Friday 9 October 2020

The 2001-02 Predictions

Wednesday was a big day for this little project I'm running as The Hockey News not only scored their best accuracy result to date with 39.6% of everything they predicted coming true, but they also finally chose the correct Stanley Cup-winning team after five poor attempts! Not to jinx the improvements, but perhaps having Mike Brophy writing the predictions as opposed to other writers is the lucky charm that The Hockey News needs? There were no new teams added nor did any teams swap conferences as 30 teams began play in the 2001-02 season, so let's see how the predictions made by The Hockey News did when compared to the results of the 2001-02 NHL season! Can they make it two years in a row with the correctly-predicted Stanley Cup champion?

At this point, we've looked at seven of The Hockey News Yearbooks, and we've only seen two teams featured on the cover as apparently the prairie region only cheers for either the Toronto Maple Leafs or the Edmonton Oilers. For the second-straight year, Edmonton's Tommy Salo appears on the front of the Yearbook, so we're almost assured that we'll get the Leafs next year with Toronto holding a slight edge over Edmonton at 4-3 at this point. Great job, THN!

The Hockey News is back with more standings predictions this year, so we'll dive into these predictions as we have before. After a solid 39.6% accuracy on their predictions one year earlier, they'll need another strong showing this year if they want to improve!

Here are the standings predictions as per The Hockey News.
Click on the picture if you'd like to view it at a larger size.

STANDINGS

I'll award one point for every team correctly predicted as to their final conference standing. I'll also award one point for every correctly-predicted playoff team in the right standing, and 0.5 points for a playoff team not in the correct standings spot. That's a potential total of 15 points for the standings plus 8 points for the playoff teams for a total of 23 points per conference in this section.

You might be asking what happened to the three points available for divisional winners. Apparently, based on the predicted standings above, The Hockey News forgot that was actually a thing, so I can't include them here. That doesn't bode well for the predictions if that's the case. How do you forget that?

The final Eastern Conference standings in 2002 in the NHL are listed first with The Hockey News' predicted team to finish in that same spot listed second.
      1. Boston (NHL) vs. Philadelphia (THN)
      2. Philadelphia vs. New Jersey
      3. Carolina vs. Toronto
      4. Toronto vs. Washington
      5. New York Islanders vs. Boston
      6. New Jersey vs. Buffalo
      7. Ottawa vs. Ottawa
      8. Montreal vs. Pittsburgh
      9. Washington vs. New York Rangers
      10. Buffalo vs. Carolina
      11. New York Rangers vs. New York Islanders
      12. Pittsburgh vs. Montreal
      13. Tampa Bay vs. Florida
      14. Florida vs. Atlanta
      15. Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay
By forgetting that the division winners get seeded 1-2-3, THN really did a number on their predictions this season. They had just one team - Ottawa - finishing in the right spot in the standings for 1 point. They'll add another point for having Ottawa as the seventh-seeded team in the playoffs, but they only had four of the remaining teams correctly making the playoffs for 2 additional points (4 x 0.5), giving THN 3 points for the playoff squads. All totaled, The Hockey News scored just 4/23 points for the Eastern Conference.

The Western Conference follows the same listing and scoring for 23 possible points.
      1. Detroit (NHL) vs. Colorado (THN)
      2. Colorado vs. Detroit
      3. San Jose vs. St. Louis
      4. St. Louis vs. Dallas
      5. Chicago vs. San Jose
      6. Phoenix vs. Vancouver
      7. Los Angeles vs. Los Angeles
      8. Vancouver vs. Edmonton
      9. Edmonton vs. Nashville
      10. Dallas vs. Phoenix
      11. Calgary vs. Chicago
      12. Minnesota vs. Anaheim
      13. Anaheim vs. Columbus
      14. Nashville vs. Minnesota
      15. Columbus vs. Calgary
The Western Conference was the same story as above as the 1-2-3 division winners really messed up THN's standings. That being said, they did grab 1 point for correctly predicting Los Angeles would finish where they did. They'd grab 1 more point for also having Los Angeles as the seventh-seeded team in the playoffs, and they'd add 2.5 points for having five of the remaining seven teams making the playoffs for 3.5 points for playoff squads. The final total for the Western Conference was 4.5/23 in 2002.

STANLEY CUP WINNER

After correctly predicting the Colorado Avalanche would win the Stanley Cup in 2001, could they do it again in 2002 with another accurate prediction? Let's check who they had standing at the finish line.
  • PHILADELPHIA FLYERS WILL WIN THE STANLEY CUP. Except they didn't as the 2002 Detroit Red Wings hoisted the Stanley Cup. In fact, the second-seeded Flyers played just five games in the playoffs in 2002, losing to the Ottawa Senators in the opening round of the playoffs. Philadelphia actually won Game One by a 1-0 score in overtime before dropping the next four games to lose the series, being outscored 11-1 in those four games. OUCH!
By choosing the Flyers, THN goes 0/1 in this section.

After a very successful season one year ago, The Hockey News took a beating this year with the final tally on this season being 8.5 out of 47 possible points, meaning The Hockey News was 18.1% correct in its predictions this season - their worst score to date! I have no idea how they forgot the division-winner seedings, but The Hockey News likely owes you some money if you made a bet in Vegas based on their predictions this year. This was an awful year of predictions.

We'll see how future seasons play out with these predictions and if THN can continue improve on a rather brutal score next season as we move forward chronologically!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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