The Last One In

You were warned, and the NHL Guardian Project images are continuing today as we have our sixteenth and final team who has clinched an NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs berth. The Montreal Canadiens secured the second wild card spot tonight, leaving the Columbus Blue Jackets on the outside of the playoff picture. While Montreal may have surprised a lot of people as they flirted with a playoff spot for a while, the Blue Jackets' push for a playoff spot was impressive. It did come up short, though, and that leaves the Canadiens to face the Washington Capitals in their series. The playoff picture is complete!

The Canadiens needed at least one point against the Carolina Hurricanes tonight, but they took no chances as they swiped both points with a 4-2 win over the Hurricanes. Kaiden Guhle had a pair of goals while Sam Montembeault made 28 saves as the Habs completed their home schedule with a 10-0-2 run over their final 12 home games. The last time that the Capitals and Canadiens met in the playoffs was in the 2010 Eastern Conference Quarterfinals when the Canadiens upset the Capitals in seven games. Could it happen again?

The Capitals were 2-0-1 against the Canadiens this year, so things don't look good if we look at recent results. However, it should be noted that the three games against Washington came before the Four Nations Face-Off, and the Habs went on a bit of a heater since that break, posting a 15-5-6 record through to the end of the season. I'm not saying that streak helps, but confidence can go a long way for a team looking to upset the favourite in a series.

It should be noted that the Montreal Canadiens last made the playoffs in 2021 when they went on a tear through the brackets, eliminating the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Winnipeg Jets, and the Vegas Golden Knights before losing to the Lightning in the Stanley Cup Final in five games. Because that playoff year was played in the bubble, there were no games played in front of the Montreal faithful. In fact, there hasn't been a full Bell Centre for a playoff game since April 20, 2017 where they lost 3-2 in overtime to the New York Rangers in Game Five of their first-round series. The Rangers won that series in six games.

With no recent history outside of the three regular-season games they played this year, the pressure is squarely on the Capitals, especially if Logan Thompson is unable to recover from his upper-body injury for the start of the series. If Thompson can't go, it seems like Charlie Lindgren will get the start, and his .866 save percentage hasn't looked good as the Capitals have been sloppy in their defensive zone. The Capitals will also be looking for forward Aliaksei Protas to return at some point, but it seems he will likely miss the start of the series as well after he had his foot cut against Chicago on April 4.

The Canadiens are metaphorically playing with house money as they enter the playoffs. They were 32nd-overall in the NHL of 32 teams on November 15 and they were in last place in the Eastern Conference with an 11-16-3 record on December 16. If you watch Hockey Night in Canada, you know how often Elliotte Friedman talks about teams that are out of the playoff on American Thanksgiving have a very low chance of making the playoffs. This Montreal team just beat those odds, and I feel like they may scare the Capitals in this series.

Will they win? Probably not, and it only gets harder with both Thompson and Protas back in the Capitals' lineup. The Canadiens need Suzuki, Caufield, Laine, Demidov, Hutson, and Montembeault to play like Lafleur, Mahovlich, Shutt, Cournoyer, Robinson, and Dryden. Juraj Slafkovsky needs to find ways to be effective, Mike Matheson has to be good defensively, and Jake Evans has to be a premiere shutdown forward. In short, it's going to take every player on the Canadiens' roster to slow the Capitals down and win four games.

The Canadiens started the season as the NHL's second-youngest team, but they have matured nicely. I'm not sure it's enough to get them by a veteran Capitals team, but there's a reason they play the games. If the Canadiens can look as good as they did tonight against the Hurricanes when the series against Washington opens, they have a shot at upsetting the Capitals just like they did in 2010.

If the Canadiens continue to play good hockey as they have over the last six weeks, the improbable could be possible this spring!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!