Power-Plays One Month In

Say what you want about my obsession with stats and trends in Canada West women's hockey, but I tend to believe trends tell more about a team more than I believe isolated stats do. You might say that's a fairly obvious observation, but Canada West is a very even conference in terms of parity among the teams, and that usually keeps scores low. Yes, there are outliers as UBC seemingly has scored at will against some teams, but we've seen teams hold UBC to more reasonable scores when they play teams closer to their level of play. We're now one month into the season, though, so I want to revisit adjusted power-play numbers because we're seeing trends emerge on special teams that may explain some of the standings.

Adjusted power-play numbers, in my view, tell a big story because special teams have the ability to affect final scores in Canada West quite a bit. Scoring on the power-play and scoring shorthanded can swing momentum in a big way as Regina showed against Calgary this past weekend. The Cougars scored three power-play goals and added two more while shorthanded on Friday night's 7-6 overtime victory where they rallied from 3-1 and 4-2 deficits. Special teams played a big part on both sides depending on which bench you occupied.

Again, the adjusted power-plays calculation are the shorthanded goals allowed by each team subtracted from the total power-play goals scored, and divide by the same number of opportunities. Teams can't score power-play goals unless they're on the power-play, and teams can't score shorthanded goals unless they're killing a penalty. By negating a power-play with a shorthanded goal, it's like the power-play never happened despite it clearly happening.

So, one month into the season, let's take a quick peek at those adjusted power-play numbers from the nine teams because it may explain a few things when you look at the standings.

CANADA WEST WOMEN'S HOCKEY PP NUMBERS

School	PP%	Goals	Opp.	SHGA	Adj. PP%
Trinity Western	27.6	8	29	1	24.1
UBC	26.5	13	49	0	26.5
Alberta	20.9	9	43	0	20.9
Regina	20.0	7	35	1	17.1
Mount Royal	18.6	8	43	2	14.0
MacEwan	13.2	5	38	2*	7.9*
Saskatchewan	10.8	4	37	2	5.4
Calgary	7.0	3	43	3	0.0
Manitoba	5.9	2	34	0	5.9

Ok, let's address the asterisk first because MacEwan's stats on the Canada West site show that they've surrendered three shorthanded goals, but we know that they've only surrendered two. One of the shorthanded goals that Saskatchewan was credited with against MacEwan wasn't a shorty. Since no one from Canada West verifies information, though, no one has updated the stats. I guess I'm responsible for that being that I pay attention?

It's a little surprising that Trinity Western is the second-best team in the conference when it comes to adjusted power-play numbers, but those eight power-play goals account for nearly one-third of their offence this season already. I suspect that to slow down and the power-play efficiency rate will fall as four of Trinity Western's power-play goals came in one game against Regina. That's half their total on the season so far, and they added two more in one game against Manitoba. When 75% of your power-goals came in two games, expect the efficiency to regress.

It's no surprise that UBC is clipping along with a solid power-play as they've scored more than anyone else and more than second-highest and third-highest have scored combined! But that impressive statistic comes with a cautionary note as well as the Thunderbirds were 1-for-10 this past weekend against Mount Royal, and are a combined 2-for-18 against Alberta and Mount Royal. Going 11-for-31 against teams UBC likely won't see in the playoffs is nice, but their execution against more polished opponents needs some work if they're going to capture another Canada West banner at season's end.

I expected Alberta and Mount Royal to be somewhere around 15-20% in terms of efficiencies, but seeing Regina sitting between them for adjusted power-play efficiency is a little surprising considering that more than a third of Regina's goals have come on the power-play this season. Regina is the youngest team in the conference, so you don't usually see that kind of efficiency from a young team playing against more experienced penalty killers, yet the Cougars are riding special teams up the standings based on their 4-for-9 effort this past week in picking up four points against the Dinos. Again, the cautionary side of the coin, though, is that they have an 11.5% efficiency against anyone not named Calgary.

MacEwan's power-play improved in their series against Manitoba as they went 3-for-11 (27.2%) that weekend, but there's no way that's sustainable as shown through the first month of the season. Being 2-for-27 in all other games (7.4%) seems more like the norm for MacEwan this season, and that's just not good enough to affect the outcome of games. MacEwan returns from their bye this week to play the fourth-best penalty-killing team in the conference in Trinity Western, so I'll be watching to see if there were any strides made over the break to improve the advantages they're awarded.

The Huskies are the one team in the conference that apparently care not for power-play opportunities. Say what you will about how good the Huskies are defensively, but they simply don't use the two minutes of time well. They're 1-for-13 against Alberta and Trinity Western this season, and two of their four power-play goals came in their very first game of the season. Since that game, they're 2-for-31 (6.5%) on the power-play over their next nine contests, so the Huskies may just want to start declining power-plays. We'll see how this plays out down the stretch, but improvement is needed if they're going to take a serious run at winning Canada West.

I know Manitoba has had its issues with power-plays, so I'm not going to say much about the Bisons because I firmly believe it relates to coaching (or a lack thereof). If they can get that straightened out, the Bisons could be a lot more dangerous offensively. I know interim head coach Jordy Zacharias was lethal on the power-play, so perhaps she can bring her knowledge to the team and get them clicking. Until they do, though, Manitoba may be a middle-of-the-pack team.

Calgary, it seems, is in a world of hurt when it comes to their power-play underperforming this season. Calgary was 2-for-11 in their series against Regina this past week, so one may consider that things are changing for the better. I'll point out that both goals came in that 7-6 loss where they surrendered three power-play goals-against and had two shorthanded goals scored on them. They lost the special teams' game that night, and, as a result, lost in overtime.

Prior to that, they were 1-for-32 (3.1%) with the extra player with that lone goal coming in a 4-1 loss to Mount Royal. For the talent that Calgary boasts, this is inexplicable that they haven't gotten a bounce or a deflection that's gone their way, but the Dinos are on pace for one of the worst power-play efficiencies ever. I've gone back to check, and I haven't seen an adjusted power-play efficiency at 0.0% this deep into any season. Like I said: inexplicable.

Power-plays can win you games. The teams at the top of the adjusted power-play efficiencies are winning more often than not because they're taking advantage of their advantages more often. The four teams competing for the sixth-place spot in the standings right now would be wise to start kicking their special teams' play into high gear if they're going to make a push for the playoffs and perhaps look for a first-round upset. Getting to that point without special teams will be harder, but one of these four teams will make the playoffs despite not having any power in their power-play systems.

It's pretty clear, though, that a few teams need a jumpstart when it comes to powering up the power-play.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!