The Rundown - Week 5
Power-Play Defences
Every year, we often talk about how special teams can make or break a team's success in Canada West hockey. There's no denying that scoring on the power-play while denying the opposition the same luxury will result in greater chances of winning, but we're overlooking a major component of special teams play which has historically determined which teams make or miss the playoffs: shorthanded goals.Now, this isn't as simple as pointing at the total and saying, "They're the worst" and that's that. What I did was I went back to 2014-15 and took a look at the plus-minus of power-plays - total PPG minus total SHG - to determine how much of an effect shorthanded goals have on the overall standings. In theory, they happen so rarely that one wouldn't think they have much of an impact, right?
Let's lay the groundwork first, though, and implore teams to improve their power-plays if they want to improve their standings. Only once has the team with the worst power-play efficiency made the playoffs, and that was the 2017-18 Saskatchewan Huskies whose efficiency was a baffling 7.1% as they scored just seven power-play goals all season. Our first guideline for special teams: don't finish last in power-play efficiency.
The second guideline seems pretty obvious, but it needs to be pointed out. If you allow teams to score shorthanded goals against you, there's a very good chance you'll lose games since you're now having to erase that deficit. Only once since 2014-15 has the team who allowed the most shorthanded goals-against in a season made the playoffs, and that team was the 2019-20 Regina Cougars who allowed three shorties that season. Every other season since '14-15 has seen the team with the most shorties scored against it miss the the playoffs. Our second guideline for special teams: don't let teams score against you while on the advantage.
Our third and final guideline is very simple: don't combine Guideline #1 and Guideline #2. If you're going to be terrible at special teams, try to be bad at only one thing. The easiest way to determine this is to use a goals-for versus goals-against comparison in a plus/minus form. If a team scores on the power-play, they get a +1. Conversely, if they allow a shorthanded goal, they get a -1. Generally speaking, the higher the number is for the special teams plus/minus, the better chances one has to make the playoffs.
So why do I bring this up? Manitoba is a woeful 9.7% on the power-play, has surrendered three shorthanded goals this season, and is sitting with a plus/minus of zero. Manitoba missed the playoffs in 2019-20 while sporting an 8.7% power-play efficiency, but they allowed two shorthanded goals, and finished the season at a +8 in the special teams plus/minus. That was marginally better than Lethbridge, who also missed the playoffs, but marginally worse than Mount Royal who made the playoffs.
In every year since 2014-15 outside of Saskatchewan's astounding 2017-18 results, the team with the worst power-play efficiency missed the playoffs. In every year since 2014-15 outside of Regina's three gifts in 2019-20, the team who allowed the most shorthanded goals missed the playoffs. Which guideline holds more weight if comparing the two? The answer might be surprising, but power-play efficiency doesn't mean as much as goals-in-hand, and shorthanded goals-against are a better predictor at teams that may miss the playoffs or come dangerously close to missing the playoffs.
This year's three candidates after a month of play are the Saskatchewan Huskies (5.6% and one SHGA), Trinity Western (8.3% and one SHGA), and Manitoba (9.7% and 3 SHGA), but it's still early enough that any power-play success seen in the remainder of the season will reverse course in a hurry for these teams, and we do know that scoring at even-strength takes a lot of pressure off the special teams. However, a good power-play will benefit teams through the season and beyond as games can be won and lost through special teams play.
Hold On A Second
Before we get too carried away with eight games of knowledge this season, it would be important to point out that we're seeing Canada West shift in a direction that wasn't as evident three or four years ago. We've always seen good players out on the penalty-killing units for teams, specifically if they were strong defensively as well, but we're starting to see a shift in philosophy as teams adapt their penalty-killing systems to find scoring opportunities while playing shorthanded!The Calgary Dinos might be the best example of this adaptation with their new head coach, Carla MacLeod, opting to play a diamond formation as opposed to the box formations we've traditionally seen in Canada West. By playing the diamond, Carla's squad has already scored three shorthanded goals this season by forcing turnovers at the blueline where the traditional top of the umbrella power-play formation has played. Rachel Paul's speed and skill at the top burned the Bisons twice in the opening weekend, and Holly Reuther's speed and skill helped her outwork the Mount Royal Cougars to notch her shorthanded marker.
