Saturday, 19 June 2021

The Case For #6

When it comes to veteran defencemen in the NHL, it's a pretty safe bet that you know what you're getting when it comes to free agency. Usually, the guys who have all sorts of value to their teams are locked into new contracts long before free agency hits, but there will likely be a number of good defencemen on the market the free agency period begins on July 28 simply due to salary cap crunches. We've seen the Carolina Hurricanes allow Dougie Hamilton to explore options, but I might hold out to see if Ryan Pulock becomes available with the Islanders needing to sign a pile of key players.

Tonight's heroics aside, it's very likely that if any team lands Hamilton or Pulock, that team gets better with the addition. Both Hamilton and Pulock play big minutes, provide excellent play at both ends of the rink, rarely take penalties, and are often tasked to play against the other team's best players. Those are the kinds of things all coaches desire from their defencemen, so it makes sense that few are available.

In comparing the two, there's no denying that both will be paid handsomely following this season. How rich those final contract numbers will be will certainly depend on salary cap numbers among the teams vying for their services, but paying Hamilton more than Pulock seems like it would be a foolish move by any team based on the last three seasons of work these two men have recorded.

There's no denying that Hamilton is the more offensive of the two men over the last three seasons, having scored 42 goals and 79 assists in 184 games compared to Pulock's 21 goals and 68 assists in 206 games. If you're looking to generate offence from the blue line, your team's GM is likely looking at Hamilton more than Pulock for that offence. The only offensive category that Pulock where Hamilton is even with Hamilton is in power-play goals as both men have six in three years, so you know that Hamilton is driving the offence from the back-end for the Hurricanes.

However, the defence play skew wildly over to Pulock when defending one's own zone. Pulock actually has averaged more ice time than Hamilton - 22:24 per game compared to 21:30 per game - as Pulock became the anchor on which Barry Trotz leaned. It should be noted that Pulock blocked 393 shots to Hamilton's 218 - again, a Barry Trotz defensive requirement - but the willingness to block shots is transferable to new teams. And comparably, Pulock has just 44 PIMs in those three years compared to Hamilton's 121 minutes in the sin bin. If your best players need to be on the ice, Pulock averaging less than 15 minutes per season watching from the penalty box is a good option.

If there's any question as to which player your team goes after, the answer should be "both". If you miss on one, the other is still in play. Knowing what you're getting out of both of them, though, might be the big question because Hamilton may be at the top of his game at age 28 currently, but it's pretty clear that Pulock, at age 26, has been getting better with each season that passes. Here's Evolving Hockey's look at Goals Above Replacement between the two with a few comparisons back in March.
If we're using that chart from the 2020-21 season, it's pretty clear that Hamilton's numbers are among the NHL's elite defencemen, but Pulock's are better in some cases. If he continues to get better, Pulock will clearly become one of the NHL's best all-around defencemen. With him being two years younger, it would make sense to offer a longer deal to Pulock based on those improving numbers from year to year assuming his usage will be similar where ever he signs.

Among the other players that are around that 26-28 year-old range where Hamilton and Pulock are, the names include Ryan Murray (NJD), Adam Larsson (EDM), Brandon Montour (FLA), Jake McCabe (BUF), Jamie Oleksiak (DAL), Mike Reilly (BOS), and Cody Ceci (PIT). None of them are anywhere close to the level that Hamilton and Pulock play at, so there will be some big pay days this summer when it comes to teams looking for top defenders with Hamilton and Pulock leading the way.

Based on their seasons this year and over the last three seasons, there's no reason why they shouldn't get solid raises from their current deals from teams needing an infusion of talent on the blue line. Again, you need to know what you're getting with each because they are different players entirely in terms of how they play the game, but the overall is that there is an abundance of talent in either player who can make teams better.

In the end, I'd go with the younger player who is a better defender, but if you have a player who already is in that role, the more offensively-gifted player would be a smart choice.

If you're asking me, I'm now campaigning for a Pionk-Pulock pairing in Winnipeg as the top pair with Morrissey-DeMelo as the second pair. Having those four in the Winnipeg double-blue at my disposal would make the Jets a better defensive team overall while maintaining the offence from the blue line that these four bring. Add in the likes of Logan Stanley and Ville Heinola, and the Jets have a very capable squad come 2021-22.

Your move, Chevy. If Pulock isn't signed by July 28 by the Islanders, bring the Manitoba-born defender home.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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