Crunching The Numbers

In league that had its fair share of fly-by-night owners, poor hockey markets, bad management, and inexplicable decisions, the Federal Propects Hockey League will push forward in 2026-27 with seventeen teams. If that number seems high to you, it's because "The Fed", as they're colloquially known, has pushed for some major expansion in recent months and years. Operating in twelve states, the FPHL circuit is hardly one of a "bus league" any longer, and the likelihood of the accounting to operate a team in this version of the FPHL working out for all teams seems very low.

HBIC isn't here to rain on the parades of the fourteen teams that play in places like Minnesota, Kansas, and Louisiana, though, because there are regional games that can make up the majority of those teams' schedules to keep costs lower. Yes, there might be a game or two in a region nor normally visited, but none of those fourteen teams had ever planned on flying their entire roster and staff to California in a season before. With three new teams there, let's look at the distances each team will travel to play hockey this season.

Within California, Fresno to Stockton is a two-hour drive in either direction as the 126-mile distance won't be hard to cover as per Google Maps. Oceanside to Fresno is a more arduous trip as it takes five hours to go from one city to the other on the 308-mile route, and Oceanside to Stockton is 6.5 hours each way for the 427-mile trip. Needless to say, a California road trip for any of the fourteen teams will still involve a lot of travel in-state to reach the three teams.

Assuming that each of the fourteen teams makes a one-week trip to California, they could potentially get three games of hockey against the California teams in without any trouble. With adequate travel and rest time for the road teams, it would eliminate three of the 28 road games each team plays, leaving 25 road games against the remaining thirteen teams in the FPHL circuit on each schedule.

Where the math starts getting tricky, however, is the distance and costs to cover those distances. For simplicity's sake, let's assume that each of the fourteen non-California teams want to fly into Stockton. As it stands, Stockton's airport only has flights to Las Vegas and Phoenix meaning that there would have to be a connector where all of the equipment and gear gets moved. American Airlines flies from Denver to Fresno, but there would need to be a transfer again. Oceanside's airport only has one runway and rarely has commercial flights land there. In short, direct flights aren't available.

Based on where each team is located, it would appear that they're going to have to fly in or out of one of San Francisco or San Diego depending on where their California road trip begins and ends. Unless teams are willing to fork over thousands of dollars in charter flight costs, flying commercial will be the economical way of getting to California unless Topeka or Minnesota opt to do a three-day bus ride to The Golden State. I'm not sure that's something the players want.

And maybe that's the direction the FPHL will go, telling each team to bus it out to California. The distances shown below for each team are the distances to Stockton, to Fresno, and to Oceanside in miles and hours of travel in parentheses, respectively. The most efficient bus routes for the fourteen FPHL eastern teams are as follows:

Distances

Team	Stockton	Fresno	Oceanside
Baton Rouge franchise	2104 (31)	1980 (29)	1765 (25)
Binghamton Black Bears	2792 (41)	2863 (42)	2752 (40)
Blue Ridge Bobcats	2611 (38)	2487 (36)	2408 (34)
Columbus River Dragons	2426 (36)	2301 (34)	2116 (31)
Danbury Hat Tricks	2930 (43)	2958 (43)	2874 (42)
Indiana Sentinels	2258 (35)	2232 (32)	2121 (31)
Mid-South Monarchs	2930 (43)	1928 (28)	1816 (26)
Minnesota Northern Lights	1844 (28)	1964 (30)	1946 (29)
Monroe Moccasins	1963 (29)	1838 (27)	1671 (24)
Motor City Rockers	2593 (38)	2468 (36)	2357 (35)
Port Huron Prowlers	2413 (35)	2557 (37)	2371 (34)
Topeka Scarecrows	1744 (25)	1680 (24)	1587 (23)
Twin City Thunderbirds	2688 (39)	2565 (37)	2487 (36)
Watertown Wolves	2855 (43)	2866 (42)	2482 (41)

Of course, the three California-based teams will spend blocks of time on the road playing everyone else, so having these three teams out in the far-off galaxy of California makes no sense. Based on every flight plan I can find, it would cost teams approximately $25,000 USD to fly to and from these California cities each way based on head counts and load requirements, so it's almost as if the FPHL teams will have to bus it to the west coast if they want to remain on budget.

