The 1995-96 Predictions

As I spoke about on Tuesday, the month of October outside of a few days will be all about determining the accuracy of the predictions made by the staff of The Hockey News. We start this little project with the 1995-96 THN Yearbook as seen to the left with former Maple Leafs goaltender Felix Potvin as the cover player. This is the copy I have, but, as you likely know, the covers change from region to region in order to help promote sales. Being that I'm no Maple Leafs fan, I still bought this magazine and it's still part of the collection today! We're not here to dissect the cover players chosen or the years represented in the collection, though. Instead, we're here to see if the men who work on the magazine have the crystal ball working before the season starts with their annual predictions!

We'll look to see how accurate their predictions are with regards to the "Fearless Forecast" published on Page 62 of the 1995-96 Yearbook. There are a handful of different predictions made - standings, President's Trophy winner, playoff teams, conference finalists, Stanley Cup winner, and a few individual award winners. All of these predictions are up for grabs, so let's dive into this!

First, we need the picture evidence of the predictions in full colour.

You can click on the image to make it larger for better reading.

STANDINGS

We'll start on the left-hand column for both standings and playoff teams. I'll award one point for every team correctly predicted as to their final conference standing. I'll also award one point for every correctly-predicted playoff team in the right standing, and 0.5 points for a playoff team not in the correct standings spot. That's a potential total of 26 points for the standings and 16 points for the playoff teams for a total of 42 points in this section.

The final Eastern Conference standings in 1996 in the NHL are listed first with The Hockey News' predicted team to finish in that same spot listed second.

1. Philadelphia (NHL) vs. New Jersey (THN)
2. Pittsburgh vs. New York Rangers
3. New York Rangers vs. Philadelphia
4. Florida vs. Pittsburgh
5. Boston vs. Montreal
6. Montreal vs. Boston
7. Washington vs. Hartford
8. Tampa Bay vs. Washington
9. New Jersey vs. Buffalo
10. Hartford vs. New York Islanders
11. Buffalo vs. Florida
12. New York Islanders vs. Tampa Bay
13. Ottawa vs. Ottawa

As you can see, they were close on some of the standings predictions, but the only one they got exactly right was Ottawa coming in dead-last in the East in 1996. That's one point for the standings prediction. The other prediction was playoff teams, and they had six of the eight teams correct in making the playoffs, but none in the right spot in the standings. That's 3 points (6 x 0.5) for that prediction, and the final total for their Eastern Conference standings predictions comes in at 4/21 points.

The Western Conference follows the same listing and scoring.

1. Detroit (NHL) vs. Colorado (THN)
2. Colorado vs. Detroit
3. Chicago vs. St. Louis
4. Toronto vs. Vancouver
5. St. Louis vs. Calgary
6. Calgary vs. Chicago
7. Vancouver vs. Toronto
8. Winnipeg vs. Dallas
9. Anaheim vs. Edmonton
10. Edmonton vs. San Jose
11. Dallas vs. Anaheim
12. Los Angeles vs. Winnipeg
13. San Jose vs. Los Angeles

THN got none of the teams right in their predicted standings for a total of zero points. They were better in their predictions for playoff teams, though, as seven of the eight teams they chose as the top-eight in the conference made the playoffs. That would result in 3.5 points (7 x 0.5) for a final total of 3.5/21 possible points in the Western Conference.

PRESIDENT'S TROPHY

This is an all-or-nothing prediction, and The Hockey News went with the Colorado Avalanche as their choice for the best regular-season team. Detroit, however, had a record-setting season that year as they won 62 games and put up 131 points to win the President's Trophy. The Hockey News is 0/1 on this prediction.

CONFERENCE FINALISTS

Again, these are all-or-nothing predictions. THN went with New Jersey and the New York Rangers in the Eastern Conference Final, but it was actually Pittsburgh and Florida who played that series. That's an 0/2 prediction.

The Western Conference prediction was Colorado and Detroit, and The Hockey News predicted both of these teams correctly for a 2/2 result. The overall score for the conference finalists leaves them with a 2/4 score.

STANLEY CUP FINALISTS

As seen above, they missed on both the Eastern Conference teams, but correctly predicted both Western Conference teams. This is an easy 1/2 score in knowing that New Jersey didn't play in the Stanley Cup Final, but Colorado did.

STANLEY CUP WINNER

It came down to New Jersey and Colorado, and The Hockey News chose the Devils to prevail over the Avalanche. As we know, the Avalanche swept the Florida Panthers in the 1996 Stanley Cup Final, so THN gets an 0/1 score on this part.

AWARD WINNERS

Like the standings, I'll award one point for accurate predictions, and 0.5 points if the player is mentioned as one of the other contenders. Zero points will be given if the player who wins isn't mentioned at all. The awards listed are the Calder Trophy, the Hart Trophy, the Vezina Trophy, and the Norris Trophy for possible score of 4 points.

The winner of the award as chosen in the NHL is listed first with the predicted player chosen by The Hockey News listed second.

• CALDER: Daniel Alfredsson (NHL) vs. Saku Koivu (THN)
• HART: Mario Lemieux vs. Eric Lindros
• VEZINA: Jim Carey vs. Dominik Hasek
• NORRIS: Chris Chelios vs. Chris Chelios

Alfredsson didn't even make the "contenders" list for the Calder Trophy, so that's a score of zero. THN was "tempted" to go with Lemieux over Lindros, but chose the latter for 0.5 points. Jim Carey was in the list of contenders for another 0.5 points. And THN finished strong with an accurate selection of Chicago's Chris Chelios as the Norris Trophy recipient for one point. Final score for award winners is 2/4.

The final tally on this season is 12.5 out of 54 possible points, meaning The Hockey News was 23.1% correct in its predictions. I want to make something very clear now that you've seen that score, and that is a low score doesn't mean that they were wrong all over the place. It simply means that predicting the hardest part of this - standings for all 26 teams - is incredibly difficult and hard to predict. If we take the standings out, The Hockey News scored a 5/12 on the rest of the predictions - not too shabby at all.

We'll see how future seasons play out with these predictions and if THN can improve upon that 23% score overall as we move forward chronologically!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!