The First Goal: Part Two
Finish: 1st in Canada West.
Playoffs: Won Conference.
Alberta's 19-8-1-0 record might be the shining example of getting a lead and never looking back. The Pandas posted a 16-0-0-0 record when scoring the first goal of the game, with eight wins coming at home and eight wins coming on the road. When you consider that the Pandas were 3-8-1-0 when they didn't score first, the Pandas used the score-first idea better than any other Canada West team. When they chased the game, they were remarkably mediocre.
There is a bit of another side to this 16-0 record, though. Alberta's five-on-five play only produced seven first scores. Their nine power-play first goals were a large margin higher than any other team, but this also reinforces the importance of scoring with an advantage. Alberta used their early power-play opportunities to put teams behind, a strategy that worked well for them all season long.
Alberta posted five wins where they scored the first goal in November, and added another six wins in January where they scored the first goal. That's 33 points in the standings right there - more than half their final total. If teams want to slow the Pandas, they can't let Alberta score first.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 8-0-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 8-0-0-0.
If there's one surprise when looking at who did the most damage for the Pandas, Alex Poznikoff didn't score an opening goal all season long. When one considers how important she was in the Alberta offence, you'd expect to see her name there. Luckily, she had lots of support in that department as Alberta showed good scoring depth all season long.
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Madison Willan (4), Autumn MacDougall (4), Kennedy Ganser (2), Danielle Hardy (2), Alex Gowie (2), Lisa Lloyd (1), Abby Benning (1).
Finish: 2nd in Canada West.
Playoffs: Lost in semifinal.
Calgary earned a ton of wins by scoring first as well, equaling the sixteen opening scores that Alberta had in posting a 14-1-0-1 record. An October regulation loss to Saskatchewan and a November shootout loss to Lethbridge were the two blemishes on Calgary's record, but earning three points in 87.5% of the games they score first and gaining points in 89.6% of games where they scored first is a big reason Calgary went from missing the playoffs to nearly winning the conference over one season. If there is a concern, it's the 3-6-1-2 record when they don't score first. Calgary doesn't come back often after being down.
It should be noted that Calgary scored four power-play goals in their total of sixteen first goals, and 13 of those goals came in the first period. The Dinos were keen to establish a lead, and showed the mettle to hold the lead often. As stated above, they faltered twice, but for a team that struggled hard one season earlier this change in their play bodes well for the future.
Calgary did the reverse of Alberta in that they posted six wins when scoring first in November and added five more wins in January where they hit the scoresheet first. Again, earning 43 of their points in games where they scored first shows that they can mount a lead and then hold it - a trait they hadn't shown much of in previous seasons. Head coach Danielle Goyette has a lot of good of which to build off if this trend continues.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 6-0-0-1.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 8-1-0-0.
I was a little shocked that Sara Craven only appeared once on the list of first-goal scorers, but it's pretty clear that Calgary's regular goal scorers were in on the action often when it came to putting Calgary ahead on the scoreboard first. And check out former captain Paige Michalenko's contributions from the blue line!
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Paige Michalenko (3), Delaney Frey (3), Elizabeth Lang (2), Annaliese Meier (2), Sara Craven (1), Rebecca Clarke (1), Jordyn Burgar (1), Dana Wood (1), Chelsea Court (1), Brooke Dennett (1).
Finish: 3rd in Canada West.
Playoffs: Lost in quarterfinal.
Saskatchewan ability to defend leads is no surprise as they often fall into a defensive shell, but, because they don't score a lot, putting teams away early is more of a challenge than it is for teams like Calgary and Alberta. That being said, Saskatchewan was still 12-3-0-2 in 2019-20 when scoring first, but that 2-4-3-2 record when they don't score first should concern head coach Steve Kook. If Saskatchewan doesn't score first, they're a sub-.500 team, and we know the Huskies don't score a ton of goals. If one team needs to ramp up the offence, the Huskies are it.
Saksatchewan scored six power-play first goals of the seventeen they scored all season, so there should be little concern about the Huskies using the advantages awarded to them. The 11 five-on-five goals are also a respectable total considering that they only scored 55 goals all season long. Take the 16 special teams goals off that total of 55, and the 11 times they scored first represents 28.2% of all the even-strength goals they scored this past season. It might be time to take the reins off the offence a little for the Huskies.
January was Saskatchewan's best month when it came to scoring first and winning games, posting a 5-1-0-0 record in those games. That one loss came against Alberta early in the month in a game where the Huskies and Pandas were tied 2-2 going into the third period, but the Huskies couldn't find any additional goals in a 3-2 loss. Again, the Huskies need to keep the offence rolling against good teams in order to finish those teams off to help themselves.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 7-1-0-2.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 5-2-0-0.