For a more visual sense of what I'm saying, here's the FPHL map.

How does expanding to California make any sense for the FPHL?

To me, this expansion feels like a last gasp at trying to breathe life into a league that could fold at any moment. I'm not saying that's the case, but having seven teams either move or join the league in 2026-27 with three of those teams 2000 miles away from all the others is downright baffling. We saw the Athens Rock Lobsters and the Pee Dee IceCats abandon the FPHL for the more stable SPHL, and I suspect that we could see more make that choice if teams or the league begins to struggle financially. The only other option is to fold.

My hope is that there are better financial foundations for the FPHL teams where they can shoulder this new California road trip. Perhaps the league sends one of the two divisions - Continental or Empire - to California each season to help manage costs. Whatever the plan may be for 2026-27, it seems clear that this west coast expansion won't be a cash windfall for any team no matter where they're located.

The numbers didn't add up when the FPHL proposed their California expansion, and I still can't make sense of them. Unless the teams are doing cross-country bus trips to and from California, there's a pile of creative accounting happening to sell this west coast dream.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

The New Franchises

This shouldn't come as a profound statement by any means, but I am in no position to be telling people how to spend their money. Even when I was in banking as a career, I tended to explain the advantages and disadvantages of how people spent their money, but the decision always rested with those people when it came to where their money went. The Federal Prospects Hockey League, howver, seems to have a different view on money because their recent expansion announcement calls into question any sort of sound judgment and financial responsibility with the new burden they're going to place on FPHL franchise owners.

In much the same way that UHSL expanded west into California with no teams between them and Nebraska, the FPHL is following that path by announcing three new franchises in Oceanside, Fresno, and Stockton who will all begin play next season. If you're doing the math at home, that's seven new teams in California by the time the 2027-28 season starts. Feel free to choose who you'd like to support.

The difference in this expansion effort is that the USHL announced ownership groups with deep pockets and strong ties to established hockey teams and communities already. The FPHL, in their rush to put teams into California, have less well-known owners, but the three groups who stepped up to grab a piece of the FPHL action do have roots in their communities. How deep might be the only question. Let's take a look at each of the new expansion locations separately.

Oceanside, California

Oceanside will be owned and operated by Major Arena Soccer League's San Diego Sockers owner Phil Salvaggio. Salvaggio also owns and operates Frontwave Arena in Oceanside that seats 5500 for hockey and was built in 2024. Frontwave Arena is working on having the arena outfitted for proper ice-making and seating for hockey games as this will be the arena's first venture in hosting hockey.

Oceanside has an immediate population of approximately 150,000 and sits north of San Diego, but forms a tri-city setup with Carlsbad and Vista, California. Median household income shows as $93,724 as per the 2023 census with 56.5% of its residents are between 18 and 64, but the Oceanside area is seen as more of a "vacation home" setting for people. There are no major corporate headquarters in the city, and the city's main employers are schools and the hospital. They do have a solid rail system that can bring people from Los Angeles and San Diego into town for the game, but that assumes there will be people who want to do that for Federal Prospects League games.

Oceanside has to find a team under which they'll operate, but there is a website where one can vote on the names proposed. Currently, it seems like they're operating under the Frontwave Arena website which is slightly concerning, and I can't find any indication of what's going on behind the scenes with staffing and player signings. They did indicate that Craig Carlyle has been named the team's first head coach, but this team seems like it's operating behind schedule.

