The First-Overall Pick And A Math Degree

Aside from John Buccigross's overly-excited reactions to the lottery ping pong balls coming out of the machine, I found myself wondering why the NHL opted to go to the four-ball method during their hour of NHL Draft Lottery coverage. There is a mathematical randomness that is baked into the four-ball method which is what everyone wants, but the actual broadcast of watching four ping pong balls being selected, repeated, posted to a graphic, and discussion about draft odds just seemed unnecessary. Let's look at the math involved, though.

As we saw, fourteen ping pong balls were dropped into the machine where they began randomly bouncing around as the timer was counted down from its 30-second starting point. These fourteen ping pong balls represent 1000 different four-ball numerical combinations that can be ascertained as the balls are drawn from the machine. With each team being assigned a specific number of combinations based on their finish during the NHL regular season, odds can be produced based on which numbers are being drawn and which numbers are needed for specific teams to be selected.

Based on the NHL standings, the San Jose Sharks had the most combinations (185/1000 combinations) assigned to them as they were the worst team in the NHL statistically this season. They were followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (135/1000) and Nashville Predators (115/1000). As teams finished higher in the standings, the number of combinations assigned to those teams would continue to decrease until all 1000 combinations had been filled. That's how teams got their four-digit combinations which can be viewed here.

As the balls were being drawn, we saw teams eliminated while others saw their odds increase when it came to moving up to the first-overall selections spot. A few teams wouldn't actually reach that coveted spot in the draft as the maximum number of spots that any team could increase its draft lottery spot was ten, so only eleven of the 16 teams in the draft had a shot at the first-overall selection. However, moving from sixteen to six, for example, would help the Calgary Flames potentially land a better prospect.

As we saw during tonight's drawing of the first three ping pong balls, only seven teams remained with a shot at the first-overall pick. That last ball determined the winner of the lottery based on the combinations, and we know the New York Islanders held the correct combination of 7-11-12-13 to give them the first-overall selection. Based on the askew draft board shown below, the final number could have pushed a number of teams into the first-overall spot.

With #13 being picked, the Islanders will now select in the first-overall spot for the fifth time in team history despite only having a 3.5% chance of landing in that spot. Utah saw their fortunes improve as well during the second-overall selection drawings as they moved up those ten spots from 14th-overall to fourth-overall, leaving San Jose to pick second-overall and Chicago to pick third-overall in this year's NHL Entry Draft. Winning the lottery matters!

So why the change? Well, the old process where the lottery outcome was done in advance under the supervision of a lottery technician, an accounting firm, and media witnesses led to conspiracy theories about how the NHL was rigging the lottery in favour of specific franchises. Those conspiracists voiced their thoughts loudly when Connor McDavid went to the Oilers and Connor Bedard went to the Blackhawks, so the process needed a change. Of course, when ESPN let it slip that Columbus had received the third-overall pick in 2023 before Bill Daly flipped the card over, that only made matters worse.

Did it make for good TV tonight? I can't say that it did, to be honest. I never bought into the conspiracy theories before, and I'm a firm believer that the worst team should get a shot at the picking the best player. For a league that loves parity, it seems counterpoint to give a team that finished at the .500 mark the opportunity to select best player in the draft. Watching Gary Bettman count each ball that was dropped into the machine like a Sesame Street bit was painful, and the enthusiasm that Buccigross had for the entire process felt forced.

I don't care if the NHL wants to record the entire process and post it on their website or to YouTube or some other video site to give everyone the proof they need to see in order to believe the results. I don't think airing the process on television made for riveting, can't-miss television at all, and pushing the Toronto-Florida game back by an hour accomplished nothing. Just give me the draft order with a link to how the results were obtained, and I'll be fine.

Congratulations to the New York Islanders on beating the odds and grabbing that first-overall pick this summer. That's an exciting time for the franchise, and it could be the start of something big on Long Island. What I didn't need tonight was the fanfare and television event over ping pong balls being chosen while needing the advanced math degree needed to understand how the lottery was designed.