I'm a little shocked not to see names like Upgang or Haubrich even make the list, and Bailee Bourassa only shows up once. What should be pointed out is that Saskatchewan blue line really chipped in to get the offence going based on first scores. If they can keep that up in coming seasons, the Huskies will always be in good standing!
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Abby Shirley (3), Shyan Elias (3), Leah Bohlken (2), Emma Nutter (2), Elizabeth Salyn (2), Sophie Lalor (1), Kennedy Brown (1), Chelsea Debusschere (1), Bailee Bourassa (1).
Finish: 4th in Canada West.
Playoffs: Lost in final.
Mount Royal is an interesting case in scoring first when one considers that they posted a 10-0-1-0 record when they notched the first goal, but they only scored that opening goal in the first period twice from November through to February (five total). It's hard to believe that a team could wait until the second and third periods to score the opening goal of games as often as Mount Royal did and find the success they did, but it seems to have worked for them. What shouldn't be overlooked is that the Cougars were a dreadful 2-14-1-0 when they didn't score first. Playing from behind was not the Cougars' strength this season, and they didn't do enough to help themselves on the road when it came to scoring first.
Of their eleven first goals, only two came on the power-play which is a testament to their five-on-fie play. However, Mount Royal's four third-period first goals should likely be addressed as they accounted for 40% of all the third-period opening goals scored in the conference - no other team had more than one. While all four of those games resulted in three-point wins and giving your opponents as little time to mount a comeback as possible is an interesting tactic, a 0-0 game heading into the third period also could be perilous if the Cougars don't take advantage. Get out in front early, Cougars. It's your best bet on earning points like you did in October when first period leads turned into a 5-0-0-0 record.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 8-0-1-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-0-0-0.
The Cougars showed their scoring depth as the season progressed, and their first-goal scorers are a reflection of that depth. No one player has more than two, but there are eight players who notched an opening goal.
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Anna Purschke (2), Kate Hufnagel (2), Tatum Amy (1), Kate Scidmore (1), Nicolette Seper (1), Daria O'Neill (1), Breanne Trotter (1), Andrea Sanderson (1).
Finish: 5th in Canada West.
Playoffs: Lost in quarterfinal.
Regina's season was kind of two parts in which they struggled early on before turning everything around in the second-half of the campaign. As a result, the 7-3-2-1 record that Regina posted when scoring first is a little deceiving. Prior to December, the Cougars were 2-2-1-0 after scoring first in just five games, but they went bananas in the second-half of the season where they posted a 5-1-1-1 record when scoring first. That push in the second half propelled them up the standings from 8th-place into 5th-place and into a playoff spot! If Regina didn't have such a bad first half of the season, it's likely they could have overtaken Mount Royal.
Four of Regina's 13 first goals came on the power-play, so they showed that they can score at even-strength and when given opportunitues. What should concern head coach Sarah Hodges is defending a lead once they get it. Regina, as shown above, had a 7-3-2-1 record, meaning that of a potential 39 points in those games they only secured 26 points (66.67%) - significantly lower than the conference points percentage average of 77.18% and only better than one other team in conference. If Regina wants to improve their standing, defending a lead might be the first priority.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 4-1-0-1.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-2-2-0.
There's no doubt that Jaycee Magwood was the goal-scoring sensation on this team, but Regina really relied on her to pace the offence as five of her eleven total goals opened the scoring for the Cougars. For players potentially returning in 2021, no one had more than one goal.
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Jaycee Magwood (5), Merissa Zerr (2), Tamara McVannel (1), Paige Hubbard (1), Jordan Kulbida (1), Jenna Merk (1), Elise Endicott (1), Chelsea Hallson (1).
Finish: 6th in Canada West.
Playoffs: Lost in semifinal.
Despite going through a stretch last season where the Thunderbirds couldn't buy a goal, the T-Birds still managed to score first in 12 games, posting a 7-1-1-3 record in those games. That remaining 2-12-0-2 record was part of that 300+ minutes of being shutout, so seeing the Thunderbirds not only make the playoffs but upset the Saskatchewan Huskies in the quarterfinal showed that they still could right the ship after a tough stretch. That being said, the 3-1-1-1 record following October's games shows that something wasn't working in UBC. The games they scored first in were six in October, four in November, two in January, and zero in February. That's trending in the wrong direction.
UBC got half of their first goals on special teams as the power-play scored five times while Ashley McFadden's shorthanded marker in October against Regina in a UBC win was the lone shorthanded marker to open the scoring in Canada West play this year. The weird part is that UBC was 2-1-0-2 in games where they opened the scoring with a power-play goal, so I'm not sure why they took their foot off the gas when they had their opponents down. The one regulation loss came in an 11am game against Saskatchewan where the Thunderbirds jumped out to a 3-0 lead before losing the game 4-3. Head coach Graham Thomas' team needs to rediscover its killer instinct, especially at home, and finish off these teams when he has a chance. Giving up free points when they hold a lead isn't a normal T-Birds trait.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-1-0-2.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 4-0-1-1.