From everything I see here, Oceanside is going to rely heavily on ticket sales and an owner who wants another tenant in his building. While the market may have the disposable income to support a team, the question is "will they?" because FPHL teams that underperform usually don't last long in their markets. I certainly am not hoping for that, but that could be the future of hockey in Oceanside.

Fresno, California

The Fresno franchise group will be fronted by Don Kirnan, better known as the Commissioner of the FPHL. If you're thinking "conflict of interest", I can't say you're wrong, but the at least the commissioner is putting his money where his mouth and expansion franchise are. There is an unnamed partner that is listed on the Fresno website that describes this person as "a former professional athlete and California native, whose athletic experience and entrepreneurial background add a modern, competitive vision to the organization," so we'll have to see if the spotlight lands on this mysterious owner. Until then, I'm not certain about the financial footing this Fresno team has.

As you can see from the link above, the team has already committed to being the Fresno Falcons in the same vein as the old ECHL team that played in Fresno from 2003-08. That Falcons team folded on December 22, 2008, "citing operating cost due to dwindling attendance, lack of corporate sponsorships and the faltering economy" as reasons for their dissolution. Clearly, the new owners have their work cut out for them in restoring the Falcons.

The Fresno market is home to just under a million people with 2025's estimated population being close to 556,000 citizens in the metro Fresno area. 59.8% of the market is in the 18-to-64 age range with a median salary of $66,804, but Fresno hardly has the disposable income other California markets do as 16.3% of families and 20.9% of the population sit below the poverty line. While Amazon is the one major corporation in the area, there isn't a lot of major head offices as Fresno also sees a lot of the major employers as schools and government. The Falcons' website lists no major partners yet.

I'll give the Falcons credit in that they appear to be extremely organized. They have multiple key staff members in place including head coach Iain Duncan and have signed multiple players already, and they ever posted their logos and jerseys for their inaugural season!

For those wondering, the Falcons will play at Selland Arena in Fresno which seats 7600 for hockey, but it is a dated building in that it opened its doors in 1966. There have been multiple renovations over the years including a 2006 project that saw a new video replay scoreboard, message boards and a new ice-cooling system for hockey games installed, but the Falcons undoubtedly playing in one of the oldest facilities in the FPHL. Will that work for the long-haul?

I guess when you're partnered with the league commissioner, one has to get one's ducks in a row in a hurry. The Falcons, as stated, appear to be close to taking the ice already which should help them with ticket sales and corporate support. The big question will be long-term support if this team stumbles as the lack of corporate options and an apathetic market won't help the Falcons, but the immediate future of this new Falcons team seems strong. However, all that glitters may not be gold. Keep reading because things are gonna take a turn.

Stockton, California

This might sound like a case of "déjà vu", but Stockton will be fronted by Don Kirnan, better known as the Commissioner of the FPHL. Again, if you're thinking "conflict of interest", this is starting to feel very "Zawyer Group" in the ECHL. The exact same website template and staff profile structure are used on Stockton's page as Fresno's page right down to the mysterious, unnamed professional athlete who is a silent partner to this point. I don't know who is backing Fresno and Stockton, but the pockets he or she has better be twice as deep now.

The Stockton Thunder existed as an ECHL franchise before, and the FPHL is going back to those roots as the new team will also be called the Thunder. Stockton saw the ECHL franchise play there from 2005-15 before the Calgary Flames bought the franchise and moved it to Glen Falls, New York as the Adirondack Thunder. They did move the Adirondack ECHL team to Stockton as the Heat, but they'd become the AHL's Calgary Wranglers after a 2022 relocation. It should be noted that the Thunder led the ECHL in attendance for four straight years from 2005–09 and never dropped below 4600 fans per game in any season. Clearly, Stockton appears to be a hockey market!