Watching that all play out tonight with an overly-caffeinated John Buccigross, a monotoned Gary Bettman, and some NHL guy staring at a timer was as exciting as reading a math textbook for fun.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

Things I May Have Tweeted

I'll admit that it was hard watching Connor Hellebuyck struggle through nine periods of hockey in St. Louis. Tonight, it felt like the roof may cave in on the Jets once again as it seemed like a couple of softies got by the expected-Vezina Tropy winner for this season. Yet once that improbable goal was scored by Cole Perfetti with three seconds left in the game to tie the contest at 3-3, it was like a switch went off for Hellebuyck in overtime as he was absolutely stellar in the extra periods needed to find a winner. However, no one expected this game to get to overtime after it seemed like Hellebuyck was doomed to another first-round exit.

As I was lamenting another summer of hearing how Connor Hellebuyck can't win the big game, I began tweeting about some of the history that Hellebuyck seemed destined to make before Namestnikov's and Perfetti's magic in the final two minutes of the game. There is no doubt that Connor Hellebuyck is one of the best netminders in the game, but his playoff record leaves something to be desired. That's where I began tweeting because he nearly became the outlier of a very exclusive club tonight.

Only three times since 1982, when the Vezina Trophy was first awarded to the league's best goaltender, have the three nominees in a single year not advanced past the first round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs. If you're doing the math, that's three times in 43 years of the Vezina being given to the top puck-stopper. Had Hellebuyck lost tonight, it would have been four times in 43 years as both Darcy Kuemper and Andrei Vasilevskiy had their seasons end already.

The three years where this phenomenon happened were:

• 2023 - Ullmark (BOS), Sorokin (NYI), Hellebuyck (WPG).
• 2010 - Miller (BUF), Bryzgalov (PHX), Brodeur (NJD).
• 1994 - Hasek (BUF), Vanbiesbrouck (FLA), Roy (MTL).

If you're reading that list, there are some goaltending legends who fell into these years where the best goaltending couldn't help his team escape the opening round, and that's what would have made Hellebuyck the outlier as he would have been the only goaltender to do it twice. When names like Hasek, Roy, and Brodeur are on that list, it's proof that even the best stoppers don't always win.

Of course, the Jets won tonight thanks to the Adam Lowry deflection in double-overtime to eliminate the Blues, and Hellebuyck ensures that at least one of this year's nominees will play in the second round. Had the Jets lost, Vasilevskiy would have joined the legends on that list, and Hellebuyck, as stated above, would be the first goalie to have that distinction twice. I'm not certain anyone wants to be part of this list, but I can almost guarantee it would irk Connor Hellebuyck something fierce if he was on it twice.

I had also tweeted that had the Jets lost tonight, they would have been the ninth Presidents' Trophy-winning team to be punted from the playoffs in the opening round. The eight teams that had lost in the opening round of the playoffs were the 2022-23 Boston Bruins, the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, the 2011-12 Vancouver Canucks, the 2009-10 Washington Capitals, the 2008-09 San Jose Sharks, the 2005-06 Detroit Red Wings, the 1999-00 St. Louis Blues, and the 1990-91 Chicago Blackhawks. Of those teams, only the Canucks, Blues, and Blackhawks had less points than the Jets did this season.

Of course, the last team to win the Presidents' Trophy and hoist the Stanley Cup were the 2012-13 Chicago Blackhawks who did so in a shortened season, and the last team to play a full season, win the Presidents' Trophy, and finish with a Stanley Cup parade were the 2007-08 Detroit Red Wings who finished with 115 points and a .701 points percentage. For comparison purposes, Winnipeg finished with 116 points this season for a .707 points percentage.

No one is planning parade routes in Winnipeg at this point after the Jets escaped a brutally physical series with the Blues, but perhaps that was the challenge the Jets needed to put them into a different mentality as they look forward to a series with the punishing Dallas Stars. If overtime was any indication, Connor Hellebuyck was laser-focused once again after struggling through most of this series, but we'll see how the Jets lineup against the Stars on Wednesday. As they say, nothing will be given. Everything will be earned.

