The Rundown - Nationals Preview
We'll go east to west on this journey, and all records are the teams' combined regular season and playoff records. Everything else is presented as I found it. Let's learn about these eight teams!
The Maritime Teams
Team Offence: 93GF; 2.66 gpg Team Defence: 61GA; 1.74 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: StFX has played a lot of postseason hockey this season, and they've won some big games to help them earn a banner. They're getting a balanced attack with four players having five points or more in seven games, and they've received big goaltending performances from Bianca Zak. They boast an 18.3% power-play efficiency and an 89.6% penalty-kill efficiency, so they have decent special teams numbers. Kamdyn Switzer leads the team with seven points while Landyn Pitts has four goals. They'll need to be solid defensively, but they've shown they can come up big in key moments on both sides of the puck.
WHY THEY WON'T: StFX always seems to run into a giant in their first game, and this year is no exception. StFX has shown a distinct lack of scoring at Nationals as well, so they'll going to have to figure out how to fill the net and keep pucks out of their zone much better than they've historically shown. If they have a glaring weakness, they only scored 13 goals in seven playoff games, and that scoring pace won't do much for them at Nationals where scoring gets harder. They were 4-1 in one-goal games in the playoffs, but that was against two teams they knew well. Nationals won't give them that benefit.
NATIONALS SEEDING: Fourth.
Team Offence: 84GF; 2.55 gpg Team Defence: 61GA; 1.85 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: UNB always has solid players they can send over the boards, and this year's squad is led by Katelyn Scott who led the AUS with 13 goals and 30 points. They'll need more from Olivia Eustace who didn't score in the AUS playoffs despite having 17 points in the regular season, but some of that scoring that was missed was picked up by both Josie Chisholm and Payton Hargreaves. Cassie McCallum had a solid postseason in surrendering just seven goals in five games, and she's good enough to steal a game at Nationals. UNB's power-play clicked at 19.0% this season which should help them, but they have to work hard to draw penalties.
WHY THEY WON'T: Like StFX, UNB's scoring seems to abandon them at Nationals. Scoring just eight goals in five games in the AUS playoffs might say more about UNB's ability to score as the point totals drop dramatically after Scott's AUS-leading totals. No one else on the Reds hit double-digits in goals, so they're going to have to score by committee if they want to make some noise. They'll also need to stay out of the penalty box as their 84.1% penalty-killing efficiency is one of the lowest going into the tournament.
NATIONALS SEEDING: Seventh.
Les Équipes Québécoises
Team Offence: 96GF; 3.84 gpg Team Defence: 87GA; 3.48 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: Bishop's comes in as the great unknown: they've never played on the national stage, they rarely play outside their conference, and they defeated one of the best teams in the country to win the RSEQ banner. Bishop's made adjustments as they lost the first game of the championship before winning Games Two and Three by three-goal margins in each game. They can score in bunches as Maude Pépin, Gabrielle Santerre, and Daphne Boutin all had more than a point-per-game average this season while Justine Turcotte, Noemie Fontaine, and Majorie Bolduc all had nine goals to go along with Pépin's 14 markers. Their power-play wasn't as strong as some may think at 17.3% efficiency, but they strike at five-on-five as well as anyone. Ericka Gagnon's numbers weren't exceptional, but she won big games when it mattered. And that's all that matters.
WHY THEY WON'T: Bishop's strength isn't playing in their own zone. While they made adjustments to defeat Concordia, they gave up a ton of goals this season, and Gagnon's save percentage was was .893 through the regular season. She did improve to .901 in the playoffs, but Bishop's will need to keep teams from peppering their net if they want to be successful. An 83.3% penalty-killing efficiency means that Bishop's should avoid taking penalties if they can, and they showed they don't play well when trailing as defence goes out the window. In short, Bishop's can't fall behind in games or get into penalty trouble if they want to make a run in their first appearance.
NATIONALS SEEDING: Third.