This reminds me of an article that Greg Wyshynski wrote back in 2017 about why goal-scoring was up in the NHL. In his list, shorthanded goals were way up, and he wrote an assessment which we're seeing more and more in Canada West that reads,
"The trends for teams with the man advantage are for boom-or-bust lineups: Roll four forwards out there, or play a formation that has one player at the point, and it increases the chances that the power play will score or be scored on. Especially when penalty-killing units have become so aggressive in recent years, with pressure on the point shooters."Some teams still opt to roll out three forwards and two defenders, but the part about the "one player at the point" is all too common in Canada West in terms of power-play formations.
Beyond that, we're seeing good offensive players killing penalties more often now than ever before. There was a time where a team's checking players went to work on the penalty kill as they were trusted to shut down offensive players, but we've seen the likes of Lauryn Keen, Autumn MacDougall, Anna Purschke, Sasha Lutz, Alanna Sharman, and Iya Gavrilova all lead or be near the top of the shorthanded goal-scoring lead.
In that vein, 2014-15 was the last time that Canada West teams collectively scored less than ten shorthanded goals in a season. Shorthanded goal frequency went from 0.03125 per game in '14-15 (one every 30 games) to a high of 0.07589 in '18-19 (one every 13 games). And while it dropped back to 0.04910 last season (one every 20 games), we've already seen seven shorthanded markers scored in 66 games this season (0.1061 or one every nine games). In other words, the defensive adaptations being made that sees more offensively-gifted players used, specifically at the top of the penalty-killing scheme to pressure the top of the power-play, is resulting in more shorthanded goals.
There is a catch, however, and this catch is why power-play success is vital if a team is going to be aggressive while killing penalties. Since 2014-15, the team who has scored the most shorthanded goals each season has never finished with the best power-play efficiency, but has never missed the playoffs either. It should also be pointed out that if a team is going to be aggressive while killing penalties, no team that has led the conference in shorthanded markers has ever had the best penalty-killing efficiency, but they've also never been the worst in the conference. And unless Calgary continues its trend this season, the team who has led in shorthanded goals has never given up the most power-play goals in a season.
In other words, it pays to be aggressive while killing penalties. Yes, teams may give up a few power-play goals because of that aggressive play, but the overall effect is that teams who are aggressive while killing penalties not only score shorthanded goals, but they make the playoffs. If teams continue to put proven scorers out to kill penalties and tell them to play aggressively, good things will happen for your team.
If you want the synopsis for the last fifteen paragraphs because you didn't come for a conditional math lesson, the lessons learned are score when you have the power-play, don't give up shorthanded goals, don't do the opposite of those two things, and play aggressively while shorthanded to improve one's odds of making the playoffs. Teams that do that are seeing more success than not, so why not follow the trend on this one?
Ontario Looks Different
As I was ranting about the Elo System used to devise the U SPORTS Women's Hockey Top Ten last week both on this blog and on The Hockey Show, the OUA decided that it was time to start showing its hand when it comes to scheduling and who's who when it comes to standings.I struggled to understand how Toronto got its fourth-overall ranking after defeating Ontario Tech twice when Ontario Tech would struggle to defeat most teams in the OUA, let alone any other conference. Nipissing, who is ranked tenth, defeated Queen's twice to move into the Top Ten, and I stated on The Hockey Show that I believed Nipissing to be a better team than their ranking. Well, lo and behold, Nipissing is now 4-0-0 on the season after defeating the York Lions 6-0 and 4-0 this weekend while Toronto defeated Queen's on Friday before losing in a shootout on Saturday.
I'll keep harping on this, but with Toronto meeting Ryerson next Friday before Ryerson meets Nipissing on Wednesday, November 24 and Saturday, November 27, we should have a much better picture of who the teams to beat are in the OUA after one month of play. Ryerson was off this week, so I'm fine if they're still slotted in as the seventh-ranked team in the nation, but Toronto better fall hard and fast while Nipissing jumps up and ahead of the Varsity Blues as they currently lead the OUA East. It's unlikely to happen, but this is another shining example of why the Elo System is flawed entirely.
