The Rundown - Nationals Preview
Before we get to the previews, here are the final seeding for the eight teams that will descend upon Charlottetown this week.
TEAM PREVIEWS
We'll run through each of the eight teams by looking at them statistically and through what I've seen in trying to watch as many of the teams as humanly possible. You may agree or disagree with the assessments, but that's good for discussion. I encourage comments below where you may point out why I'm right or why I have no clue about anything.For the statistics, these are the national rankings among all teams at the U SPORTS level. They may tell a story, but they usually give a good idea on how a team may play in a single-elimination game when all the cards are on the table. In any case, I'll give a "why they'll win" and a "why they won't" at the end of each analysis and we can go from there. Ready? Here we go.
Offence: 2.89 gpg (6th)
Defence: 1.11 gapg (1st)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: Alberta comes in as possibly the most complete team after starting this season a little slower than usual. They slowly worked their way up the Canada West standings to eventually reclaim their position atop the conference, and proceeded to defeat UBC and Mount Royal in the Canada West Playoffs for their 14th Canada West title. They have a lethal power-play that ranked first in goals scored (31) and second in efficiency (25.2%) while surrendering zero shorthanded goals. They crept up to eighth-best in the nation for penalty-killing efficiency at 90.7%, and they piled on the third-most shots of all teams (818) while surrendering the second-fewest goals (31) and giving up the second-fewest shots (434).
They also have a full squad at this year's tournament after reigning U SPORTS Player of the Year Alex Poznikoff recovered from an injury to return to the lineup against Mount Royal where she was back to being a solid contributor. Having played as the top-seeded team last year in Charlottetown and finishing in fourth-place after losses to McGill and Montreal to end their season likely means the Pandas will want to correct that result by winning the gold medal, so I expect them to be a force in this tournament with a number of their veteran players graduating this year and looking to go out on top. Look for Autumn MacDougall, Madison Willan, Kennedy Ganser, and Cayle Dillon to be names found often on the scoresheets.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: Alberta seems to struggle when teams take away time and space from them. We saw UBC play them in the semifinal series in two 1-0 overtime games by taking away room to maneuver, and Manitoba did the same in the final week of the regular season by closing gaps quickly and forcing the Pandas to make less-than-ideal passes. Teams that play the Pandas will need to use this gap control to force turnovers while transitioning into offence quickly and finishing chances to beat the solid defence and goaltending the Pandas have. It won't be easy, but beating the Pandas at their own game seems to be the key to beating the Pandas.
GAMETIME: Friday, March 13 at 6pm ET/3pm PT versus UPEI on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 2.33 gpg (14th)
Defence: 1.20 gapg (2nd)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: Toronto enters the tournament with wins over the Ryerson Rams and the York Lions in two hard-fought series that needed all three games in each series. Toronto's offence isn't as potent as the other three conference champions, but they are very good defensively and, reportedly, defence wins championships. Witty phrases aside, Toronto uses their fifth-best power-play (20.2%) to their advantage while killing penalties very well as they were ranked seventh-overall (91.1%). Goaltenders Erica Fryer and Madeline Albert posted the nation's best save percentage at .948 while the Varsity Blues were tenth-best overall in limiting shots seen by their netminders.
Toronto came into the National Championship last year as the eighth-ranked team and lost to Alberta 3-2 in the quarterfinal game. They then beat St. Thomas in the consolation semifinal by a 2-1 score before falling to Manitoba in the fifth-place game by a 2-0 count. Toronto enters this year's tournament with a greater focus on defence, and it seems to have paid off as they're ranked second-overall. Forwards Taylor Trussler, Mathilde De Serres, and Natasha Athanasakos will be counted on for offence from the front while defenders Gabrielle De Serres and Cristine Chao will jump into the play while being very defensively-responsible.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: If there's a common theme to how OUA teams play, it's that they seem to play a step slower than the other conferences. Toronto struggled with Alberta's and Manitoba's speed last season, and they get another Canada West team to deal with this year so the question will have to be asked if they can match Mount Royal's speed if the Cougars play this game north-south. Toronto doesn't have that game-changing player who can take over a game and dominate, so depth scoring has to show up for the Varsity Blues if they're going to succeed.
GAMETIME: Thursday, March 12 at 2pm ET/11am PT versus Mount Royal on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 3.04 gpg (3rd)
Defence: 1.55 gapg (6th)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: StFX comes into the tournament as the hottest team in the nation as they're currently on a 16-game winning streak that included four wins over the former top-ranked Saint Mary's Huskies. If momentum means anything, the X-Women certainly have it right now, and they'll look to continue their winning ways. They've recorded the second-most shots (972), scored the second-most goals (85), have the tenth-best power-play (14.3%), and scored the most shorthanded goals (7) this season while posting the fourth-best penalty-killing efficiency (92.9%). Most of these stats have shit up considerably during their streak, but it's also reflective of their strong play over the second-half of the season.
