Patient Zero

I've actively tried to refrain from reporting on anything coronavirus-related on this blog unless it affects me directly with cancellations of events and/or broadcasts. I can get over cancelling hockey on TV because we do it all summer, and everyone needs a break once in a while. Sports are supposed to be a distraction, but it seems that one team had the reality and gravity of the coronavirus situation hit home as the Ottawa Senators announced tonight that one of their players tested positive for COVID-19, the first NHL player to do so. I won't downplay the seriousness of this announcement after the player showed mild symptoms because his interactions with others could have allowed the virus to spread, but it's time we come to terms with this entire pandemic.

The Senators player who tested positive has not been revealed, and I respect the efforts by the team and the NHL to allow this player a little privacy while he processes these results and seeks isolation so that he can limit his interactions with others. The remaining Senators players have been informed that they should continue to remain isolated to ensure their own health and the health of others, and other team staff have received the same message as a precaution.

If you're wondering how this player may have contracted the virus, the Senators did play in San Jose on March 7 when county health officials in San Jose were recommending against activities where large public masses could assemble. Santa Clara County Public Health shows that the outbreak was well underway in the county when the recommendation was made. At some point, the player in question must have crossed paths with one of the people who had the virus.

Let me be clear: there's no need for panic. Everyone is following the accepted protocol, the player has been quarantined, anyone he may have come in contact with is being notified, and the public has been told. As long as everyone is following the required steps and minimizing interactions as much as humanly possible, things will be fine. Be smart and be safe, right?

I know the NHL is examining a pile of possibilities at the moment of when to resume play and how to figure everything out, but I kind of want them to follow a number of other leagues' lead and just cancel the season. How can a hockey guy like me suggest that? It's rather easy - I'd rather start the 2020-21 season with no further chance of infection than rushing to simply award the Stanley Cup for whatever reason. If we can cancel the 1919 Stanley Cup Final over a pandemic, we can certainly do it in 2020 as well.

Until there's a vaccine, there's no guarantee that the Ottawa Senators player who tested positive won't be a carrier moving forward. According to the Annals of Internal Medicine,

The median incubation period was estimated to be 5.1 days (95% CI, 4.5 to 5.8 days), and 97.5% of those who develop symptoms will do so within 11.5 days (CI, 8.2 to 15.6 days) of infection. These estimates imply that, under conservative assumptions, 101 out of every 10 000 cases (99th percentile, 482) will develop symptoms after 14 days of active monitoring or quarantine.

Based on tonight's press release, if he contracted the virus in San Jose on March 7, that would be an approximate ten-day incubation period before he began showing "mild symptoms". If others had been infected before the player was tested, this is how we see these viruses spread as the incubation period will prolong the the timeframe of when we see the next infected person.

What I'm saying in all this is to be smart, do your part by self-isolating, and seek testing if you show symptoms. "Less is more" is a good phrase to use here as less interaction and contact with others is more precautionary and more effective in combating this pandemic. For whoever tested positive on the Senators, I hope you recover quickly back to full health.

Now if we could just get the NHL to use a little common sense in shutting down this season, we all might be better off for it.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!