Numbers That Don't Mean Much

With Canada West hockey starting in less than a month, most of the teams have already played in some sort of exhibition game or series against other teams. Whether they be prep teams, Canada West teams, or teams from other university leagues such as the ACAC, every team in Canada West women's hockey has squeezed at least one game in on their preseason schedule at this point. In what has become an annual tradition since 2017, the Manitoba Bisons and Regina Cougars met in a neutral site game to work through a couple of preseason tilts, so I thought it might be a good time to look at how these preseason games have played out with respect to the numbers.

With Manitoba winning both games this weekend in Russell, Manitoba by 3-1 scores, the Bisons improved their preseason record over the Cougars to an impressive 11-2 mark. The Bisons have scored 46 goals in those 13 contests to Regina's 17 goals, so it appears that the easternmost Canada West team is dominant when compared to the southern Saskatchewan team. This, though, is where we need to pump the brakes a little because we all know that preseason results may not be entirely accurate when it comes to regular season final standings.

While the results from this season will play out over the next few months, let's look at the seasons where these two teams met in the preseason and see how things turned out.

In 2019-20, the Bisons and Cougars met twice in the preseason with the Bisons winning 6-0 while the Cougars won 1-0. During the season, Regina went 2-1-1-0 (W-L-OTW-OTL) compared to Manitoba's 1-2-0-1. Manitoba was shutout three times by the Cougars, scoring just two goals in four games while Regina scored six in those four games. At the end of the season, Regina finished nine points ahead of Bisons in the standings, so that 6-0 win by the Bisons really was an aberration from how the regular season played out.

In 2018-19, the Bisons and Cougars met once in the preseason with the Bisons prevailing by a 4-2 score. The Bisons went 3-0-1-0 in the four regular season gamnes against the Cougars, outscoring Regina by an 18-9 count over those games. The biggest number in this season's comparison is that the Bisons finished 25 points ahead of the Cougars in the standings. That 4-2 score might have suggested the Bisons were better, but I'm not sure it showed that they were 25 points better.

In 2017-18, the Bisons picked up two preseason wins over the Cougars by 2-1 and 4-2 scores. The regular season saw the Bisons go 4-0 over the Cougars as they outscored Regina 11-2 in those games, so this season saw the preseason results carry into the regular season. It should be noted, though, that Manitoba, who would go on to win the U SPORTS National Championship that season, finished the season 32 points ahead of Regina. Again, the low-scoring affairs didn't seem to suggest a gap that wide between the two teams.

We need to skip to the 2014-15 season where the Bisons and Cougars met in the preseason once more. The Bisons would win 4-0 in that lone preseason game, and they would take the season series by a 1-0-2-1 record compared to the Cougars' record of 0-1-1-2. If it weren't for the 6-1 win late in the season by the Bisons, the total goals would see a one-goal difference between the two teams. However, Manitoba did end up outscoring Regina 11-5 in the season series, but the three close games that needed extra time to decide them was not indicative of the 16-point difference that Manitoba had on Regina that season.

2012-13 is the next preseason game between these two programs, and Manitoba would win that game by a 5-3 score. However, Regina would go 2-0-2-0 in the regular season while Manitoba recored an 0-2-0-2 record against Regina. Regina outscored Manitoba 14-9 in those four games, and they'd finish 13 points ahead of the Bisons in the standings as the 5-3 win by the Bisons in the preseason clearly meant nothing once the real games started.

2011-12 saw Manitoba and Regina split the two preseason games with Regina winning 2-1 before Manitoba took the second contest by a 3-2 score. During the regular season, Manitoba went 3-0-0-1 to Regina's 0-3-1-0 record as Mantioba outscored Regina 9-5 in those contests. What makes this season a little weird is that Manitoba finished in fifth-place while Regina finished in sixth-place, but there was a 12-point gap between the two teams. While the regular season scoring was similar to the close results in the preseason, the 3-0-0-1 record and the 12-point advantage in the standings posted by Manitoba were not.

The final season we'll look at is the 2010-11 season where Manitoba took both preseason games over Regina by 7-0 and 4-2 scores. Things didn't get much better for Regina in the regular season as Manitoba went 3-1-0-0 while outscoring Regina 19-3 in those games, but Regina's 2-1 win at the end of January certainly wasn't expected. Based on these scores, it looked like Manitoba might be some sort of juggernaut, but Manitoba finished 15 points ahead of Regina in the standings.

So what does this all mean?

Th answer is that the scoring over the course of the season seems to be fairly similar to what we see in the preseason aside from a few weird scores that don't line up with the rest of the season. Because the preseason has so many strange variables that can be magnified in one or two games, we really should look at it as less of a predictor of results for the season and more as a way to predict scoring trends in a season. That's what I usually take away from the scoring - it's less about wins and losses and more about how teams are playing systemically in terms of goals-for and goals-against.

We also know that Regina, as a team, is typically a slow starter when it comes to earning wins early in the season. Sarah Hodges is an exceptional coach who really moulds her team into what she wants by the time the calendar flips to November and December, so September and October scores, in my view, mean very little as Sarah implements her systems and has her young players adapt to how she needs them to play within that system. Because of these seemingly annual slow starts by the Cougars, I don't lend much belief in wins and losses because the Cougars always seem to find a playoff spot by the end of the season.

In saying all that, just because the Bisons went 2-0 on the strength of back-to-back 3-1 wins this weekend doesn't mean fans shouldn't be excited about either team. Manitoba and Regina are both young, fast teams who have a ton of talent, and I'm guessing from those scores that we're going to see four really good games between these two squads. If it's any indication, I see these two teams playing down to the wire for playoff spots and possibly jockeying for position when it comes to who plays whom in the playoffs.

The one big takeaway from all of this, though, is that we need to temper expectations when it comes to preseason results. Winning is fun and it always feels good, but the games start for real on October 15. Both teams are using these games to build for that night.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!