The Stockton market is home to 320,804 residents at the 2023 census with a median household income of $76,851, but, like Fresno, it is disproportionate across its residents as 15.4% of the city's population live at or below the poverty line. 49.5% of the population is in the 18-64 age demographic with a significant BIPOC population that the Thunder will need to attract. Amazon and Kaiser Permanente are the two major employers in the area with schools and government making up the vast majority of jobs. The Thunder show two partners in the University Plaza Waterfront Hotel and the J. Milano Company.

Like the Falcons, the Thunder are further ahead of Oceanside, but not quite at the level that Fresno seems to be. There is no head coach nor any player signings yet, but are building connections as shown above. They also have their inaugural set of jerseys posted!

The team has announced it will play in Adventist Health Arena that was built in 2005. It can seat up to 9737 fans for hockey, but the ECHL Stockton Thunder have played games where the number climbed above 10,000. It has all the modern amenties - 24 luxury suites, a 360-degree HD LED videoboard, an updated ice plant - so this might be the best arena that the FPHL will call home. Filling it will be a challenge, but the Thunder will welcome that challenge.

While the team isn't ready for action on the ice by any means, things seem to be moving in the right direction behind the scenes. The Thunder will have hurdles to clear when it comes to attracting fans in a consistent manner, but the ECHL Thunder proved there is a market there if the new FPHL Thunder can capture it. If the Thunder can find success on the ice, this might be the one market that the ECHL will regret leaving as it seems like the potential for big things is there.

There's the state of affairs within the Federal Prospects Hockey League's California expansion to date. Compared to the USHL's push to expand, the FPHL is expecting these three franchises to be ready to hit the ice in October this fall. I'm not saying that won't happen based on what we know above, but it looks like some are far more ready than others as we near the midway point of July. That being said, plans have not changed for the FPHL schedule at this time.

Tomorrow will be Part Two of this look at the FPHL's expansion because there are still larger questions to be asked and potentially answered when it comes to operating costs, the overall health of the rest of the league, and how those two fit together. While a handful of FPHL teams seem rock-solid in their markets, the rest are one unneeded cost away from collapse. A trip to California was reportedly the catalyst for Pee Dee to abandon the FPHL, so might be see more?

We'll put all of the numbers to the test tomorrow here on HBIC!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

Maybe Down The Road?

The jersey to the left is what would have been worn by the NCAA's Tennessee State Tigers had they started their program this past year. The historically Black, public university was supposed to have skaters flying around the ice for 2025-26, but they pushed the start of their men's hockey program back to the start of 2026-27 due to a fundraising shortfall. Hockey, as we all know, is an expensive sport, so taking the extra year to raise funds and have strong backing seemed prudent. The big asterisk on statement, however, is that not only was the school's fundraising inadequate to start a team, but the school has no funds to start or support a men's hockey program until 2030 at the earliest. While the dreams of having an NCAA men's hockey program at Tennessee State were always lofty, they now appeared to be crushed beneath the harsh reality of the school's dire financial situation.

Acccording to The Athletic's Julian McKenzie on June 19, 2026, "the university needs funding to ensure the hockey program's viability for 'at least five years or more,' accounting for operational costs and scholarships" with Tennessee State University President Dwayne Tucker telling McKenzie that "a final decision could be coming in the next '30 days or so'" about the program's potential viability.

McKenzie noted that "TSU's previous interim president, Ronald A. Johnson, noted in a letter written that month that the school had a negative cash balance of $18 million and an overall deficit of $52 million for the 2025 fiscal year" while "[a] financial audit for the 2024 fiscal year stated the university's previous management, led by the now-retired Glenda Glover, 'lacked appropriate oversight,' leading to 'errors' in the school's financial statements, 'deficiencies in oversight of federal programs' and 'inadequate daily operations.'"

In summary, shoddy accounting led to a major operating revenue shortage resulting in a crippling deficit, leading to TSU to reconsider the viability of the proposed men's hockey program. Tucker also outlined that TSU has "outdated student dorms and the aging on-campus football stadium" that require major fundraising capital to maintain and improve those facilities. Basically, a men's hockey program isn't in the cards for TSU at this time due to these reasons.