It was a history-erasing night for the Winnipeg Jets and their goaltender as they avoided an early elimination. Four wins are in the books, twelve more are needed, and the Jets will look for a fifth win on Wednesday night against the Stars. No one will be looking to add his name to or keep his name out of the history books on that night when the Jets and Stars meet. It will strictly be about winning that first game and grabbing the early lead in the series!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

A Massive Thank You

Another week of Pledge-O-Rama at the UMFM offices has come and gone, and we are blown away once again at the support shown by UMFM listeners and supporters. We knew we had loyal listeners who are passionate about campus and community radio, but we owe everyone who helped out this week a major "thank you" for your contributons to our station. Without a doubt, UMFM listeners and supporters are the station's biggest strength, so thank you for your generous pledges during the Pledge-O-Rama week!

I can't write each one of you a "thank you" note for your contributions, but I hope the image to the left will suffice. Your support and contributions saw UMFM surpass the $39,000 mark this evening - some $7000 more than our intended goal! This money will now be set aside until the Board of Directors determines which major projects need to be tackled this year in terms of need and priority. In saying that, the extra money on top of the goal will give us some flexibility, and it may even let us cross a couple of other things off the "UMFM Major Projects" list. That's entire due to you, our listeners, so, once again, thank you for your support and generous pledges!

Here's where you can still take advantage of our appreciation for you: the Winnipeg Jets jersey we're giving away will be awarded on Thursday, May 8. That means that you still have time to contribute to UMFM's overall goal as The Hockey Show will keep the Pledge Goal for our show going! We realize that not everyone has the same pay days or access on the dates we're on the air, so we're extending the draw for the jersey until this week's show! We also realize that we only gave everyone two days - three if you read HBIC - to get yourself prepared for a pledge, so we want to give everyone a chance at winning this jersey. It's only fair if we extend the opportunity.

Once again, The Hockey Show likes to reward those who come through for our show, so we're extending the chance to win the jersey to the left - a size 58, team-issued Adizero Winnipeg Jets white jersey! This jersey is a beauty, and we'll be outfitting one of our generous listeners with some new threads! To do that, we will draw a winner from everyone who pledges to our show at the $25 level or above. The more you donate to UMFM, the better your chances will be to win the jersey. Here's how:

• $25 donation = 1 entry.
• $50 donation = 2 entries.
• $75 donation = 3 entries.
• $101.50 donation = 4 entries.
• $150+ donation = 5 entries.

You help the station with your donation, and we'll potentially put you in a Jets jersey. It's that easy, but you have to donate to UMFM and The Hockey Show for you to be entered. If you want to donate to multiple shows because you're a fan of great UMFM content, we certainly won't stop you. What will matter is the amount pledged to The Hockey Show with respect to draw entries.

For those who already pledged, you're entered into the draw. For those in Survivor: NHL Playoffs, you're getting your one free entry as well. For those who haven't pledged yet, this is your metaphorical third period. Get your pledges in now in order to qualify for the draw on Thursday which we will do live on the air on The Hockey Show. The draw will happen at 6pm on May 8, so make sure your pledges are in and recorded before the show starts at 5:30pm CT!

I can't promise that you'll be able to use the Jets jersey next week as they'll play Game Seven tomorrow night in a winner-takes-all game against the St. Louis Blues. I have faith that the Jets will hold the fort, but anything can happen in a Game Seven. Ask Steve Smith about what happened to the Oilers in 1986 in a Game Seven against Calgary. If you know the game, you know what I mean.

Thank you once more, UMFM listeners, for your amazing contributions to the station. We are always grateful for the support you've given the station in multiple forms - listening to the station, pledges, calls, and other interactions - and this past week gave us more reason to keep delivering excellent content from all our shows so that you're getting the best campus and community-based radio on the planet!

We couldn't do this without you, and we're proud that UMFM is powered by our phenomenal listeners! Thank you so much!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

More Southern Expansion

The ECHL announced today that they have reached an agreement for their 31st franchise that will begin play in 2026-27. We've seen the ECHL expand rapidly in recent years with franchises in Iowa, Trois-Rivières, Savannah, Bloomington, Tahoe, and Greensboro all being added since 2021. It seems like there's at least one announcement about expansion annually with the ECHL, and today was that day as they'll establish a franchise in Rio Rancho, New Mexico for the '26-27 season!