Beyond that, I mentioned on The Hockey Show that Waterloo should be ranked based on their play as well, and Waterloo only confirmed that belief as they added a pair of wins over the Guelph Gryphons this past week to move to 4-0-0 on the season as well. Waterloo will be tested on November 26 and 27 as they have a home-and-home with the Western Mustangs as their next games, but let's move the idle Ryerson Rams off the Top Ten for teams that have actually played four games this season.
Contenders Or Pretenders?
I mentioned on The Hockey Show when discussing the Elo System that StFX's ranking made no sense whatsoever with UNB having a better record than StFX despite StFx being ranked higher nationally. Perhaps we can put StFX in its rightful spot in that they're nowhere close to Saint Mary's or UNB as the Varsity Reds made a statement with a 2-0 victory over StFX on Saturday as Kendra Woodland stopped all 33 shots fired her way for UNB for her eighth win of the campaign. With the win, UNB improved to 10-1-1 on the season while StFX fell to 8-4.Yes, StFX rallied to beat UPEI 3-2 on Sunday to move ahead of the Panthers in the standings based solely on regulation wins, but the two teams are still tied with 16 points apiece and the season series sits at 1-1 with both teams scoring six goals. I hate to say it, but if StFX isn't sitting as the ninth- or tenth-ranked team this week, the Elo System once again shows it flaws as I personally feel that they shouldn't be ranked if UPEI isn't ranked since they are literally neck-and-neck on the season in all standings categories that matter.
We'll see if StFX is a true contender for the AUS banner this year when they meet the 10-1-1 Saint Mary's Huskies on Sunday, November 21 as they seek to avenge the 4-2 loss that the Huskies hung on them on October 30. If they lose next Sunday, StFX better not appear on the Top Ten again unless they can defeat one of Saint Mary's or UNB convincingly because I'm not convinced they're even close to being the tenth-best team in Canada, let alone the fifth-best team.
The Same Ol' Group
Every year in the RSEQ, there are three teams who emerge as the better teams - McGill, Concordia, and Montreal. This season, though, Montreal got off to a rougher start than normal as they were the first RSEQ team that the Bishop's Gaiters defeated in the regular season back on October 31 as Gabrielle Rousseau's second goal of the game was scored at 9:58 of third period on the power-play, and stood as the game-winner in the 4-3 win for the Gaiters!The University of Ottawa Gee-Gees handed Concordia a loss on opening night of the RSEQ season in a bit of a surprise before McGill made it an 0-2 start of the season with their win over the Stingers on Halloween. Needless to say, it appeared after one weekend of play that the balance of power in the RSEQ may be shifting.
Of course, this is why we shouldn't be ranking teams who have played just two teams because McGill is still storming through the RSEQ at 6-0-0 while Concordia has bounced back with a 3-2-1 record to sit in second-place. Ottawa is still playing well as they hold a 3-3-0 record while they try to fend off a surging Montreal team who are 2-3-1 that saw them drop an overtime loss to McGill in their most recent game.
By the beginning of December, I'd expect to see these three teams back in their usual 1-2-3 positions in the conference as Concordia and Montreal will look to hold the other off when it comes to closing out the first half of the season in second-place. McGill definitely is the class of the RSEQ, but you begin to question the strength of the conference when you see a team like Bishop's upset Montreal or a Carleton upset an Ottawa.
We should know more after these teams play next weekend as the Marlets will play the Stingers on Friday before squaring off with Ottawa on Sunday. If McGill can make it through those games without a loss, we unquestionably know who the favorite is in the RSEQ.
Olympic Dreams - Part 1
I mentioned that we'd discuss a rookie from Calgary here, and this is where it will happen because goaltender Ella Howard was busy the week before Canada West hockey action began. Rather than being in camp for the Dinos, Howard was in Nottingham, England where she was suiting up for Team Great Britain in one of the Olympic Pre-Qualifying Tournaments!Without further adieu, here's the piece we ran on the Bisons Canada West TV broadcast on opening weekend as the Calgary Dinos and Ella Howard were in town to play the Bisons! We were lucky enough to see Ella play in Calgary's Sunday loss to the Bisons where she started the third period for the Dinos. She went six-for-six in stops, and she looked like she was comfortable in the Calgary net. That's always good to see, but perhaps we shouldn't be surprised after we saw her stare down some of the best international players on the planet one week earlier!
