Get Ahead And Stay Ahead

If there's one truth that seems to hold true in each and every season of Canada West women's hockey, it's the concept of scoring first in any and all games. As we know, Canada West has a reputation among the other conferences where it's believed that the teams play stingy defence and overly physical hockey. Some may believe that to be true, but the defence part may have some legs as we look at the statistics through the first half of the 2024-25 season where teams score first. As I do every year, I'll post the statistics that may amaze you when it comes to scoring that all-important first goal based on the first half of the season.

In total, there were 74 games played in Canada West women's hockey before the break with no team playing more than 18 games and no team playing less than 16 games. That means there were 74 first goals scoring at some point as none finished in a 1-0 shootout victory, and that means that no team can have more than 18 first goals to its name. In fact, the most first goals scored by any team was 12 while the least first tallies totalled three with an average of 8.2 first goals.

The statistics are overwhelming when one considers that teams who scored first ended up with a first-half record of 48-7-7-12 or, since extra-time wins count the same as regulation wins, a 55-7-12 record. Of 148 possible points, teams that scored first grabbed 112 of those points, resulting in a points percentage of 82.4%! While every game is a 50/50 possibility of a win or loss, imagine knowing that scoring first gives a team an 82% chance of recording at least one point. There isn't one coach in Canada West who wouldn't take that offer!

Further to this, scoring first also gives that team a 74.3% chance of winning the game in regulation time or extra time, and a 64.8% chance of winning in regulation time simply by lighting the lamp first. Say what you want about teams that score the most in any game, but scoring first improves your odds of winning from 50% to 74% simply by getting a number on the scoreboard first. You can't argue with those kinds of statistics, and I doubt any Canada West coach isn't looking for that kind of advantage when it comes to winning.

Before we get to the team statistics, it shouldn't be surprising that 71.6% of first goals were scored in the first period for a total of 53. The second period saw 15 first goals scored as 20.2% were scored in the middle frame, the third period saw just four first goals scored for 5.4% of the total, and overtime saw two first goals scored as 2.7% were scored in extra time with the score tied at zeroes.

The team who jumped out in front in the first period most often was the Mount Royal Cougars as they lit the lamp nine times in the opening frame. The Alberta Pandas hold the second period's lead with four first goals scored in the middle period. The Regina Cougars have two of the four third period first goals, and Alberta and Saskatchewan each have a first goal in overtime.

So how did your team do? I'll post the teams below in order of points percentage from highest to lowest along with each team's record after scoring first. Let's look at these first-goal standings.

• UBC: 11-0-0 = 1.000
• Trinity Western: 6-0-0 = 1.000
• Manitoba: 7-0-1 = 0.938
• Alberta: 9-1-1 = 0.864
• Mount Royal: 9-1-2 = 0.833
• Calgary: 6-1-1 = 0.813
• Regina: 5-0-4 = 0.778
• Saskatchewan: 2-2-2 = 0.500
• MacEwan: 0-2-1 = 0.167

As you can see above, both British Columbia-based teams are perfect when scoring first, and UBC simply does it a lot more than Trinity Western. That being said, both teams hold perfect records when hitting the scoreboard first so teams should be aware of this when beginning series with these two teams. Further to this, Trinity Western is 3-9-0 when they don't score first, so getting ahead of the Spartans is a good tactic when playing them.

Manitoba has only dropped one point of a possible 16 when they score first, so it's fairly clear that the 9-6-1 Bisons play better with a lead than when they're playing catch-up. It should also be concerning that the Bisons don't rally very well one they're behind as 15 of 19 points they've accumulated on the season have come when they score first. Going 2-6-0 after giving up the first goal doesn't bode well if they fall behind in the playoffs. They'll need to be better in that area.

Alberta and Mount Royal, like UBC, score first a lot and win a lot, so it's pretty clear that they get ahead and stay ahead once they do. Alberta stumbled somewhat in October with a 3-1-1 record only to bounce back with a 6-0-0 November while Mount Royal jumped out to a 6-0-0 start in October only to fall back to earth in November with a 3-1-2 month. With a month between games, which version of these two teams will we get in January and February?

Calgary was doing a good job of getting out in front and staying in front in October when they were 4-0-1, but they stopped scoring first in November and ended the month with a 2-1-0 record. Calgary seems to play better when they score first as 13 of their 14 points came in games where they notched the first goal. What should be concerning is that Calgary falls behind and stay behind to the tune of an 0-7-1 record when scored against first. Clearly, the Dinos have some work to do in the catch-up part of the game.

Regina hasn't lost a game in regulation time when scoring the first goal, but they haven't exactly closed out games with authority when they light the lamp first either. Regina, like Manitoba and Calgary, needs to score first to have a shot at wins and points as they hold a 3-4-0 record when they don't score first. Closing out games when they do score first would also help immensely.

Saskatchewan didn't pick up their first two wins of the season until Novemebr 29 and 30 when they visited MacEwan, but they did score first in both games. As such, they won both games. The Huskies struggle scoring goals in general with just 18 to date, but six of those have been first goals. It's just that they don't add many more after that to support that first goal. The Huskies need to find goal scorers to not only score first goals, but second, third, and fourth goals as they've scored more than one goal in just three games this season.

MacEwan's woes in scoring first are part of a bigger problem. They simply don't score enough in any situation as they only have 12 goals in 16 games of which three were first goals, they only have five power-play goals (yet still rank above Calgary), they have three players leading the team with two goals apiece, and have been shutout seven times in 16 games. To date, both their wins came via shootout, and their three extra time losses saw them score one goal over those three games. Forget scoring first for the Griffins because they just need to score anytime a lot more.

So what does it all mean?

Well, it seems pretty elementary in saying that the seven Canada West teams who are jockeying for playoff positions all do well when they score first. Scoring first pushes a chance to win the game to nearly 75% while scoring first gives that team who hit the scoreboard first a 65% chance of winning in regulation. Those numbers can't be argued based on what the results were in the first half of the season, and it proves once again that scoring first in Canada West matters in the big picture. Get ahead and stay ahead, right?

I'll track this through the second half of the season and into the playoffs so we get a full picture of what getting the lead and playing with the lead looks like for the nine teams, but I suspect that 80% mark to be pretty near what we see as a points percentage at the season's end. The 74.3% mark will likely also be close to the final winning percentage as well, but we'll see what kind of surprises the second half has in store.

What is evident after this examination is that scoring first gives most Canada West teams a better-than-good chance at earning points.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!