Team Offence: 106GF; 4.08 gpg Team Defence: 47GA; 1.81 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: They're still the Stingers. They had one of the best offences in the nation, they played smothering defence, they had an excellent goaltending tandem between Jordan Verbeek and Ariane Leblanc, and they had the top-four scorers in the RSEQ this season in Emilie Lussier, Jessymaude Drapeau, Emilie Lavoie, and Léonie Philbert. They come to Elmira with a power-play that's clicking at 33.9%, and they kill off 91.1% of all penalties. They've medalled in the last three National Championships, and they know how to win in these one-and-done Nationals games.
WHY THEY WON'T: For the same reason that Bishop's beat Concordia, it takes preparation and adjustments. The Stingers have a lot of weapons and they'll get their chances, but it's managing those chances and taking advantage when they make mistakes. The Mount Royal Cougars did that, the Bishop's Gaiters did that, and now another team will have that chance. There are no obvious weaknesses for this team, but playing a more physical game has affected the Stingers before. That might be one tactic teams look at employing when trying to slow the Stingers down.
NATIONALS SEEDING: Fifth.
The Close-To-Home Teams
Team Offence: 88GF; 2.84 gpg Team Defence: 57GA; 1.84 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: Toronto was one of the best defensive teams when it counted, and they scored a pile of goals in the playoffs against teams who had better defensive records than they did. They didn't boost their offence through ratching up the shots they took, but rather through solid transition offence and preventing chances in their own zone. Their 13.5% power-play is rather pedestrian, but they boosted their penalty-killing to an 85.7% efficiency through that stronger defence. Ashley Delahey had 25 points and Emma Elders had 20 points, but the depth stepped up in the playoffs with Sophie Grawbarger, Aili McKeown, and Taylor Delahey leading the way. Lyla MacKinnon was sensational between the pipes, allowing just six goals in five playoff games. Toronto looks dangerous with multiple weapons and a dedication to defence.
WHY THEY WON'T: As a team, Toronto threw a lot of shots at OUA goalies only to score on 12.9% of those shots in the playoffs. That was up from 8.5% shooting efficiency in the regular season, so will we see a regression back towards the norm? It's very possible since they actually averaged more shots-per-game in the regular season. If their shooting percentage drops, Toronto had better hope their defence holds. Special teams weren't something to write home about either, so Toronto might live and die by its defence and goaltending more than any other team in the tournament. They showed they can do that last season, but will teams figure them out before the final?
NATIONALS SEEDING: Second.
Team Offence: 103GF; 3.32 gpg Team Defence: 59GA; 1.90 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: Waterloo showed they won't be intimidated as they defeated both Laurier and Nipissing in sweeps before losing to Toronto. That attitude should help in the second appearance at Nationals, and they need to bring the same scoring they had throughout the season. Carly Orth and Leah Herrfort had 31 and 25 points, respectively, and they'll need the scoring they got in the postseason from Nikki McDonald who had seven goals and eight points in five games. Kara Mark is solid between the pipes, and she'll give the Warriors credible goaltending. If they take a penalty, the team killed off infractions with a 91.9% efficiency this season, and the Warriors want to give the home crowd something about which they can cheer loudly as they begin the tournament.
WHY THEY WON'T: Toronto frustrated the Warriors with their commitment to defence, and it's likely Waterloo's going to see a better defence than that in their opening game. The Warriors will need to be better than their 15.9% power-play efficiency if they get into a defensive game as special teams play a large role in winning those games, and they cannot suffer defensive lapses and get pinned in their zone for long stretches as I witnessed earlier this year. While they can score their way out of mistakes, that becomes much harder at Nationals so the Warriors need to ensure they're playing a full sixty-minute game against the country's best teams.
NATIONALS SEEDING: Eighth.
The Western Teams
Team Offence: 82GF; 2.48 gpg Team Defence: 35GA; 1.06 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: The Pandas are university hockey's best defensive team statistically. They allowed the least goals-per-game-against this season, and complement that aspect of their game by having solid scoring from Madison Willan with 23 points, Abby Soyko with 20 points, and Jadynn Morden with 18 points. Add in the emergence of Natalie Kieser in the playoffs and the dominance of Grace Glover between the pipes, and the Pandas look like world-beaters. Howie Draper's return to the bench saw this team lock down in one-goal games to the tune of a 17-3 record, and that's the kind of hockey we'll see at Nationals. Don't expect the Pandas to panic with the lead either as they were 19-0 heading into the third period with the lead.