It's not the usual cast of characters for the T-Birds who kicked off the scoring as Mathea Fischer, Hannah Clayton-Carroll, and Shay-Lee McConnell combined for just one of the goals. On the other hand, the T-Birds found some good depth scoring, and Mikayla Ogrodniczuk stepped up on the blue line in a big way. McFadden, it should be noted, scored an even-strength goal, a power-play goal, and a shorthanded goal to pull off the rare first-goal three different ways!
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Ashley McFadden (3), Mikayla Ogrodniczuk (2), Tiffany Chiu (2), Ireland Perrott (1), Hannah Koroll (1), Hannah Clayton-Carroll (1), Emma Hall (1), Chanreet Bassi (1).
Finish: 7th in Canada West.
Playoffs: Missed playoffs.
Like UBC, Manitoba went through a dry spell that totalled 300+ minutes where they didn't score a goal. Not scoring in six games certainly reduces the chances of scoring first, and Manitoba was lowest-scoring team in the conference which also doesn't help. They still posted a 6-1-2-0 record when scoring first, but the flip side is that they went 2-16-0-1 when they didn't score first. That's something that head coach Jon Rempel needs to address for next season: either score first or there's a lot of heavy lifting to do. Manitoba did go 2-0-0-0 in October when scoring first, but the wheels came off for the rest of the season after that.
Manitoba was the one team that relied on special teams the least to open the scoring. They recorded just one power-play goal in the nine contests they scored first, but they also recorded the fewest first period first-scores with just four goals. Manitoba needs to be ready to play in every game, and, with a young team, instilling these lessons now should pay dividends this season and beyond. Playing from behind is something the Bisons can't do - they're simply not built for it at this point. Scoring more as a general rule should help the efforts in scoring first as well. The Bisons' lone loss after scoring first came against Mount Royal in January - one of two Mount Royal wins after trailing this season.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 4-0-2-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-1-0-0.
Not surprisingly, Jordyn Zacharias makes the list as she was a consistent goal scorer throughout her career. The emergence of Kate Gregoire in the second-half of the season also helped Manitoba after Émilie Massé's production slowed in November.
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Jordyn Zacharias (2), Émilie Massé (2), Kate Gregoire (2), Mekaela Fisher (1), Megan Neduzak (1), Chloe Snaith (1).
Finish: 8th in Canada West.
Playoffs: Missed playoffs.
In what has to be the most statistically-weird portion of this article, we come to the team that lit the lamp first out of all Canada West teams as the Lethbridge Pronghorns were on the scoreboard before anyone else 17 times! The problem is that those 17 times led to a record of 6-8-1-2 in those games as the Pronghorns scored first, but seemingly had no idea what to do after that. For a team that has missed the playoffs for the better part of their existence and certainly over the last six seasons, you can see that they may not be used to playing with leads all that often. However, I still expected them to win a few more games once they established the lead, but that wasn't the case in reality.
After jumping out to a first-place standing in October on the strength of a 4-2-0-1 record when scoring six first-period opening goals, the tires once again came off for the Pronghorns. Through November, January, and February, they posted leads in ten more games only amass a record of 2-6-1-1 despite leading for a portion of the game.
In this anomoly of stats, Lethbridge was the only Canada West team to not record an opening goal in the third period, possibly allowing their opposition enough time to mount a comeback. 14 times, they opened the scoring in the first period - more than any other team. They only used two power-play goals to establish leads with fifteen other leads grabbed through five-on-five play. It seems more and more clear that this was about Lethbridge's response to their opponents' pushback as they tried to defend that lead.
HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-3-0-2.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-5-1-0.
It should come as no surprise that Lethbridge's big guns were doing the scoring as Van Vaerenbergh, Greig, and Borrow were all on the list. It is encouraging to see both Sansregret and Verbicky on the list as they'll be expected to provide that kind of goal scoring next season with the MacEwan Griffins.
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Tricia Van Vaerenbergh (4), Krya Greig (3), Alli Borrow (2), Kianna Dietz (2), Sage Sansregret (1), Mila Verbicky (1), Mikaela Reay (1), Katelyn Breitkreuz (1), Eryn Johansen (1), Brooklyn Palmer (1).
That's a deep dive into the team side of things based on how often each team scored first and who was doing the scoring. Needless to say, I'm nearly cross-eyed and seeing double from scouring the scoresheets and boxscores of 112 games, but seeing this kind of information that teams can use is why Canada West and the individual teams should be doing deeper dives into the analytics of the game.
Scoring first matters to every team, but it's now quantified just how much it meant to Canada West teams in 2019-20. As we progress through future seasons, I feel like this something I should be able to maintain so watch this space for more detailed analysis such as this!
Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!
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