Stan's Gonna Stan

You can try to convince me that Edmonton Oilers general manager Stan Bowman is a competent hockey executive, but I'm going warn you up front that you're going to fail. Bowman's rise to the general manager position in Chicago was in 2009 after the Blackhawks fired Dale Tallon, and his work to win the Stanley Cup in 2010 was all but done for him. Yes, he added a few minor pieces, but the effort it took to "build" the Blackhawks for their five-year window where they won three Stanley Cups was also fraught with mistakes that carried on after he resigned in the 2021 season. It seems that Bowman's continuing that poor track record in Edmonton.

The eight-year, $30.8M contract that Bowman gave bottom-six forward Trent Frederic is somewhat baffling as it is inexplicable based on the details that came with the deal. While the $3.85 million average salary might seem reasonable considering the annual increases to the salary cap, Frederic won't likely exceed his 18-goal, 40-point 2023-24 season in Edmonton based on how the team is built. Add in the fact that Frederic has a no-movement clause for four years until he's 31, and you have to wonder what Bowman is thinking.

While the contract's average value does give the Oilers flexibility moving forward, it's hard to imagine many teams giving Trent Frederic just under $4 million per season for 11 minutes of ice time per game. A lot of pundits like what Frederic brought for the Oilers in 22 games in the playoffs, but one goal and four points seems like a serious drop-off when it comes to what $4 million can buy. In any case, the Oilers will give him four years at that rate before the no-movement clause changes to a modified no-trade clause.

Maybe Frederic will find the necessary scoring to make him an effective scoring threat on the Edmonton roster. If he does, they likely won't need the modified no-trade clause built into the final four years of the deal. If the salary cap continues to escalate and Frederic does find the back of the net with regularity, the deal becomes more and more afffordable, making the no-trade clause virtually meaningless. If this is the faith that the Oilers are showing in Frederic with this new contract, why include the clauses in the deal?

I'm not saying that this deal is similar to how bad the Seth Jones deal was in Chicago, but that contract was a disaster for both sides in the Windy City. I can't see Frederic's deal being anywhere close as bad, but why give Frederic four years to prove himself to be that 20-goal, 50-point guy without having the safety of possibly trading him for another asset? Frederic averages about 64 games per season through his first give seasons, so are the Oilers comfortable with a $4-million player if he continues his 2024-25 scoring rate that saw him post an extrapolated nine goals and 17 points in 64 games? Methinks not.

Again, I find myself wondering why NHL GMs simply can't help themselves when it comes to giving inflated contracts to players when there is no one else bidding against them. $3.85 million per season for a guy who hit 40 points once in five seasons seems like a very charitable deal for the player. If Trent Frederic can come back from his injury recovery and prove that 40-point season was no fluke, I'll give full credit to Stan Bowman at that time for betting on a player who had yet to reach his full potential as an NHL player.

Being that Frederic is already 27 years old and the contract will run until he's 35, I don't feel like the Oilers will struggle in paying him. Depending on how Frederic's body holds up, it may be more of a "how many games and how much production will we see" situation, and we know that power forwards break down faster than other players due to the wear-and-tear through which they put their bodies.

I can't fault Trent Frederic for signing this deal as it's very much in his benefit, but this feels like another case of Stan being Stan where his evaluation of talent and his valuation for that player is way off.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!