WHY THEY WON'T: The Pandas don't rally when down. The few times they trailed going into the third period this season saw them finish with a 1-3 record in those games. Their power-play isn't as sharp as it once was either, clicking at a 16.8% efficiency, while their penalty-killing finished Canada West play at an 87.4% success rate. Special teams could be where teams can hurt the Pandas. If teams can corral the likes of Soyko, Willan, Morden and Kieser, the rest of the Pandas will need to figure how to dent twine. No one else scored a goal for the Pandas in the Canada West playoffs, so the depth will be tested if the Pandas' weapons are silenced.
NATIONALS SEEDING: First.
Team Offence: 116GF; 3.63 gpg Team Defence: 38GA; 1.19 gpga
WHY THEY'LL WIN: They had four of U SPORTS' highest scorers this season in Grace Elliott, Chanreet Bassi, Mackenzie Kordic, and Annalise Wong. Add in Jacquelyn Fleming, Jaylyn Morris, Makenzie McCallum, and Sophia Gaskell, and this UBC team has more offensive punch than most teams at the tournament. Elise Hugens provides solid netminding behind a strong UBC defence, and this team is lethal on the power-play with a 25.8% efficiency while killing penalties with a 92.5% success rate. There was a reason the Thunderbirds were one of the top-two teams all season as per the U SPORTS rankings, and they likely will want to erase the memory of losing the Canada West Final by winning at Nationals.
WHY THEY WON'T: Stifling, defensive hockey seems to be the Achilles' heel for this T-Birds team. They have come into Nationals over the last three seasons as the second-seeded team twice and third-seeded team once, and only came away with a bronze medal after running into strong defensive performances from Nipissing, Concordia, and Montreal. Alberta put that on display in the Canada West Final as well, so the Thunderbirds will need to figure out how to adapt if they hope to go deep in this tournament. Overtime also seems to affect the T-Birds as they were 1-3 in games to get to the extra period, so UBC has to find ways to break through these defensive walls they encounter.
NATIONALS SEEDING: Sixth.
Stuff You Should Know
Concordia comes in as the reigning National Champions after having won last season, and they have won two of the last three National Championship while appearing in three-straight championship finals. They may have lost the RSEQ championship, but I guarantee it will only make them hungrier for a third championship in four years.Toronto earned a silver medal last season after starting the tournament as the sixth-seeded team. They defeated Waterloo to win the OUA championship, so they're coming in on a high, but that may also place a target on them after they surprised a few teams last year. Last year's silver medal was the first medal Toronto brought home since 2003, so they'll need to be ready for a battle.
Bishop's is making their first-ever appearance at the National Championship, and we saw what Waterloo did in their first time at the dance as they finished in fourth-place after losing in the bronze-medal game to Montreal in a shootout. Don't sleep on Bishop's - they're fast, they play solid defence, and they have depth scoring. They could make some noise in Elmira.
If you're looking for a deep run by either StFX or UNB in this tournament, it should be known that the AUS hasn't fared well when competing against the rest of the country. The AUS as a conference at this tournament is 24-80 all-time while UNB sports a 1-6 record and StFX enters the tournament with a 11-36 record. UNB's highest finish was fourth-place in 2022 while StFX hasn't medalled since 2013 when only six teams went to the National Championship. Historically, Nationals haven't been nice to the maritime teams.
Alberta will arrive at the tournament in search for the ninth gold medal and eleventh medal overall. While McGill does have 15 medals total in their history, only four are gold so the Pandas will look to put another layer of gold between them and McGill. For the record, Concordia can become the second-most successful team in U SPORTS women's hockey history if they win gold. It would be their fifth gold medal all-time, passing McGill for total gold medals.
UBC will enter the tournament with their lowest seeding ever in their history at the tournament. This actually might be a benefit for them because they won a silver medal while ranked as the fourth-seeded team in 2016. Every other appearance has seen them finish in a lower spot than how they were seeded to start the tournament, so maybe the pressure will be off for the Thunderbirds? In two of the last three tournaments, the sixth-seeded team made the finals, so can UBC make it three-in-four-years for that streak?
