The O'Reilly Factor?

I don't think many people will fault Kyle Dubas for his latest attempt at tweaking the Toronto Maple Leafs so they have all the right tools for the postseason. Over the years, he's made deals for big names, he's added grit with role players, he's overhauled the blue line a number of times, and the goaltending carousel has seen puck-stoppers of all varieties stand in the blue paint. If Dubas thinks a player will help a team, he's not afraid to throw caution to the wind to make a deal that he feels will improve the club despite the club's finish every season being short of the goal he promised. Today's trade, while impressive in its details, could finally push Toronto to heights not seen since 1967, but it's hard to overlook his more glaring needs.

Using a three-team setup in order to make the salary acquisition work, the Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Ryan O'Reilly, Noel Acciari, and the rights to Saskatoon Blades forward Josh Pillar from St. Louis in exchange for Toronto's first-round pick in the 2023 NHL Draft, the Ottawa Senators' third-round pick this year, Toronto's second-round pick in the 2024 NHL Draft, and forwards Mikhail Abramov and Adam Gaudette. In order to make the salary cap requirements fit, the Blues will retain 50% of O'Reilly's salary while the Leafs dealt their fourth-round pick in the 2025 NHL Draft to the Wild for thw Wild to absorb 25% of O'Reilly's salary as well.

This deal, which sees O'Reilly come to Toronto on an expiring contract, goes completely against what Dubas said one week earlier. When asked about making a deal that involved first-round picks or blue-chip prospects, Dubas replied, "In regards to rentals, I can't see that happening. But with regards to other options, I don't think you say no off the hop to anything, but those are very important pieces to us, now and in the future."

After making this deal, the Leafs now have no first-round pick in the 2023 NHL Entry Draft, no second-round picks for the next three years of drafts, and a conditional third-round pick in 2023 that could be plucked away by Arizona as part of the deal that sent Nick Ritchie to Arizona. So exactly how important are those draft picks if Dubas continually makes deals that involve them?

On paper and on the ice, this deal does make Toronto better. O'Reilly is a heart-and-soul kind of guy who does all the little things right when it comes to winning games. He finds offensive spots for scoring chances, he's defensively responsible, he goes to the hgih-traffic areas, he can play on special teams, and he's a key faceoff guy. He'll leave everything on the ice for the Leafs when it comes to getting maximum effort, and that the kind of player who can will a team to victory if everyone follows his lead.

Acciari makes the bottom-six guys in Toronto better as well as he can check, skate, and has shown the ability to score. I'm not certain what role he'll be asked to fill for the Leafs at this point, but his versatility should give the Leafs some flexibility when it comes to deployment. He did score 20 goals in 2019-20 with the Florida Panthers and he has ten goals already this season, so he'll give the Leafs some punch where they haven't seen a lot this season.

Where this deal doesn't make a lot of season is from the blue line back to the net for the Leafs. No one is ever going to accuse the Leafs of not being able to score, and they current sit tied for seventh-overall in total goals-for and are eighth-overall for goals-for per game. Defensively, the Leafs have also shown some ability as they've allowed the sixth-fewest goals-against this season and are tied for fourth-overall for goals-against per game. Perhaps I was wrong in that they don't need help in the defensive zone?

I'll admit it's hard to see those numbers when one considers that there isn't a big-minute, puck-moving defenceman in Morgan Rielly, TJ Brodie, Mark Giordano, and Timothy Liljegren, nor is there a shutdown-type guy in any of those four names either. As we all know, playoff hockey changes from regular season hockey, so it will be interesting to see how Sheldon Keefe deploys these guys in the playoffs against Kucherov, Point, Stamkos, and Hedman.

With Matt Murray going on LTIR today as well, the Leafs appear to be shutting him down until the playoffs roll around, meaning they're pinning their hopes on a revigorated Ilya Samsonov and some spot duty by Joseph Woll at the moment. No one will fault Samsonov's regular season numbers this season as he's 19-6-2 with a 2.31 GAA and a .918 save percentage, but one has to wonder if this is 2020-21 Samsonov where he was 13-4-1 with Washington on the strength of a 2.69 GAA and a .902 save percentage before Boston beat him in three overtime games in the playoffs.

One could make the case that Murray is the Leafs' starter come the playoffs, but that too seems foolish based on Murray's career statistics against Tampa Bay where he sports a 4-4-2 record, a 3.01 GAA, and an .895 save percentage. In contrast, Samsonov is 2-0-0 against the Lightning in his career with a 2.52 GAA and a .911 save percentage. Comparatively, Andrei Vasilevskiy is 14-9-2 against Toronto with a 2.50 GAA and a .922 save percentage. If the playoffs are about defence and goaltending, the Lightning - Toronto's virtually-assured first-round opponent - win that comparison easily.

With Murray being Dubas' guy, though, I don't expect the Leafs to make a deal for a netminder prior to the trade deadline, so they'll be staring down the likes of Tampa Bay and Boston with Murray and Samsonov as their top tandem. Defensively, Dubas could make a few more moves if he chooses, but finding a top-line defender or an NHL-calibre shutdown guy that has term without trading more picks will likely be difficult. One can make the argument that they'll be fine with their current defensive zone personnel - that could be true - but Dubas has never shied away from making a deal that he thinks will improve his team.

That's what makes this deal with St. Louis so puzzling - he paid a heavy price to get O'Reilly when it's been shown time and again that scoring in the playoffs has never been an issue for the Leafs. He likely could have made a deal for a solid playoff defender - Ryan McDonagh in Nashville? John Klingberg in Anaheim? - that would have been less newsworthy, but, if the biggest headline a teams makes is at the trade deadline, it's hard to justify giving up the assets that Toronto did in acquiring O'Reilly and Acciari.

I can't claim that Toronto didn't get better today. They certainly did, and the late evening trade was unexpected based on what Dubas had said earlier in the month. O'Reilly has shown that he can be a leader in helping the Blues win the Stanley Cup, and the former Conn Smythe Trophy winner certainly performs in the playoffs. Toronto will be a harder out in these playoffs with the addition of O'Reilly.

One has to wonder, though, if that "out" will again be in the opening round of the playoffs. While there's still time to do something, not addressing the elephant in the room once again may eventually be what ends up getting Dubas fired if his team fails to advance out of the Atlantic Division in the playoffs.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!