The 1998-99 Predictions

For the first time in a while, The Hockey News had to expand its coverage of the NHL by one team as the Nashville Predators joined the party! If you're curious, they were ranked as a "D" grade by the magazine's staff, the lowest mark of all 27 NHL teams. Needless to say, they weren't in the Stanley Cup Final predictions, but that seems to be ok since the first three seasons of predictions have been anything but reliable when it comes to accuracy. I found it ironic that the THN Yearbook didn't have a feature on the Nashville Predators whatsoever. No story on how they came to be, why they chose the name and logo of the Predators, no information on how they evaluated players, nothing. I guess 1998 was a different time when this kind of big news didn't matter for a Yearbook.

After having three years of Toronto Maple Leafs as cover players, The Hockey News opted for Edmonton's Doug Weight as their cover player in 1998-99. With the Oilers eliminating the Avalanche in shocking fashion in the Stanley Cup Playoffs in the previous season, this choice seemed reasonable based on Edmonton's prairie region status and their Canadian placement. I will say that I'm glad it's not a Maple Leafs player.

As stated yesterday, The Hockey News veered into a straight shot of predicting the Stanley Cup champion after making a pile of predictions in the previous two yearbooks. Their accuracy took a major hit, though, as they went 0-for-2 on their predictions in 1997-98, so they needed to find their way back to respectability with this year's prediction on the Stanley Cup winner since they only made that prediction in the 1998-99 THN Yearbook.

Here is that prediction made by staff writer Mark Brender.

If you read closely, Mark throws his colleague, Steve Dryden, under the provebrial bus as Dryden had Brender write the reasons why the Wings wouldn't repeat last season despite Brender apparently not believing a word of it. He states that Mike Brophy witnessed Brender choose the Wings as Stanley Cup champions one year earlier, so we'll take him at his word on that. His choice for the 1999 Stanley Cup champion, as seen above, is pretty clear.

PREDICTION

According to The Hockey News, the Stanley Cup will return to Detroit for the third season in a row, so let's check this all-or-nothing prediction.

• DETROIT WILL THREE-PEAT. Except they didn't, losing to the Colorado Avalanche in six games in the second round of the playoffs. It was a rather epic collapse by the defending Stanley Cup champions as they went up 2-0 in the series after winning both games to Denver and allowing just two goals in the process only to lose the next four games in a row, being outscored 19-7, to end the possibility of a three-peat.

Adding some self-induced salt to their self-induced wound, Brender's own words may haunt him as he wrote, "Don't be misled by our team-by-team rankings which appear on the opposite page. There, the Dallas Stars receive an A grade, better than Detroit's A-minus. On paper, rankings are deserved. Come playoff time, rankings mean diddly."

If we go back to the 1998 Stanley Cup Playoffs, Dallas lost to Detroit in the Western Conference Final. They saw what it took to win a Stanley Cup, and they learned from it in a big way. They added Brett Hull in the off-season and got a healthy Joe Nieuwendyk back after he missed the series against Detroit - one where the loss of Nieuwendyk allowed the Wings to neutralize Mike Modano - so they believed they had the necessary firepower and veteran leadership to get to the promised land. Usually, teams that suffer a soul-crushing loss in a previous season are highly motivated to erase that memory the following season as well.

And yet Brender went with Detroit, an old team who had played a lot of hockey over two seasons, as THN's pick. As you know, Dallas won the 1999 Stanley Cup, giving The Hockey News it's 0/1 score, a second season of 0.0% accuracy, and it's fourth-straight season of not predicting the Stanley Cup winner correctly. If you're using The Hockey News to place bets in Las Vegas regarding who will win the Stanley Cup, you're bleeding money at this point.

At some point, I'd hope that The Hockey News will look at history, trends, and past performances as part of their evalution for future years. I'm not sure we're quite at the analytical phase of the NHL, but one stat clearly jumps out at me from the last four days - oh-fer-four. Can The Hockey News break that oh-fer streak in 1999-2000 as we start a new millenium?

We'll find out tomorrow.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!