Before we start downplaying this announcement, one should know that Rio Rancho is a smaller city that sits just north of Albuquerque and about an hour south of Santa Fe on Highway 25. It has a relatively new arena in the Rio Rancho Events Center that was opened in 2006, and it seats 6000 fans for hockey as it once housed all of the NAHL's New Mexico Mustangs and the Central Hockey Leagues' New Mexico Scorpions. According to 2020 census numbers, Rio Rancho had a rapidly-growing population of 104,046 with forecasts aiming for 143,000 residents by 2040.

A growing city with an arena waiting for a tenant? That sounds like the right ingredients to make the ECHL listen to offers.

Rio Rancho has industries which will lead to a fanbase as Intel has a test facility there and Hewlett-Packard has a large office there while Bank of America has a significant presence with both branches and a call centre in the city. Just over 40% of the households in Rio Rancho have children with just under 60% of households being in that key demographic of 18-65 years of age. The median income for families is $52,233, so the ECHL will need to keep an eye on ticket and merchandise prices if they hope see this franchise flourish.

The CHL's New Mexico Scorpions started off strong in Albuquerque as they averaged more than 4000 people per game from 2001-05 despite missing the playoffs in three of four seasons. After pausing operations for the 2005-06 season, the '06-07 campaign after moving to Rio Rancho was the most successful for the Scorpions as they advanced to the Southern Conference Final against the Laredo Bucks, but they'd lose that series in five games. The move to Rio Rancho saw average attendance dip below 4000 fans per game, and the Scorpions never recovered as attendance continued to drop in the next two seasons before the CHL folded in 2009.

In terms of history, the Scorpions never boasted a lot of big-name talent during their days, but a few NHLers wrapped up their careers in New Mexico. Alek Stojanov played two seasons there at the end of his career from 1999-2001, Ryan VandenBussche spent nine games there in 2006-07, and goaltender Mike Minard - he of one game with the Edmonton Oilers - played 33 games in New Mexico in 2007-08. Former Sudbury Wolves forward Chris Robertson held the team's scoring record with 88 goals and 218 points in 186 games while another Ontario-born player in Chris MacDonald shares the all-time goal-scoring lead with Robertson at 88 goals in 181 games. Czech-born defender Vladimir Hartinger has the all-time penalty minute total at 389 minutes in the sin bin.

According to the announcement today, REV Entertainment's Sports Management division will oversee all team operations. This won't be REV Entertainment's first venture into professional sports as they are the official event partners of the Texas Rangers while operating the Cleburne Railroaders and Kane County Cougars of the American Association of Professional Baseball. They also were a managing partner for the ECHL's Allen Americans, and have worked with a number of leagues, venues, and organizations across the globe including the Dallas Stars who will serve as hockey operations consultants for REV Entertainment to get this team off the ground.

"REV has a proven track record of managing professional sports teams at the highest level, and we are thrilled with their commitment to bring professional hockey back to the state of New Mexico," ECHL Commissioner Ryan Crelin said in the announcement today. "This expansion speaks to the growth of our game throughout the continent, and will be an exciting addition to our rivalries in the Mountain Division, and a geographic fit for Affiliation development."

With the Dallas Stars being involved in this venture, I would expect them to likely move their affiliation from the Idaho Steelheads to this new New Mexico team once it begins play in 2026-27. It's a bit of a hike at 10.5 hours from Rio Rancho to Cedar Park, Texas where the AHL Texas Stars play, but it's a far shorter trip than the one players are required to make from Boise, Idaho. This could allow for Boise to affiliate themselves with a closer NHL partner rather than one that's 25 hours away - a full flight via a commercial airline away.

"We are incredibly excited to bring professional hockey back to New Mexico and to expand the ECHL's footprint with the league's 31st Member," REV Entertainment President Sean Decker said today. "The Rio Rancho community has a rich history with the sport, and we look forward to building a team that will be a source of pride for fans across the region. We can't wait to drop the puck in 2026!"

