Friday, 23 October 2020

The 2013-14 Predictions

The 2013-14 NHL season saw a number of changes that affected the predictions made by The Hockey News in their annual Yearbook. The conferences were realigned as the Detroit Red Wings and Columbus Blue Jackets shifted to the Eastern Conference while the Winnipeg Jets left the Southeast Division for a cozier abode with teams in the middle of the continent. The NHL also scrapped the six divisions it was using for four divisions with 16 teams split evenly in the Eastern Conference and 14 teams split evenly in the Western Conference for the time being. The playoff format was also changed to reflect the divisions as well as the first two rounds would be played against teams within one's division unless one was a wild card team. Oh, and the NHL introduced wild card teams. All of this will affect the scoring that I had setup, so let's get ready for an entirely new points system here as The Hockey News goes divisional!

Before we get to the new scoring system, we're back to the two usual suspects on the cover as the Oilers and Flames are back on the cover. The key difference? While THN serve up another helping of Taylor Hall as an Oiler, we have a new Flame as Mike Cammalleri takes over the cover duties from Jarome Iginla! I mean, the Jets have been in town now for three seasons, Vancouver is doing wonderful things with the Sedins, Ottawa and Montreal have been competitive, and who gives a damn about Toronto? It's all Edmonton and Calgary out here on the prairie region. Again.

Because the NHL went divisional, The Hockey News followed suit. As such, there aren't conference standings predictions in this season's THN Yearbook. Instead, there are divisional standings with denotations as to which teams they predict will make the playoffs. Obviously, the top-three teams denoted as making the playoffs would represent the top-three seeds of the division while any teams below those denotations would be the wild cards. Again, there are no standings or point totals, so we're shooting from the hip here when it comes to creating a scoring system.

As we go through each division, it will be an all-or-nothing for placement within those standings - either you're right or wrong here, THN - for a total of 30 points. Playoff teams, denoted by THN, will be worth 0.5 points if they made the playoffs that season for a chance at 8 total points. In saying that, I'll also add four points for division winners and four points for the right wild card teams for 8 more points. And there will be 2 points available for the Stanley Cup champion and finalist prediction - all-or-nothing - for a total of 48 points.

Here are the standings predictions as per The Hockey News.
I took some creative liberties in chopping up the picture.

STANDINGS

The final Metropolitan Division standings in 2014 in the NHL are listed first with The Hockey News' predicted team to finish in that same spot listed second. Playoff teams are listed in capital letters for each side.
      1. PITTSBURGH (NHL) vs. PITTSBURGH (THN)
      2. NEW YORK RANGERS vs. NEW YORK RANGERS
      3. PHILADELPHIA vs. PHILADELPHIA
      4. COLUMBUS vs. Columbus
      5. Washington vs. New York Islanders
      6. New Jersey vs. Washington
      7. Carolina vs. Carolina
      8. New York Islanders vs. New Jersey
THN had five of eight teams in the right spots for 5/8 points.

The Atlantic Division follows the same scoring.
      1. BOSTON (NHL) vs. BOSTON (THN)
      2. TAMPA BAY vs. DETROIT
      3. MONTREAL vs. OTTAWA
      4. DETROIT vs. MONTREAL
      5. Ottawa vs. TORONTO
      6. Toronto vs. Tampa Bay
      7. Florida vs. Buffalo
      8. Buffalo vs. Florida
THN had just one of the eight teams in the right spot for 1/8 points here. We can now see the full playoff picture, and it would appear that THN had six of eight playoff teams correctly identified 3/4 points. They did score 2/2 on the division winners, but missed on both Columbus and Detroit being wild card teams for 0/2 there. All totaled, the Eastern Conference predictions scored THN a final score of 11/24.

The Pacific Division follows the same scoring.
      1. ANAHEIM (NHL) vs. LOS ANGELES (THN)
      2. SAN JOSE vs. SAN JOSE
      3. LOS ANGELES vs. VANCOUVER
      4. Phoenix vs. ANAHEIM
      5. Vancouver vs. EDMONTON
      6. Calgary vs. Phoenix
      7. Edmonton vs. Calgary
THN had just San Jose in the right spot for 1/7 points.

The Central Division follows the same scoring.
      1. COLORADO (NHL) vs. CHICAGO (THN)
      2. ST. LOUIS vs. ST. LOUIS
      3. CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
      4. MINNESOTA vs. Dallas
      5. DALLAS vs. Nashville
      6. Nashville vs. Colorado
      7. Winnipeg vs. Winnipeg
THN had just two of the seven teams in the right spot for 2/7 points here. We can now see the full playoff picture, and it would appear that THN had six of eight playoff teams correctly predicted for 3/4 points. They missed on both on the division winners for a 0/2 score, and missed on both Minnesota and Dallas being wild card teams for 0/2 there as well. All totaled, the Western Conference predictions scored THN a final score of 6/22.

STANLEY CUP WINNER

Ryan Kennedy was handed the byline on the predictions, and he had the magazine putting all its eggs in the baskets of two teams as they predicted by the Stanley Cup champion and the finalist. Once more unto the breach for The Hockey News!
  • ST. LOUIS BLUES WILL DEFEAT THE PITTSBURGH PENGUINS TO WIN THE STANLEY CUP. Except they didn't as the 2014 Los Angeles Kings used five games to eliminate the New York Rangers to win the Stanley Cup. St. Louis, the chosen team by The Hockey News, played just six games in the playoffs, losing to the Chicago Blackhawks after leading 2-0 in the series on the strength of two home overtime wins before dropping four-straight games where the scored just six goals. Pittsburgh, for their part, were eliminated in the second round in six games by the eventual finalist in the Rangers.
THN scored 0/2 in these predictions, and didn't predict a finalist for the third-straight year.

The Hockey News seems to do better when there are less teams in the various mixes as their predictions this season scored them 17 out of 48 possible points for a 35.4% accuracy. Again, betting on a Stanley Cup champion or either team as a finalist would have meant zero return in Vegas, so this is literally just an exercise to see if they'll ever correctly predict a champion again.

We'll see how future seasons play out with these predictions and if THN can continue improve next season as we move forward chronologically!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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