Doing The Prep Work

As we get set for the U SPORTS National Women's Hockey Championship that's taking place in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan from March 14-17, there's always some prep work to do in figuring out which players and which teams could and should make an impact at the tournament. Being one of the few places where people come to find information, HBIC has always felt it was imperative to get this information right, but a lot of analysis is done through historical trends, games, and information. Where does one go to get all that information in one place? Well, it seems like HBIC is going to do the heavy lifting there again.

If you've been following this blog since April of last year or longer, you likely saw the grid I posted that showed every team's finish that has appeared at the National Championship since 1998 when the first tournament was played. It was used by a few people at the tournament last season in Montreal because it provided a historical perspective on the tournament, but I admit that it was incomplete. In saying that, I went back to work on making it better.

The one thing that I felt was missing from the historical look at how the tournament was won and lost were the head-to-head matchups between teams. Obviously, there are teams who have played at a number of tournaments and those who have played less than five games total. The McGill Martlets have 55 games at National Championships to their name while the Alberta Pandas have 47 contests in which they played. Would it surprise you to know that the team with the third-most games in which they've appeared at the StFX X-Women and that they'll either tie or move past Alberta this season depending on results? That kind of information matters.

The historical look at team-vs-team also gives us some interesting data on how teams have fared at the tournaments over the years. McGill and Alberta won a number of medals over the course of the years, so you know their records must be pretty good. According to the data, McGill has a .655 winning percentage at Nationals against all competition while Alberta has a .702 winning percentage. StFX, meanwhile, has just two medals in school history, and their winning precentage of .244 reflects the struggles they've had against their competition. A large part of that problem is their 0-12 record against both McGill and Alberta, but that's how the matchups align.

Team-vs-team records also give us some insight into the overall success of conference-vs-conference as well. If either UNB or StFX can get a matchup against Toronto or Waterloo, the winning percentage of the AUS-vs-OUS is .405 - not great, but better than the alternatives. I say that because the AUS has a .111 winning percentage against Canada West and .172 against RSEQ teams all-time. In short, these trends, combined with a team's individual head-to-head record, give us a fairly good idea on the chances of success for each team at the upcoming tourament.

For the Saskatchewan Huskies, they also can factor in how past hosts have done at the tournament. Only twice have the hosts won the gold medal - in 1998 at the very first CIS Championship when Concordia won, and in 2003 when the Alberta Pandas hosted and won the tournament. In the 21 years since Alberta turned the feat, only Western has come close when they were the silver medalists in 2018. Home-ice advantage might be a thing in a series, but a single-game elimination proves it's not much help.

The good news is that the host team has only finished at the bottom of the tournament three times - in 2007 when Ottawa finished sixth, in 2010 when StFX finished sixth, and in 2014 when St. Thomas finished sixth. Since the expansion to eight teams in 2015, no host team has ever finished in eighth-place, but both Calgary in 2015 and UPEI in 2019 have finished in seventh-place. And just for the record, if Saskatchewan does meet top-ranked Concordia in the quarterfinal round, Saskatchewan is 0-2 all-time against the Stingers with a 4-2 loss in 2018 and a 2-0 loss in 2022 on their record.

Remember that this look at the history of the tournament doesn't factor in that teams feature different players and systems over the years. StFX and Toronto have played five times in their history, but only once in the last decade where Toronto won 4-0 in 2023. Should we be giving the same weight to the four meetings that happened long before that 2023 game? I'm not sure that a 3-1 Toronto win in 1999 matters to anyone when the vast majority of the players who meet today hadn't been born yet. We need to remember that history may tell a story, but that story is far from being complete or relevant in determining results at this year's tournament.

There's a reason why the games are still played, and I think Mount Royal showed everyone why that's important last season. Historical trends, past performances, and team-vs-team analysis may give us an idea as to who has the best chance of winning a game or the tournament, but Mount Royal showed everyone last year that the only game that matters is the next one. With the right preparation, some timely scoring, solid defence and goaltending, and a pinch of luck, any team competing at the tournament can win the whole thing.

Get ready for a fun tournament in Saskatoon, folks.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!