The Rundown - Monday Edition

It feels somewhat odd writing this article on a Monday, but the holiday season forced the change as I really didn't feel like writing a full examination into Canada West scoring on Christmas Day. In that regard we're here on a Monday to complete that very task as we take a look at something that I knew had been a trend for some time in the four western Canadian provinces, but not to the degree that I discovered. Needless to say, I have alluded to this fact before on numerous occasions, but let's put it into statistical form by showing the numbers that back up my alluisons today on The Rundown!

I have made reference to the importance of blue line scoring on this blog a number of times when it comes to the success of teams. As much as the adage of "defence wins championships" is used in sports today, teams still have to score to reach championship games as well and we all know that one has to score goals to win in hockey. No team has ever won a championship by a 0-0 score.

While I presented primary scoring last week to illustrate who was doing the majority of the scoring in the conference, it became pretty clear that the top-two teams in the conference - UBC and Mount Royal - benefitted greatly from having defenders who regularly hit the scoresheet as both Hannah Koroll and Sophia Gaskell were doing great things for UBC's offence while both Emma Bergesen and Mackenzie Butz were in on MRU's offence often. It should come as no surprise that both teams are competing for top spot in the conference with the teams tied at 1-1 this season in their series.

Before we get to the trend found, let's review who has competed for the Canada West banner in recent years. We'll use this information in our findings in the next couple of sections.

The Finals

• 2022: UBC defeated Saskatchewan 2-0.
• 2020: Alberta defeated Mount Royal 2-0.
• 2019: Alberta defeated Manitoba 2-0.
• 2018: Manitoba defeated Saskatchewan 2-0.
• 2017: UBC defeated Alberta 2-1.
• 2016: UBC defeated Manitoba 2-1.
• 2015: Alberta defeated Manitoba 2-0.

As you can see, three different teams have won the Canada West title in the past seven finals while five teams have participated.

Who Finished Where?

Over those same seasons, here's how the two finalists finished in the season standings. Records are W-L-ETW-ETL except 2021-22 where wins and extra-time wins were made equal in points awarded.

• 2022: UBC (2nd/14-6-0) def. Saskatchewan (5th/11-7-2).
• 2020: Alberta (1st/19-8-1-0) def. Mount Royal (4th/12-4-2-0).
• 2019: Alberta (1st/19-5-4-0) def. Manitoba (2nd/16-5-4-2).
• 2018: Manitoba (1st/19-5-3-1) def. Sask. (2nd/18-7-1-2).
• 2017: UBC (1st/20-4-3-1) def. Alberta (2nd/17-4-4-3).
• 2016: UBC (2nd/13-9-3-3) def. Manitoba (5th/13-13-0-2).
• 2015: Alberta (1st/19-7-1-1) def. Manitoba (3rd/14-7-9-2).

Just for the record, there hasn't been an upset in a Canada West Final since 2012-13 when UBC defeated Calgary. The higher seed has won each and every time since then, so the underdog in 2022-23 will face huge odds for whomever makes the final.

Blue Line Scoring

This is where things should become obvious in terms of the correlation between team success and defender scoring when you see the next numbers posted. I know at least one Canada West coach disagrees with me in the importance of breakouts and defender scoring by having those defenders jump up into the play, but we're seeing more and more defenders in the highest hockey leagues become lethal scorers as coaches look to push offence. Frankly, it's shocking a coach at the Canada West level would disagree with how hockey is trending, but that team is listed below as one of the teams who led the conference in scoring from its defenders.

• 2022: UBC led with 17 goals and 65 points.
• 2020: Alberta was 3rd in goals (7), but led in points (50).
• 2019: Manitoba was 2nd in goals (14), but led in points (59).
• 2018: Manitoba led with 16 goals and 47 points.
• 2017: UBC led with 16 goals and 73 points.
• 2016: Saskatchewan led, but UBC was 2nd in points with 45.
• 2015: UBC led, but Manitoba was 2nd in points with 52.

As shown above, the team that led in scoring from the blue line was one of the two teams to play in the Canada West Final in each of those years. In both 2015 and 2016, the team that led didn't reach the final, but the team that was second in defender scoring did. If you're doing the math, teams that led in defender scoring over the last five seasons in Canada West have gone to Nationals five times, have finished first or second in the conference five times to earn a first-round bye in the playoffs, and have won the Canada West banner four out of five years.

You can't tell me that every Canada West coach and program wouldn't want those odds every season. If there was a 100% of going to Nationals, a 100% chance of earning a first-round bye, and an 80% chance of winning the Canada West banner, every coach would jump at that chance. Even as the trend was developing in 2015 and 2016, it was clear that getting that extra scoring punch from the blue line helped the overall success of the team.