The X-Women boast the AUS Player of the Year in Tyra Meropoulis whose 26 goals and 37 points were both best in the nation. Seven of Meropoulis' goals this season were game-winners while 19 of her 26 markers came at even-strength. She scores one out of every three goals for the X-Women, so she's going to be a threat every time she comes over the boards. The X-Women block shots, crowd the slot and front of the crease with bodies, don't mind a little physical play in their own zone. If they're going to be successful, they'll need not only Meropoulis to be at her best, but Lea MacLeod (10 goals, 20 points), Emerson Elliott (9 goals, 23 points), and Kristin McKinley (8 goals, 23 points) have to find the back of the net as well. Keep an eye on defenders Lindsay Donovan and Amy Graham who played well against the Huskies to chip in from the back end.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: The stat that Meropoulis boasts in terms of scoring 30.6% of all StFX goals can also work against them if Meropoulis is shadowed by a solid defensive specialist. The X-Women have to find scoring from other sources if Meropoulis is shutdown by a team, and it's likely teams will be game-planning for that very thing if they can hold Meropoulis at bay. StFX also seems to come unraveled when facing a stiff defensive effort with penalties being taken out of frustration rather by necessity. If they can't control their emotions nor find that depth scoring, it might be another year without an AUS champion in the medal round.
GAMETIME: Thursday, March 12 at 6pm ET/3pm PT versus Montreal on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 2.65 gpg (8th)
Defence: 1.83 gapg (13th)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: McGill is very good on both sides of the puck as they were eighth-best in goals-per-game, have the fourth-best shots-per-game average (31.3), and the third-best power-play efficiency (22.7%) while surrendering 25.7 shots-per-game, having the tenth-best penalty-killing efficiency (89.8%), and having the tenth-best save percentage (.931).
Lea Dumais (9 goals, 17 points), Jade Downie-Landry (8 goals, 18 points), and Marika Labrecque (6 goals, 15 points) led the way offensively for the Martlets while goaltender Tricia Deguire is still guarding the net like she did in helping McGill win the silver medal last season. The Martlets are a smart team who tend to capitalize on mistakes and force turnovers. They skate well, they defend well, and they're going to be a tough out at this year's tournament again.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: It's not often that an 11-9 team is a top-four seed, but here we are. The Martlets take a lot of penalties compared to drawing penalties. Over the course of the season, they were shorthanded 22 more times than they had the player-advantage, so the Martlets can't fall victim to their own demons in taking penalties. They don't get a ton of offence from their blue line as they scored just six goals and 22 points with senior Kate Devries accounting for one goal and 13 points herself along with just one power-play goal from a defender all season long. If the Martlets are going to take a serious run at a gold medal this year, they have to find secondary offence and offence from their blue line.
GAMETIME: Friday, March 13 at 2pm ET/11am PT versus York on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 2.71 gpg (7th)
Defence: 1.89 gapg (16th)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: York is an interesting case of a team showing much better playoff hockey than they did in the regular season. While they had a decent power-play efficiency at 18th-overall (12.5%), they were much better in killing penalties where they were sixth-best (91.7%). There's nothing statistically that stands out to make them a prohibitive favorite, but the recent improvement in the level they're playing at makes them potentially dangerous.
Kelsey McHolm (13 goals, 15 points) and Kara Washer (9 goals, 16 points) carried the bulk of the scoring for this team, but they do get scoring up and down their lineup as they score by committee. Senior netminder Lauren Dubie has the ability to steal games while defender Taylor Davison is one of the best at generating offence (4 goals, 20 points) from the blue line.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: York needs everyone bringing their A-games to this tournament as they don't have that legitimate game-breaking player. While McHolm is the go-to goal-scorer on the team, this team may be in the same boat as StFX if teams shut down her line as McHolm accounted for 20% of all of York's goals this season. If their goaltending is shaky at any point, I'm not certain their defensive corps can make up the difference.
GAMETIME: Friday, March 13 at 2pm ET/11am PT versus McGill on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 2.00 gpg (18th)
Defence: 2.05 gapg (18th)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: Montreal has been here before so their experience in playing at the National Championship may be the wild card they need as the nerves may not affect them as much as other teams. They were shorthanded the third-least number of times this season (73) while averaging the fifth-most shots on net per game (31.1) of all teams. On top of that, they do have a pretty big feather in their cap after knocking arguably the best team in the nation out of the running when they upset the Concordia Stingers in their RSEQ semifinal series, so the Carabins will have to bring that focus and intensity to games in Charlottetown.
Aube Racine backstopped this team to a bronze medal in Charlottetown last season, so she knows what it takes to get the job done as the starting netminder. Alexandra Labelle had a down year in points (6 goals, 13 points), but she's always lethal with the puck on her stick. Leading goal scorer Catherine Dubois (7 goals, 12 points) scored all seven goals at even strength, so keep an eye on her as well.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: It's hard to believe that a sub-.500 team could be the sixth-overall team at Nationals, but here we are with a 9-11 Montreal team being just that. This is a team whose leading goal scorer finished with just seven goals. They are 24th-best for power-play efficiency (10.1%), 26th-best in penalty-killing efficiency (86.3%), and just 19th-overall in save percentage (.918). This team will need to play just as they did against Concordia to have a chance, so it's definitely a possibility they could win. In reality, their losses to McGill in the RSEQ Final showed that there's a better chance they won't due to a lack of scoring and a defensive game that just isn't as good as their opposition.
