Saturday, 28 August 2021

That's A Lot Of Dough

If your name is Jesperi Kotkaniemi and you played with the Montreal Canadiens last season, you should have a massive smile on your face thanks to the Carolina Hurricanes. In a rather stunning move, the Hurricanes offered a one-year offer sheet contract to Kotkaniemi for $6,100,015 with a signing bonus of $20. As you may recall, Marc Bergevin put an offer sheet in on Sebastian Aho back in 2019 which forced the Hurricanes into matching to keep his rights, and this move to lure Kotkaniemi away from the Canadiens reeks of revenge. However, all's fair in love, war, and hockey business, it seems, so the Montreal Canadiens are now on the clock when it comes to their former third-overall pick. I'll explain some of the trolling that Carolina did below, but it seems the Hatfields and McCoys are officially living in Montreal and Raleigh.

We'll go back to 2019 when Marc Bergevin, desperate to add some good, younger talent to the Canadiens, targeted Sebastian Aho of the Hurricanes who were in a bit of a tight spot with regards to their salary cap situation. The Canadiens offered a five-year deal worth $8.454 million annually. This irked the Hurricanes quite nicely, but the Hurricanes ponied up the dough and matched Montreal's offer for Aho.

It would seem that the Hurricanes filed this under "future revenge" because their offer is worth $6.1 million plus $15 as Kotkaniemi wears #15 on the ice. The $20 signing bonus seems to refer to Sebastian Aho as Aho wears #20 on the ice for the Hurricanes. In short, this offer sheet has all the ingredients for vengeance served cold in the pettiest of ways despite it being wholly entertaining for hockey fans. Let it be known that offer sheets - once a tool for GMs to use - are now simply being used by NHL general managers to one-up each other in gamesmanship.

If the Montreal Canadiens really wanted to make this interesting, they'd simply take the first- and third-round picks that Carolina would be forced to give up next season through the offer sheet process. It would handcuff the Hurricanes from making any additional roster moves this season unless they unloaded some talent as well. The two picks would bolster Montreal's 2022 NHL Entry Draft position as they'd end up with a pair of first-round picks and three third-round picks along with the cap room they'd save in not matching the Kotkaniemi offer.

If I'm Marc Bergevin, I am seriously giving this some thought with the likes of Elias Petterson still unsigned as a restricted free agent, Jack Eichel being available for a trade in Buffalo, or some other potential deal that would improve the Canadiens immediately. With Nick Suzuki likely penciled in as the top center for now, it would seem that Montreal may have some options if they were to let Kotkaniemi walk.

What makes this offer sheet hard to fathom from Carolina's point of view is that Kotkaniemi hasn't proven that he's worth $6 million per season, let alone one season at that value. His five goals and 15 assists last season are rather underwhelming, but he did show flashes of brilliance in Montreal's system in the playoffs. Does that warrant a huge raise for one season? If Kotkaniemi doesn't or can't eclipse his 2018-19 numbers of 11 goals an 34 points, why would Montreal take that chance?

At this point, I'm leaning towards taking the picks from Carolina in a one-year deal. Kotkaniemi would still be a restricted free agent at the conclusion of the Hurricanes' deal, so they'd have to qualify him in order to keep him and that's another large chunk of change that Tom Dundon, owner of the Hurricanes, would have to spend. Otherwise, Kotkaniemi would be a free agent and Montreal could circle back and re-sign him if they wanted him back. Those two picks, though, would help Montreal immensely in building for another Stanley Cup run, so Bergevin would be wise to think long-term here rather than short-term.

At the end of the day, this revenge offer sheet really makes no sense from the Hurricanes' point of view other than to mess with the Canadiens and Marc Bergevin. Because they didn't offer term on the offer sheet, though, this may blow up in their faces as a one-year deal doesn't really handcuff the Canadiens whatsoever. We already know that Tom Dundon watches his nickels and dimes carefully, so what exactly was the point of this other than pure pettiness over Bergevin trying to improve his club at the expense of the Hurricanes in 2019?

If Bergevin doesn't match, the joke's on Tom Dundon and the Carolina Hurricanes. They'll have overspent for one season on a kid who likely will play bottom-six minutes for the Hurricanes, and that's likely going to be fine with the Canadiens as they use those two picks that the Hurricanes surrender to make themselves better.

Sometimes, it pays off to think things through a little. Let this be a lesson for all NHL general managers who want to play petty games in the offer sheet world.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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