Saturday, 10 October 2020

The 2002-03 Predictions

While it was officially NHL Free Agency Day yesterday in 2020, we're jumping back into looking at the predictions made by The Hockey News for the 2002-03 season today. Yesterday's venture into the standings predictions caused all sorts of problems for THN's final score in 2001-02 since they forgot that division winners get the 1-2-3 seeds in each conference, so we'll see if they predict the standings correctly or at all this season. That 18.1% accuracy yesterday is a pretty terrible mark, so The Hockey News will likely want a strong set of predictions this season. And they're now 1-for-7 in Stanley Cup-winning team predictions, so they'll need a push there too! Let's get into what was predicted compared to what happened for the 2002-03 NHL season!

For the first time in eight years, we have a non-Toronto and non-Edmonton cover player as Calgary Flames forward Jarome Iginla takes the cover spot this season! While there are still three other teams who have yet to be seen on a prairie region THN Yearbook, the fact that The Hockey News discovered a second Alberta-based NHL team is pretty remarkable. Toronto still has four of the eight covers while Edmonton has three, but Calgary is on the board with their first cover!

The Hockey News is back with another round of standings predictions this year, so we'll go through these predictions as we have before. After a brutal 18.1% accuracy on their predictions one year earlier, it's rebound time for THN if they can get their heads screwed on right regarding the rules of the NHL standings.

Here are the standings predictions as per The Hockey News.
Click on the picture if you'd like to view it at a larger size.

STANDINGS

I'll award one point for every team correctly predicted as to their final conference standing. I'll also award one point for every correctly-predicted playoff team in the right standing, and 0.5 points for a playoff team not in the correct standings spot. That's a potential total of 15 points for the standings plus 8 points for the playoff teams for a total of 23 points per conference in this section.

Hey, they remembered that the division winners get ranked in seeds 1, 2, and 3! Let's award 1 point for each correctly-predicted division winner once more for a total of 3 points per conference, bringing the conference totals to 26 points each!

The final Eastern Conference standings in 2003 in the NHL are listed first with The Hockey News' predicted team to finish in that same spot listed second.
      1. Ottawa (NHL) vs. Philadelphia (THN)
      2. New Jersey vs. Washington
      3. Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
      4. Philadelphia vs. New Jersey
      5. Toronto vs. Ottawa
      6. Washington vs. New York Islanders
      7. Boston vs. Carolina
      8. New York Islanders vs. New York Rangers
      9. New York Rangers vs. Boston
      10. Montreal vs. Montreal
      11. Atlanta vs. Pittsburgh
      12. Buffalo vs. Tampa Bay
      13. Florida vs. Buffalo
      14. Pittsburgh vs. Florida
      15. Carolina vs. Atlanta
There were a handful of really big misses this season that hurt THN. They had just one team - Montreal - finishing in the right spot in the standings for 1 point. They missed on all three division winners for an 0/3 score. They didn't have any of the seeded playoff teams in the right spot, and they only had six of the eight teams correctly making the playoffs for 3 additional points (6 x 0.5). All totaled, The Hockey News scored just 4/26 points for the Eastern Conference.

The Western Conference follows the same listing and scoring for 26 possible points.
      1. Dallas (NHL) vs. Colorado (THN)
      2. Detroit vs. Detroit
      3. Colorado vs. San Jose
      4. Vancouver vs. Dallas
      5. St. Louis vs. Vancouver
      6. Minnesota vs. Edmonton
      7. Anaheim vs. St. Louis
      8. Edmonton vs. Los Angeles
      9. Chicago vs. Phoenix
      10. Los Angeles vs. Anaheim
      11. Phoenix vs. Chicago
      12. Calgary vs. Calgary
      13. Nashville vs. Columbus
      14. San Jose vs. Minnesota
      15. Columbus vs. Nashville
The Western Conference saw THN make up a little ground. They grabbed 2 points for correctly predicting both Detroit and Calgary would finish where they did. They had two of the three divison winners right in Detroit and Colorado for 2/3 points there. They'd grab 1 more point for having Detroit as the second-seeded team in the playoffs, and they'd add 2.5 points for having five of the remaining seven teams making the playoffs for 3.5 points for playoff squads. The final total for the Western Conference was 7.5/26 in 2003.

STANLEY CUP WINNER

Mike Brophy put it all on the line with his prediction in larger font.
As you can see, Brophy staked THN's reputation on the Detroit Red Wings in 2002-03, so let's verify this prediction.
  • DETROIT RED WINGS WILL WIN THE STANLEY CUP. Except they didn't as the 2003 New Jersey Devils hoisted the Stanley Cup. In similar fashion to the 2002 prediction of the Flyers, the Detroit Red Wings played just four playoff games in 2003, getting swept out of the playoffs by the Anaheim Mighty Ducks. Every single game was a one-goal result with two of the four games going to overtime, but the big, scary Red Wings managed just six goals in four games against the Ducks as they watched Anaheim march to the Stanley Cup Final where they eventually were defeated by the Devils in seven games.
In losing as they did, the 2002-03 Red Wings became only the second defending Stanley Cup champions to be swept in four games the following year in a first round series, joining the 1952 Toronto Maple Leafs in that illustrious group. And once more, THN goes 0/1 in their Stanley Cup winner prediction.

The Hockey News did better than their 18.1% accuracy total from one year ago as this season's score of 11.5 out of 53 possible points leaves them at 21.7% accurate. Not their worst total, but still a long way from their best total in 2000-01. With their miss on the Stanley Cup winner, The Hockey News also moved to 1-for-8 so far in our examination on that prediction.

We'll see how future seasons play out with these predictions and if THN can continue improve next season as we move forward chronologically!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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