Waterloo is hosting the tournament, so we'll see if the crowd gives them a boost. They fell in the McCaw Cup Final on home ice, so I expect that the Warriors will come out far more focused and ready to play than they have all season. The hosts always want to show up in a big way for their fans and community, so I'd expect Waterloo to be a tough out in this tournament just as they were in Saskatoon.
The Seedings
The seedings were released today, and there are going to be a few teams who won't be happy with their matchups thanks to how the conference fnals played out and how the seedings work at Nationals. Let's review because this will explain how the eight teams were seeded as they are. This is not a random seeding thing.Teams from the same conference will not face one another in the opening round of the tournament, and teams from the same conference are put on opposite sides of the bracket to ensure that they can only meet in the final if both reach that point. To give you an idea on the success of this strategy, there have only been 15 games since 1998 where teams from the same conference played each other at any point in the tournament. In short, you have to beat teams from other conferences to win.
Here are the brackets for the tournament starting on Thursday:
Seedings can be seen below on the schedule, but this is who will face whom in the tournament. When will they play? Read on!
The Schedule
Break out the calendars and watches, folks. The schedule is set.- Thursday 1pm ET: #5 Concordia Stingers vs. #4 StFX X-Women
- Thursday 7pm ET: #8 Waterloo Warriors vs. #1 Alberta Pandas
- Friday 1pm ET: #6 UBC Thunderbirds vs. #3 Bishop's Gaiters
- Friday 7pm ET: #7 UNB Reds vs #2 Toronto Varisty Blues
The History
UNB is 1-6 all-time at Nationals, and they own an 0-2 record against Toronto including a 2-1 loss at last year's Nationals in the opening game for both teams and a 4-1 loss in 2023. UNB has only scored more than one goal in any Nationals game once - a 5-4 loss to McGill in 2022 - so they need to figure out how to find the back of the net. Otherwise, this could be another short tournament for the Reds. Toronto enters the tournament as the reigning silver medalists, and they defeated both Guelph and Waterloo to earn the second-seeded placement. Toronto's strategy is simple: defend well and score when given chances. This rematch against UNB should test both sides.
UBC gets the new kids, and that's a tough matchup because there isn't a lot of history from which we can draw when it comes to the Gaiters. UBC is 4-5 all-time against the RSEQ teams at Nationals, so they're looking to even their record against Quebec's best. UBC lost last year's opening game to Montreal, so they need to avenge that loss to an RSEQ team if they hope to come home with hardware. Bishop's will want to push the RSEQ's overall record to 26-22 with a win, and, based on how they played against Concordia, this might be a matchup where UBC could be the underdog.
Alberta gets the host team in Waterloo in the first game, and host teams might feel more pressure than the top-seeded team based on history. Since 2015, host teams in the eight-team format are a combined 2-6 in those opening games, so things aren't looking good for Waterloo if we listen to history. Eighth-seeded teams are slightly worse at 1-7 in opening games. If there's a silver lining, though, Mount Royal won their opening game as the eighth-seed, and they went home from Montreal with gold medals.
If it sounds like I am favouring specific teams over others, let me be clear: this might be the most wide-open tournament we've seen in a while due to how the conferences finished. All of the higher-ranked teams in the U SPORTS ranking system are playing in the bottom-half of the tournament thanks to them all losing their final series and games. For the first time in a long time, calling anyone a favourite to win could apply to all eight teams.
That's why I love this tournament: anyone can beat anyone else on any given day when the best eight teams come together, and it's why the games are played. I can't wait for this tournament to start!
The Last Word
Four days of Canadian university women's hockey remains. For the eight teams making their way to Elmira, Ontario, I wish you the best of luck and I hope you achieve your dream of becoming the 2025 U SPORTS National Women's Hockey Champions. Battle hard, give everything you've got in the tank, and leave it all out on the ice. You're a three-game winning streak from saying you're the best team in the nation, and no one can contest that title.The championship is yours to be earned. Seize that opportunity!
Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!
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