Just for fun, here's how each of the teams have fared in the seasons shown above. Stats are listed by goals/points by defenders as a team. Stats in yellow are Canada West champions for that season while Canada West runner-ups are in red for easier comparisons.

Blue Line Scoring

Team	22-23	2022	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
Alberta	4/37	9/35	7/50	8/40	9/47	8/39	7/39
Calgary	1/13	7/18	7/37	4/23	6/21	9/30	9/38
Lethbridge	--	--	6/30	3/19	0/16	8/26	7/36
MacEwan	5/14	5/19	--	--	--	--	--
Manitoba	5/18	7/26	5/21	14/59	16/47	17/67	9/22
Mount Royal	8/37	9/35	8/31	8/31	2/20	9/30	5/28
Regina	4/18	3/21	8/33	11/36	6/21	3/37	9/48
Saskatchewan	5/28	7/22	9/34	16/39	11/24	6/25	9/48
TWU	9/23	4/10	--	--	--	--	--
UBC	16/53	17/65	11/37	14/45	8/36	16/73	6/45

What Does This Mean?

Based on scoring this season alone, it would appear that one, if not two, of UBC, Mount Royal, and Alberta will compete for the Canada West banner. Mount Royal does have more goals than Alberta from their defenders, so primary scoring factors in here because players that either finish plays or setup goals will undoubtedly do that more often than players who don't. In saying that, don't be surprised if we see a UBC-Mount Royal final this season unless one team below them gets ridiculously hot.

What shouldn't be taken from the table above is a lack of scoring by any team's defenders. Saskatchewan went to Nationals and won a bronze medal last season despite getting just 22 points from its collective group of defenders in Canada West play, and Calgary currently holds a playoff spot despite having the lowest-scoring defenders this season. Winning is harder when you don't get depth scoring, and that's what defender scoring is - depth scoring behind a team's primary offensive weapons.

In saying that, Calgary can make the playoffs this season, but winning the whole thing? That's a different conversation altogether.

Anything Else?

It would appear that Canada West coaches fall into the same problems that NHL coaches do when looking at defenders in that coaches who recruit players are often doing it for their offensive potential only to limit that potential by forcing those defenders to play more defensively at the Canada West level. I'm not saying this happens with every player and each teams' situations are different from one another, but Canada West teams emphasize defence more than they push offence from their blue lines.

Only three times since 2015-16 has a defender recorded 20 points in a season - Julia Flinton had 26 points in 2015-16 for Saskatchewan while Cayle Dillon has 21 in 2019-20 for Alberta and Rylind MacKinnon had 21 last season. 2012-13 was the last time this conference had two defenders with more than 20 points in the same season - Manitoba's Kyleigh Palmer and Calgary's Stephanie Ramsey had 25 apiece.

Will this ever change? It may this season as UBC's Hannah Koroll needs just four points over UBC's final ten games to hit 20 points while Mount Royal's Emma Bergesen needs six in ten games. Both players are also leading the way in primary scoring for defenders, so there seems to be a good chance that both players could hit that mark this season with them playing on the top two offensive teams in the conference.

The Last Word

I often wonder what coaches look at when they're recruiting players to play for their programs. I know some teams take a look at video and sit down with stats to pour over the analytics, but it would seem that the best offensive defenders skate well, carry the puck a lot, and find both shooting and passing lanes. If we're talking about keywords, that would be footwork, puck possession, and vision.

I get that making the jump from AAA or prep hockey requires a renewed look at how the defensive game is played thanks to women being faster, bigger, and stronger, but stifling the offensive skills to prevent a few goals seems antithetical to what every coach claims to be seeking in scoring and offensive production.

Good offensive defenders will find a way to merge an offensive flair with a coach's defensive system, but it make take a few mistakes for players to learn how and when to jump into plays without giving up defensive zone real estate. We've seen both Hannah Koroll and Emma Bergesen develop over the course of two or three seasons into the forces they are today for UBC and Mount Royal, respectively, and they're showing that they can be factors in any game at both ends of the ice. Teammates are following that same development path as well with names like Sophia Gaskell, Mackenzie Butz, Kennesha Miswaggon, and Alex Spence all showing moments of brilliance this season.

Should we really be surprised that their teams are currently atop the Canada West standings? My answer is no based on both the eye test, the statistics in the table above, and the overall trend seen in Canada West women's hockey over the last number of seasons.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!