GAMETIME: Thursday, March 12 at 6pm ET/3pm PT versus StFX on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 1.65 gpg (25th)
Defence: 1.59 gapg (8th)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: Mount Royal is the great unknown. For the first time in their history, they'll play at the National Championship so they may be able to use the fact that six other teams have very little knowledge about them. There's virtually zero pressure as their fairy-tale season continues, so they should play like it's the last games they'll ever play. Defensively, they are superior to a number of teams in the tournament, so they should look to their defence to make waves here. If they can control the tempo and use their speed, they could give fits to teams with what got them to the big dance - the Cougars transition well by using their speed and attack.
Anna Purschke (11 goals, 18 points) accounted for 25.6% of their goals this season, but the playoffs saw the line of Breanne Trotter, Tianna Ko, and Tatum Amy come to life. Jayden Thorpe scored a couple of key goals in the postseason and Kate Hufnagel had a career year, so expect these names to carry the offence for the Cougars. Defensively, captain Daria O'Neill and Norwegian rookie Emma Bergesen have been key performers while rookie netminder Kaitlyn Ross has been stellar in net.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: A .500 team that's 4-10 away from home ice doesn't exactly instill confidence in their chances to win. Statistically, nothing stands out for the Cougars as they travel to Charlottetown - 23rd in power-play efficiency (10.3%), 24th in penalty-killing efficiency (86.5%), and 29th in shots-per-game (21.9). While those numbers were better in the playoffs, the Canada West Final saw the Pandas dismantle the Cougars in Game One before a better effort in Game Two. There are no second chances at the National Championship, so the Cougars need to be ready at puck drop for whatever comes their way.
GAMETIME: Thursday, March 12 at 2pm ET/11am PT versus Toronto on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
Offence: 2.93 gpg (4th)
Defence: 1.49 gapg (5th)
WHY THEY MAY WIN: UPEI might be the best eighth-seed ever at this tournament. UPEI enters the tournament with the third-most goals scored this season (82), the fifth-best penalty-killing efficiency (92.3%), gave up the ninth-fewest goals (42), and is third-best in save percentage (.944). While they did lose in the AUS semifinal, I'm not sure how many eighth-seeded teams come into the National Championship with a 20-8 record on the season. Clearly, this team has the tools to be successful if they can get their wheels turning early. They were 10-4 on home ice against the AUS this season, so that bodes well if they have the crowd on their side.
Taylor Gillis (12 goals, 17 points), Kaylee Dufresne (11 goals, 18 points), and Jolena Gillard (10 goals, 20 points) scored 40.2% of the UPEI goals this season, but they also had four additional players with six-or-more goals this season as they get scoring from a variety of places. Defensively, Sophie Vandale (2 goals, 13 points) and Katelynn Nice (3 goals, 11 points) drive the offence from the blue line while the UPEI defence is mobile and active in filling shooting lanes and breaking up passes. Camille Scherger had another outstanding season between the pipes, and she will be relied upon for steadiness and experience as UPEI hosts this tournament for the second and final year.
WHY THEY MAY NOT: Beyond the three snipers above, UPEI needs to find consistent depth scoring if they hope to get to the medal round. Power-play success is vital in single-elimination games, and the Panthers have struggled to convert with the advantage as they're 21st-overall in power-play efficiency (12.1%). They also played shorthanded 117 times this season, so that number needs to be kept low if they want to see success in this tournament as giving other teams chances is never a good thing.
GAMETIME: Friday, March 13 at 6pm ET/3pm PT versus Alberta on CBCSports.ca, the CBC Sports App, and the CBC Gem app.
The Last Word
Here is the bracket for those wanting to follow at home.
From a Canada West perspective, you can call me a dreamer or a homer or whatever, but I really believe that if Mount Royal can beat Toronto, they have a very good shot at making the U SPORTS National Championship Final based on what we know about StFX and Montreal. Toronto will be a stiff test, though, so MRU will have to be ready for the fight of their lives in that first game. We've heard players say that the first game is the hardest because you don't know what to expect from a team you haven't played all season, but it's the same for both teams so why not go and wreck everything by leaving it all on the ice?
I feel that Alberta's first game against a very good UPEI team will not be easy and may be the toughest test of the tournament for them. The Pandas are very experienced and will draw on that to establish their game against the Panthers, but this is a scrappy Panthers squad that Manitoba fans know all too well in their game against UPEI last season. The Pandas will have to work for it, but I see them advancing.
You want predictions, you say? Well, here are a few picks based on everything. Of course, all money paid for these predictions is entirely refundable, so don't go blaming me if one of the other teams win.
- LOGICAL PICK: Alberta wins.
- OUT-OF-CONFERENCE PICK: StFX wins.
- DARKHORSE PICK: Mount Royal wins.
- NOT AS CRAZY AS IT SEEMS PICK: UPEI wins.
- HOMETOWN SUPPORT PICK: York wins (7 Manitobans).
- COMPLETE LUNACY PICK: Montreal wins.
It's the final weekend of U SPORTS women's hockey for another year next weekend, and I can't wait for the action to start!
Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!
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