Monday, 12 April 2010

Interesting Statistics

With over thirty entrants registered in the HBIC Playoff Pool, this year's event will be the largest in this blog's three-year history. There are a ton of prizes that are still coming in, so we'll have lots of prizes to hand out this spring. The best part? There are probably another ten people who have indicated that they will enter, so we could see the number of people in the Playoff Pool balloon to fifty before Wednesday night's games. How cool is that? I decided to take the thirty people who had entered, and do a little statistical analysis as to how the series will break down. It's quite interesting, in fact, to see how everyone has voted, and it tells a big story as to how everyone thinks Round One of the 2010 Stanley Cup Playoffs will play out.

Let me just say this first: thank you to everyone who has entered, and to anyone who is planning on entering. I wouldn't run this pool if no one entered, and, with the numbers growing, it encourages me to go out and find more prizes for everyone who enters. Thank you, everyone, for making this fun for me!

Let's break these playoff series down according to your choices.

Eastern Conference

Washington vs. Montreal: Of the 31 people who have entered thus far, it's unanimous that Washington will advance past the Canadiens. All 31 people voted for Washington as the series-winning team. 19.4% of you think the series will be a Capitals sweep; 67.7% of you think that five games is all the Capitals will need; 9.7% of you think the series will go six games; and, 3.2% of you think it will take all seven games for Washington to eliminate Montreal.

New Jersey vs. Philadelphia: Of the 31 people who entered thus far, 80.6% of the entrants, or 25 people, feel New Jersey will advance. Of those 25 people, 16% feel the Devils will pull off a sweep; 16% feel the Devils will end the series in five games; 40% feel that the Devils will end the series in six games; and, 28% think that the Devils will need all seven games.

Of course, the other 19.4% of the entrants, or six people, feel the Philadelphia will upset the Devils. 67% think the Flyers can pull it off in six games, while the other 33% say the Flyers will need all seven games for the upset.

Buffalo vs. Boston: Of the 31 people who entered thus far, 67.7% of the entrants, or 21 people, feel Buffalo will advance over Boston. 4.8% of those people think that the Sabres will sweep the Bruins; 23.8% see the Sabres needing only five games; 42.9% feel that the Sabres will need six games to get by Boston; and, 28.6% see Buffalo using all seven games to advance.

The other 32.3% of entrants, or ten people, see the Bruins upsetting the Sabres. 50% of those people see the series ending in six games with the Bruins victorious, while the other 50% think Boston will need all seven games.

Pittsburgh vs. Ottawa: Of the 31 people who entered thus far, a surprising 83.9% of entrants, or 26 people, think that Pittsburgh will advance past the Ottawa Senators. 19.2% of those 26 people think that Pittsburgh will sweep past Ottawa; 30.8% see Pittsburgh advancing in five games; 30.8% think Pittsburgh will need six games; and, 19.2% think that Pittsburgh will prevail in seven games.

The other 16.1%, or five people, see Ottawa advancing to the second round. 40% have Ottawa moving on after six games, while the other 60% have Ottawa playing all seven games before advancing.

Western Conference

San Jose vs. Colorado: Of the 31 people who entered thus far, 93.5% of the entrants, or 29 people, feel that San Jose will eliminate Colorado. 20.7% of those 29 people think that San Jose will win in a sweep; 44.8% see San Jose needing five games to get past Colorado; 20.7% feel that six games will be enough; and, 10.3% think that San Jose will need all seven games to advance.

The other 6.5%, or two people, feel that Colorado will upset the Sharks. 50% say that six games will be enough for the upset, while the other 50% say that seven games will do in the Sharks at the hands of the Avalanche.

Chicago vs. Nashville: If you're a member of the Predators, you're the undisputed underdog as all 31 entrants picked Chicago to advance. 29.0% feel that Chicago will sweep the Predators; 35.5% see Chicago advancing in five games; 25.8% see the Predators taking two games off the Blackhawks; and, 9.7% feel that it will take Chicago all seven games to eliminate the Predators.

Vancouver vs. Los Angeles: I thought this one would be closer than it currently is, but 71.0% of the entrants, or 22 people, feel that Vancouver will eliminate the Los Angeles Kings. 13.6% of the 22 people see Vancouver advancing in a sweep; 18.2% have Vancouver needing five games; 36.4% believe that Vancouver will win in six games; and, 31.8% see Vancouver and Los Angeles battling through seven games before the Canucks advance.

The other 29%, or nine people, have Los Angeles needing all seven games to upset the Canucks.

Phoenix vs. Detroit: If people in the NHL were saying that Detroit might be the worst team to match-up with in the Stanley Cup Playoffs, the entrants in this pool agree with that sentiment. 80.6% of the entrants, or 25 people, feel that Detroit will eliminate the Coyotes in their series. Of those 25 people, 8.0% feel that Detroit will advance in a sweep; 36.0% feel that Detroit will need five games; 32.0% think that Detroit will need six games to get past Phoenix; and, 24.0% think it will take all seven games for Detroit to dispose of the Coyotes.

The other 19.4%, or six people, feel that Phoenix will eliminate the Red Wings. 33.3% feel that it will only take Phoenix six games to knock off the reigning Western Conference champions, while the other 66.7% see the series ending in seven games with Phoenix moving on.

Of course, nothing is decided on paper, and the games must be played. That leads to anyone beating anyone else on any given day, so anything can happen. Much like the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs, the HBIC Playoff Pool can change dramatically through one series as an upset can change everything.

More entries are still rolling in, so get yourself ready for Wednesday night! The 2010 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs - history will be made!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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