Tuesday, 20 October 2020

The 2011-12 Predictions

The 2011-12 NHL season was met with excitement in the Manitoba capital as the Winnipeg Jets returned to the NHL thanks to the sale of the Atlanta Thrashers franchise to a business group in Winnipeg led by Mark Chipman, marking the first relocation since 1997-98 when the Hurricanes moved to North Carolina from Hartford. The summer was also shaken to its core by three players who died with all being under the age of 40 as Derek Boogaard, Rick Rypien, and Wade Belak all committed suicide in a four-month span. On top of that, the NHL lost a number of former players and personalities when an airplane carrying the Lokomotiv Yaroslavl team crashed, resulting in the deaths of 44 of 45 people onboard the plane. Four teams - the Rangers, Kings, Sabres, and Ducks - would start their seasons in Europe while Philadelphia and the Rangers met on January 1 for the Winter Classic at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia. And, of course, The Hockey News was back with their annual Yearbook and annual predictions for the 2011-12 season!

So the Winnipeg Jets come back after having been gone for the better part of two decades, and THN decides to run their fourth Jarome Iginla cover? Oh, the Jets get a tiny mention at the top of the cover, but Iginla is the cover player again? The Flames, it should be noted, hadn't caught fire in any of the previous four seasons - 10th, 10th, 5th, and 7th in the Western Conference - and this season would be more of the same disappointment in Cowtown. At least there would have been a good cover story with the Jets rather than dragging out the same tired Calgary Flames narrative with Jarome Iginla - apparently, the only player to ever wear a Flames uniform - on the front.

The Hockey News continues its standings predictions this year, so we'll examine and score these predictions as we have before. After an impressive 39.6% accuracy on their predictions one year earlier, THN has a lofty bar to try and match this season.

Here are the standings predictions as per The Hockey News.
As you can see, THN split their predictions into conferences this year. Click on the picture if you'd like to view it at a larger size.

STANDINGS

I'll award one point for every team correctly predicted as to their final conference standing. I'll also award one point for every correctly-predicted playoff team in the right standing, and 0.5 points for a playoff team not in the correct standings spot. I'll continue to award up to three points for the division winners as well. That's a potential total of 15 points for the standings, another 3 points for divisions winners, and 8 points for the playoff teams for a total of 26 points per conference in this section.

The final Eastern Conference standings in 2012 in the NHL are listed first with The Hockey News' predicted team to finish in that same spot listed second.
      1. New York Rangers (NHL) vs. Washington (THN)
      2. Boston vs. Pittsburgh
      3. Florida vs. Boston
      4. Pittsburgh vs. Philadelphia
      5. Philadelphia vs. Buffalo
      6. New Jersey vs. Tampa Bay
      7. Washington vs. New York Rangers
      8. Ottawa vs. Montreal
      9. Buffalo vs. Carolina
      10. Tampa Bay vs. Toronto
      11. Winnipeg vs. New Jersey
      12. Carolina vs. New York Islanders
      13. Toronto vs. Winnipeg
      14. New York Islanders vs. Florida
      15. Montreal vs. Ottawa
After a season where they hit right on one-third of the teams in the standings, THN took major steps backwards. They had zero teams finishing in the right spot in the standings for 0 points on the standings board. They scored just Boston as a division winner for a 1/3 score. They had no teams in the right spots for playoff spots, but they had five of the eight teams correctly making the playoffs for 2.5 points (5 x 0.5). All totaled, The Hockey News scored a measly 3.5/26 points for the Eastern Conference.

The Western Conference follows the same listing and scoring for 26 possible points.
      1. Vancouver (NHL) vs. Vancouver (THN)
      2. St. Louis vs. San Jose
      3. Phoenix vs. Chicago
      4. Nashville vs. Los Angeles
      5. Detroit vs. Detroit
      6. Chicago vs. Anaheim
      7. San Jose vs. St. Louis
      8. Los Angeles vs. Nashville
      9. Calgary vs. Colorado
      10. Dallas vs. Calgary
      11. Colorado vs. Minnesota
      12. Minnesota vs. Columbus
      13. Anaheim vs. Dallas
      14. Edmonton vs. Phoenix
      15. Columbus vs. Edmonton
The Western Conference saw THN get better in the standings predictions, but not by much. They scored 2 points for having Vancouver and Detroit in the right standings spots. They had Vancouver as a correctly-predicted divison winner for 1/3 points. And then they also added 2 more points for having the right seeds for Vancouver and Detroit while adding 2.5 points for only having five of the six teams remaining (5 x 0.5) making the playoffs for 4.5 total points there. The final total for the Western Conference was 7.5/26 in 2012!

STANLEY CUP WINNER

Ken Campbell was back to handle the byline on the predictions, and he had the magazine putting all its eggs in the baskets of two teams as they predicted by the Stanley Cup champion and the finalist. Let's see how that went for The Hockey News this year.
  • WASHINGTON CAPITALS WILL DEFEAT THE CHICAGO BLACKHAWKS TO WIN THE STANLEY CUP. Except they didn't as the 2012 Los Angeles Kings eliminated the New Jersey Devils in six games to win the Stanley Cup. Washington, for what it's worth, lost to the New York Rangers in the second round of the playoffs in seven games after needing all seven games to upset Boston in the opening round as the seventh seed. Chicago, meanwhile, spent six games in the playoffs, losing to the third-seeded Phoenix Coyotes in six games to end their run.
THN scored 0/2 in these predictions, and didn't even come close to having a finalist as they had predicted in each of the previous three years.

The Hockey News fell off a cliff with their predictions this season as they scored just 11 out of 54 possible points for a major drop to 20.4% accuracy. You would have doubled your losses in Vegas if you bet on the Stanley Cup champion and finalist predictions, so let's just stop betting altogether when relying on their predictions at this point.

We'll see how future seasons play out with these predictions and if THN can continue improve next season as we move forward chronologically!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!

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