Of course, that article was filed over three weeks ago, so that "30 days or so" time limit proposed by Tucker is approaching quickly.

There may not need to be any additional waiting, though, because Alex Daugherty of The Tennesseean reported yesterday that "the team has canceled its 2026-27 season, according to a source with knowledge of the situation who wished to remain anonymous because the news is not public". Tucker refused to comment when contacted by Daugherty which seems like an odd tactic considering the gloom he forecasted, but Daugherty did note in his article that "six coaches gave a vote of no confidence for Tennessee State's athletic director Mikki Allen" in May. Things seem to be unravelling quickly at TSU.

I'm not here to cast judgment on TSU's fundraising efforts, but it sounds like they need financial responsibility more than they need a men's hockey program. I get that putting a hockey team at a historically Black, public university could do amazing things for increasing the number of Black players and personnel in the game, but it shouldn't be done at the expense of other needs like safe dorms for students and a more modern football stadium.

Assuming their accounting practices are sound after the financial debacle of the last couple of years, TSU should hopefully be able to erase most of their deficits and debt and look forward to offering more programs - academic and athletic - to its incoming students. Hockey wasn't important to former students like Oprah Winfrey, Olympian Ralph Boston, and Dr. Alvin Crawford, so fixing their financial situation to get back to steady ground should be the focus.

Hockey at TSU would have been an awesome thing to see, and that dream doesn't have to die. It should, however, be shelved until the school gets its books in order. As I said above, hockey is an expensive sport no matter who is funding it, and adding those unnecessary costs to a school trying to dig its way out of a financial hole is an unreasonable ask of Tennessee State University at this point in time.

As most people find while adulting, one can have dreams of something big. Often, though, those dreams are pushed down the road due to more pressing needs that require attention. That's usually how life works, and I hope that TSU does the right thing by getting their house in order financially before chasing that dream.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

The Hockey Show - Episode 720

The Hockey Show, Canada's only campus-produced radio show that strictly talks hockey, returns tonight to chat about some of the latest news coming from the hockey world. With summer officially upon us, the news from the ice is slowing down, but there still are things happening that need some discussion. Of course, with Survivor now officially over, we can also get some guests on for interviews, so expect a few chats with awesome people shortly! For tonight, though, we dive into the examinations of a few stories that have hit the news, so we'll get into all that tonight on The Hockey Show at 5:30pm CT!

Tonight, Teebz and Jason will take a run at a few stories as their discussions will look at the IOC letting Russia back into Olympic competition, the Guelph Storm making changes to their arena, Rogers completing their takeover of MLSE and what that might mean, the newest Stanley Cup engravings, the Jets affiliating with a new ECHL franchise and why that's bad, and the New York Islanders holding a fun contest that has exploded in 24 hours. There should be some laughs, frustration, and opinions heard tonight as we break down these stories on The Hockey Show at 5:30pm CT on one of 101.5 FM, Channel 718 on MTS TV, or via UMFM.com!

If you live outside Winnipeg and want to listen, we have options! The UMFM website's streaming player works well if you want to listen online. We also recommend Radio Garden if you need an easy-to-use online stream. If you're more of an app person, we recommend you use the TuneIn app found on the App Store or Google Play Store.

If you have questions, you can email all show queries and comments to hockeyshow@umfm.com! Tweet me anytime with questions you may have by hitting me up at @TeebzHBIC on Twitter! I'm here to listen to you, so make your voice heard! And because both Teebz and Jason are on the butterfly app where things are less noisy, you can find Teebz here and Jason here on Bluesky!

Tonight, Teebz and Jason will discuss zero courage, team expenses, corporate sports, unneeded engravings, inexplicable affiliations, artistic fun, and much more exclusively on 101.5 UMFM and on the UMFM.com web stream!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

Screens In The Ice?