It's still pretty cool to have an Olympic-calibre netminder in Canada West, and here's hoping we get to see a lot of Ella Howard stopping pucks for the Dinos in the future!
Olympic Dreams - Part 2
Things didn't get off to a good start for Norway as the Czechs downed the Nordic women by a 3-1 score on November 11. Neither Bergesen nor Fischer factored into the scoring in this one, so Norway needed a big bounce-back game if they wanted any hope for an Olympic berth.
Hungary showed why they were a strong candidate to earn a berth in the Olympics as they scored at the midway point of the period to tie the game before they pulled ahead with five minutes to play. A late empty-net goal for the Hungarians would ice the 5-3 victory for them, and the final game between Norway and Poland would simply be for standings as opposed to having ramifications on Olympic berths.
Norway would easily handle Poland by a 7-1 score as Mathea Fischer scored a hat trick and added a helper in this one. Fischer would finish the tournament as the top goal-scorer with five while having six points, and was named Player of the Game in both the game against Hungary and against Poland. Emma Bergesen was a +1 for the tournament with four shots on net, but she recorded no points.
While it's unfortunate for them, Norway will not qualify for the Olympics in 2022. Bergesen will return to Calgary where she'll still be a dependable part of the Mount Royal Cougars' blue line as they seek a U SPORTS National Championship berth once again this year. As for Fischer, she'll return to SDE in the SDHL and see if she can help them chase down a Swedish championship!
The Last Word
U SPORTS, as the overseeing body that keeps hockey in order at the university level, needs to establish a uniformity in awarding points in conferences for all conferences. As it stands, Canada West is on a two-point system just as the RSEQ and AUS are, but the OUA is on the three-point system. I rarely ever say this anywhere, but the OUA is doing it right just as Canada West did it right in 2019-20 before shifting back to the ludicrous two-point system this season.As it stands, here's Canada West's current standings board, but I changed a couple of columns to reflect the three-point system that makes regulation wins worth more since they're one of the tie-breakers used.
| School | Record | Points | 3pts | 3pt Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mount Royal | 5-1-1-1 | 13 | 18 | 1st |
| Manitoba | 5-2-1-0 | 12 | 17 | 2nd |
| Alberta | 1-1-3-1 | 9 | 10 | 5th |
| UBC | 4-2-0-0 | 8 | 12 | 3rd |
| Saskatchewan | 3-1-0-2 | 8 | 11 | 4th |
| Calgary | 3-5-0-0 | 6 | 9 | 6th |
| MacEwan | 3-5-0-0 | 6 | 9 | 7th |
| Regina | 2-4-0-2 | 6 | 8 | 8th |
| Trinity Western | 0-5-1-0 | 2 | 2 | 9th |
Why is this an important distinction? Alberta has clearly benefitted from winning in extra time to the tune that they're two spots higher in the standings because wins that require 64 minutes are worth the same as wins completed in 60 minutes. There's a three-point "deadline", so to speak, at the 60-minute mark, and teams that win in regulation should be rewarded for completing the job in the time allowed. Since we already split the two points when both teams go to extra time, why do we award a charity point for doing what should have been done in 60 minutes?
That five-point gap between Manitoba and UBC means that UBC has to win in regulation if they want to overtake Manitoba in the standings whereas the two-point system allows them to win of any kind just to tie Manitoba in the standings. Alberta, who currently sits in third, would need two regulation wins just to close the gap between themselves and Manitoba to one point, and that's the bonus that Manitoba earned for winning so many games in regulation.
U SPORTS should step in and make the three-point system the standard for all conferences so we get true and accurate pictures about teams that win in regulation when it comes to making the Top Ten rankings more accurate. Winning is great, but winning in regulation time is better. Let's fix the points system across Canada before the Elo System makes it infinitely worse with its ridiculous evaluations because we all know that a 4-2-0-0 team is better than a 1-1-3-1 team based on records alone.
Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!
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