. Add another point in as THN is 1/1 here.

CONFERENCE FINALISTS

These are all-or-nothing predictions. THN went with Philadelphia and Washington in the Eastern Conference Final. It was Phildelphia and the New York Rangers who played that series, so give them 1/2 on that prediction.

The Western Conference prediction was Colorado and Detroit, and The Hockey News predicted both of these teams correctly for a 2/2 result. The overall score for the conference finalists leaves them with a 3/4 score.

STANLEY CUP FINALISTS

They correctly chose Philadephia as the Eastern Conference representative, but opted to go with the President's Trophy winner over the grizzled veterans in Detroit. In the end, Detroit and Philly played in the final, so this is a 1/2 score.

STANLEY CUP WINNER

With THN choosing Philly and Colorado, The Hockey News opted for the Avalanche to win. As we know, the Avalanche didn't make the 1997 Stanley Cup Final, so THN gets an 0/1 score on this part.

WEIRD PREDICTIONS

As written in The Hockey News, the writers opted to not go with award winners this season due to "battered egos". Instead, they opted for predictions that they seemed to believe would happen over the course of the season. Not all of these are entirely verifiable as some are meant for humour, but let's take the five predictions that are easily verifiable. I'll award one point for each of these predictions if they happened.

• RAY BOURQUE IS AN ALL-STAR. He played in the 1997 NHL All-Star Game, so I'll give THN the point for this one.
• ED BELFOUR WILL WIN 20 GAMES. Belfour has won 20 games in every season of the 1990s before this one, and he had himself one terrible season in 1996-97 as he won just 11 games with Chicago before a trade to San Jose saw him win three more games for a total of 14 wins in '96-97. This prediction was wrong.
• KEVIN HATCHER WILL SCORE NEAR 79 POINTS WITH PITTSBURGH. He only scored 54 points, and never hit that total again. This prediction was wrong. And for the record, the Penguins trading Zubov for Hatcher was one of their worst moves in the history of the franchise.
• WHOEVER CLAUDE LEMIEUX PLAYS FOR WILL WIN THE CUP. He was not a Red Wing by season's end, so this prediction is wrong.
• CALIFORNIA TEAMS WILL BE SHUTOUT OF THE PLAYOFFS. Except Anaheim wasn't. This prediction is wrong.

In what might seemed to be easily-predicted trends, THN was 1/5 in these predictions. Yes, two of them - Lemieux and the California teams - are based on their standings predictions, but this is why one needs to tread carefully when making future predictions based on flawed standings. Points totals and wins totals from players can swing wildly based on a number of variables as well, so those bold predictions made by THN may have needed some review as well.

The final tally on this season is 17.5 out of 55 possible points, meaning The Hockey News was 31.8% correct in its predictions. Again, I should remind everyone that is a low score doesn't mean that they were wrong all over the place. It simply means that predicting the hardest part of this - standings for all 26 teams - is incredibly difficult and hard to predict. They did improve from the 23% accuracy we saw in 1995-96, but they're now 0-for-2 on predicting the right team who will win the Stanley Cup. If you're a bettor in Vegas, that's not the kind of accuracy you need.

We'll see how future seasons play out with these predictions and if THN can continue improve upon their scores year after year as we move forward chronologically!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!