If there's one thing I know about the work that goes into getting arena ice ready for a season of hockey, it's that it takes a lot of time and planning. Arena staff have to properly measure, align, and paint lines by hand for the various lines needed in hockey, and the bigger teams may include logos or elaborate designs in their lines. The logos seen in faceoff circles are usually large, printed logos that are installed below the ice surface and they're usually a static design for the entire season. But what if they didn't have to be?

The OHL's Guelph Storm announced today that they're upgrading the Sleeman Centre, and one of the new things that fans will see at the rink this year and beyond is an ice surface that changes its logos and advertising as the Storm see fit. Thanks to a Finnish company named LedFoil! With a number of European clubs using their technology, LedFoil is looking to break into the North American market with their in-ice LED technology where they likely will make a fortune!

Guelph will see it used at centre ice in place of their traditional, faceoff-circle team logo, and Storm vice-president of business Matt Newby told Mark Pare of GuelphToday.com, “Depending on what jersey we're wearing on a given game, or if we're doing a special event – which we're going to do with the Platers – it allows us to put that logo at centre ice instead of the Storm logo," adding, "It's an LED scoreboard in the ice, the entire centre ice circle."

This sounds interesting, right? The options for teams could be limitless depending on how creative they get, but I'm a definite "try it before you buy it" guy. What does this in-ice LED display look like when being used during a game? Is it as good as Newby suggests?

Waterloo, Ontario-based Athletica Sport Systems, who owns the North American distribution and selling rights, has a video up on YouTube, and I have to say that seeing what this technology can do might change how hockey looks in North America. Check it out below!
Before we go any further, that video is also two years-old, and the company has yet to post anything newer. I'd love to see some of the ways this technology is being used by hockey teams, but Athletica Sport Systems doesn't have those details available anywhere.

That's not a setback, though, because both Athletica Sport Systems and the LedFoil companies have images on their website where they talk about the cool science that goes into the LedFoil system.

"Smart LED-unit is installed inside the ice and is supported by a cloud-based content management software. It enables live interaction with fans and changes the event experience. First and foremost the digital in-ice display enables scalability which adds the number of sponsors and gives your club more time to seek advertising partners. Ultimately LEDFOIL ICE multiplies club's commercial income so that the core business, sport, would do better."

I'm not particularly excited about adding advertising to the ice, but I get how hockey in today's age works. Money matters when it comes to running a franchise and an arena, so finding extra revneue-generating spaces in an arena matters to owners. That's obvious.

Depending how deep an owner's pockets may be, LedFoil can be added to the ice from the "centre circle to the entire ice as well as to the boards". The LedFoil installation can show things like logos, videos, and animations, so you're likely going to see this in NHL arenas sooner rather than later when it comes to owners maximizing revenue dollars. For teams like Vegas, it could upgrade their pre-game productions further, so this technology could significantly change how hockey looks from an entertainment standpoint!

If you're wondering about the costs, there is nothing posted on either website and Guelph Storm's Newby "was hesitant to say what the cost would be, as he isn’t sure what the company is charging other teams". Being that scoreboards with video screens are usually hundreds of thousands of dollars, I would expect those kinds of numbers to be on an invoice for any arena that wants to install LedFoil. It certainly isn't a necessity for hockey at this point, but LedFoil's technology may eventually be part of the standard arena equipment one day if teams begin to see and realize benefits.

We'll have to keep an eye on Guelph's ice this season to see if this investment is worth it, but this technology is already being used in Europe by Czech club HC Dukla Jihlava and Finnish club Oulun Kärpät. If Guelph's financial statements at the end of the year show a big jump in advertising revenue, expect other teams to follow suit.

For as much as I dislike seeing ads plastered everywhere in rinks, on boards, on jerseys and helmets, and on the ice, it seems we're not far from having dynamic sets of ads appear inside the ice as well. Maybe hockey is actually the distraction from two hours of advertising?

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!