Better, But Worse?

When Kyle Dubas took over the general manager's office in Pittsburgh, I had hoped that we'd see a number of changes that would include getting younger, getting faster, and getting more productive talent all over the ice. The jury is still out on all three of those things. Noel Acciari seems like a good bottom-six guy, Ryan Graves has shown solid play, and Lars Eller is a great replacement for Nick Bonino. On the other side of the coin, though, the questionable moves include a long-term deal for oft-injured, often-streaky Tristan Jarry, no deal reached yet to bring back Danton Heinen, and Ty Smith is sitting at home awaiting a call as well. Perhaps the most baffling rumour around Penguins' camp, however, is Dubas' interest in acquiring Sharks defender Erik Karlsson.

Look, there's no doubt that the Norris Trophy winner had an incredible season last year with the Sharks, but Erik Karlsson's skillset doesn't really fit what the Penguins need when it comes to cap relief, defensive play, or getting faster and younger unless the return to San Jose includes both Jeff Carter and Jeff Petry. Adding Karlsson into Petry's spot would be a fantastic upgrade on that one player, but I'm confused why Dubas is putting all his eggs in the Karlsson basket when there's a player being shopped who would make the Penguins better overall while costing the salary cap less.

It was very clear that the lack of talent in the crease was an enormous problem for the Toronto Maple Leafs during Dubas' entire time with the franchise, and it seems he's poised to continue that trend in Pittsburgh with the return of Jarry, having Casey DeSmith in camp, the signing of Alex Nedeljkovic, and the addition of Magnus Hellberg. Pinning his team's success on a hope and a prayer that someone emerges as an elite goaltender out of that group might be Dubas' modus operandi as a general manager, but it seems foolish when he could have a potential perennial Vezina candidate in his crease tomorrow.

Connor Hellebuyck has made it clear to the Winnipeg Jets that has zero interest in signing another deal to remain in the Manitoba capital beyond his current contract. While signing Jarry certainly cost less than what Hellebuyck's extension would cost had the Penguins acquired him, there's a significant gap between Hellebyck's consistent play and Jarry's rather inconsistent play.

Yes, the trade would have cost the Penguins some assets, what they would have received from Winnipeg likely would have made them a better team overall compared to adding Karlsson from San Jose at a much higher cap hit for the next few seasons. While San Jose is in a full rebuild under Mike Grier, the Jets have maintained that they're simply retooling as they enter the 2023-24 season. To me, that would make it easier to broker a deal involving a veteran player to Winnipeg than it would with San Jose.

Which veteran player goes to Winnipeg is an extremely difficult ask, though, as nearly all of Pittsburgh's forwards have some sort of no-movement or no-trade clause. Mikael Granlund might be the only forward that the Penguins can offer, and I suspect the Jets would balk at that player being included in a Hellebuyck deal. On the blue line, one of Jan Rutta, Pierre-Olivier Joseph, or Chad Ruewedel would have to be offered as the other four defenders on the Penguins' roster all have no-trade clauses as well.

Like I said, Dubas would need to be creative in his efforts, but he should be pursuing Hellebuyck with everything he has in order to take one last run with Crosby, Malkin, and Letang still on his roster. The return in acquiring Hellebuyck, however, would likely be more wins over the remainder of the careers of the "Big Three", and that should be what Dubas is focussed on achieving.

Make no mistake that Erik Karlsson is an upgrade on virtually any and all defenders on Pittsburgh's roster who aren't named Letang. I can't and won't deny that fact. But when it comes to the lack of cap space, the unimpressive goaltending, and the closing window on potentially another Stanley Cup run with three players who likely will end up in the Hall of Fame, the wiser investment would be for Dubas to pursue Connor Hellebuyck over Erik Karlsson.

Any time that a team can add a perennial all-star to its roster, it should certainly try to make that happen. However, when one has to choose between perennial all-stars to add to one's roster, there are more factors than simply "winning". Kyle Dubas, for all his knowledge and abilities in building a team, still apparently hasn't learned that all great teams have a solid foundation from the crease out.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!