It appears that this New Mexico team is already moving quickly as well. The franchise has launched a "Name the Team" contest on their NMProHockey.com site, and the logo being used as a placeholder for now feels awfully Utah Hockey Club-like on the page. They will have a name, it seems, when the 2026-27 season starts unlike the Utah team, but a little conspiracy never hurt anyone when the Utah Hockey Club has their affiliation with the Allen Americans who, if you're drawing lines, was once operated by REV Entertainment.

As it stands, the only three NHL clubs without official NHL affiliates right now are the Carolina Hurricanes, Columbus Blue Jackets, and Ottawa Senators, so I'm sure we're going to see a carousel of affiliation changes over the next few seasons as teams streamline and re-align their affiliates to have players closer to one another in case of call-ups. With Rio Rancho joining the fray in 2026-27, the ECHL will be one team away from their goal of having one ECHL affiliate for each NHL franchise. And I'm sure we're not far from Team #32.

¡Bienvenido de nuevo al mundo del hockey, Nuevo México!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

The Hockey Show - Episode 658

The Hockey Show, Canada's only campus-produced radio show that strictly talks hockey, is changing the game tonight as we break the laws of time and space! Ok, we're not going to be that dramatic, but we are adding an extra thirty minutes of hockey talk tonight as The Hockey Show will run from 5:00-6:30pm on UMFM as part of the Pledge-O-Rama spectacular that's happening right now! What's that, you ask? Read on for details about this annual event as we'll do some chatting about hockey while trying to raise some capital for improvements tonight on The Hockey Show at 5:00pm CT!

I wrote a big article all about the 2025 edition of Pledge-O-Rama yesterday, but this is one of the most important times of the calendar year for UMFM as the station runs a week-long fundraiser to help pay for capital improvements. Among the many projects that we've completed using these funds were a tower replacement, the purchase of mobile units for off-site broadcasts, and upgrades to both the recording studio for live bands and the electrical room where servers and audio equipment operate to put UMFM on the air! In short, this is an important week in UMFM's annual operations!

Tonight, Teebz and Jason will be talking about Pledge-O-Rama a lot between hockey news and information, and it's our hope that we'll reach the station goal of $32,000 by this evening. As of noon on Thursday, the station had already raised $26,139.80 from our generous listeners and supporters, so we're not far away from hitting the target! We've never broken the total while The Hockey Show has been on the air, so could tonight be the night where that happens?

When it comes to hockey chatter tonight, Teebz and Jason will update everyone on the NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs and the Survivor: NHL Playoffs content, there are some ECHL Kelly Cup Playoff results to discuss, there was another PWHL expansion team announced, Utah made a pretty big blunder, the Hockey Canada trial presses on, there's some AIHL news in the air, new coaches were named in Canada West, and we'll tackle anything else that comes up in hockey. As always, it's a news-filled show with lots of Pledge-O-Rama goodness mixed in, so have your phone handy, make a pledge, and enjoy the chatter tonight on The Hockey Show at 5:00pm CT on one of 101.5 FM, Channel 718 on MTS TV, or via UMFM.com!

If you live outside Winnipeg and want to listen, we have ways! The new UMFM website's online streaming player works well if you want to listen online. We also recommend Radio Garden if you need an easy-to-use online stream. If you're more of an app person, we recommend you use the TuneIn app found on the App Store or Google Play Store. It's a solid app.

If you have questions, you can email all show queries and comments to hockeyshow@umfm.com! Tweet me anytime with questions you may have by hitting me up at @TeebzHBIC on Twitter! I'm here to listen to you, so make your voice heard! And because both Teebz and Jason are on the butterfly app where things are less noisy, you can find Teebz here and Jason here on Bluesky!

Tonight, Teebz and Jason will be looking for pledges while giving away a fantastic jersey and chatting about winning, losing, prizes, playoffs, expansion, logos, coaches, legal matters, Australian hockey, and much more exclusively on 101.5 UMFM and on the UMFM.com web stream!

PODCAST: May 1, 2025: Episode 658

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!