While social media is running rampant with statistics about the Maple Leafs and their lack of playoff success, it should be noted that Carey Price was simply as good as he's ever been over the last three games of this series. When one thinks of clutch Carey Price moments, this series should be lumped into that category based on some of the big saves he made to help the Canadiens advance. One has to think that had it been Jake Allen and not Carey Price in goal for the Canadiens, we likely wouldn't be talking about them advancing.
With the victory over the Maple Leafs tonight, Montreal and Winnipeg will grapple to see who gets the privilege of facing the winner of the Colorado-Vegas series that sees the Avalanche lead 1-0. Because Winnipeg finished 14th-overall and Montreal finished 18th-overall, they're the lowest-ranked teams by regular season records, so they'll play the top team remaining out of the final four teams, and Colorado won the President's Trophy with 82 points and by winning the season series over the Vegas Golden Knights who finished with 82 points.
Depending on which team advances from the Colorado-Vegas series and assuming cross-border travel is still prohibited, either the Jets or Canadiens would likely move into the arena of the team that lost the Colorado-Vegas series. However, that's putting the cart way ahead of the horse, so let's look at what to expect from Winnipeg and Montreal in this series to determine the North Division champions!
As mentioned above, this series features two former Vezina Trophy winners going save-for-save as Carey Price and Connor Hellebuyck look to back their teams to victory. I'm not going to fall into any sort of recency bias here because Carey Price just won three-straight games to eliminate the 2021 Maurice "Rocket" Richard Trophy winner while Connor Hellebuyck dismissed the 2021 Art Ross Trophy winner in four-straight games. Without a shadow of a doubt, goaltending will play a massive factor in this series, and I have to say this is a WASH based on the play of both netminders.
Team defence is a big focal point for both squads, and there's no denying that Winnipeg's defence was up to the task against McDavid, Draisaitl, and the Oilers. We shouldn't discount, however, the Montreal Canadiens who, admittedly, took some time in figuring out how to play against the Leafs, but eventually got it down to a science when it came to defending the slot and front of the net. Both teams showed real commitment to defence, but I like the how the Jets shut down both McDavid and Draisaitl. Yes, Montreal did slow down Matthews and Marner, but the slightest of edges in defensive play has to go to the JETS in this series.
Team offence seems like it would be pretty heavily biased towards the Jets, but I think there's a fallacy if we let it sink in. Tyler Toffoli and Nick Suzuki are the usual suspects at the top of the points leaderboard for the Canadiens, but Montreal has 14 players with a point in these playoffs to date, and they have five players with two-or-more goals. The Jets, meanwhile, have 16 players with a point and they four players with two goals, so both squads have shown scoring depth needed to win playoff series. I hate to say this, but team defence and goaltending likely will determine the winner in this series, so I'm giving the offences a WASH based solely on what we've seen so far.
The special teams units for both teams have had their ups and downs in the opening series, but Winnipeg made good on 30.0% of their power-play opportunities (3/10) against Edmonton to put them squarely ahead of the efficiency shown by Montreal's 15.8% efficiency (3/19) against Toronto. Montreal did start to show some life on the power-play in the final few games, though, so they'll need to carry that into Winnipeg if they hope to beat the Jets. On the other side of the coin, Montreal was marginally better with an 87.0% penalty kill efficiency compared to Winnipeg's 81.8% efficiency, but it should be noted that Montreal did scored a shorthanded goal and led the league over the season. That counts for something here, so I'm giving the CANADIENS a slight edge in the special teams based on recent play.
If you're adding everything up, this seems like a pretty even series by my count, but here's the "x-factor" for me: rest or rust. The Canadiens will come into Winnipeg on one day's rest before playing four games in six nights again. Assuming that Carey Price starts all four of those games, Price's save pecentages in the playoffs on back-to-back nights is .889 while getting one day's rest sees his percentage jump to .930. That's not bad at all when one considers he just went through seven games of gruelling hockey.
Hellebuyck, who comes in with more than four days rest to start this series, posts a save percentage of .970 after that period of time while his one-day rest percentage is .953 and his back-to-back percentage is .925. If we're mapping this out based on save percentages, Game One sees Hellebuyck at .970 to Price's .930, Games Two and Three see Hellebuyck with a .953 save percentage to Price's .930, and Game Four is the second half of the back-to-back which has Hellebuyck sporting a .925 save percentage to Price's .889.
Unless Connor Hellebuyck is extremely rusty, the x-factor favours his performance for the JETS over a possibly tiring performance from Price. That doesn't mean the Jets will sweep based on those numbers, but you have to think that Connor Hellebuyck will be at his best when his body has had time to recover while Price played longer.
Will I be right? No one is certain until they play the games. What I am going to do, though, is predict that the Jets will prevail in six games over the Montreal Canadiens as the fatigue factor catches up with the Canadiens, especially in Games Four and Five in that back half of the back to back and then travelling back to Winnipeg for the fifth game.
This series starts on Wednesday with the North Division title on the line!
Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!
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