Adjusted Power-Play Numbers

I've seen a few season Canada West women's hockey season previews this week where the writer and/or publication has written stats down from last season, and one of those statistics that everyone seems to rely upon is power-play conversion rates. While it's true that special teams play a large part in every Canada West women's hockey game due to how tightly contested the games are, there needs to be a better way to determine which teams' power-plays actually provide an advantage. If you give up goals while holding a player advantage, that's not much of an advantage, right? Let's take a quick look at the adjusted power-play numbers from last season!

Here are the power-play numbers from last season in Canada West.

CANADA WEST WOMEN'S HOCKEY PP NUMBERS

School	PP%	Goals	Opp.	SHGA	Adj. PP%
Alberta	23.9	33	138	2	22.5
UBC	23.6	30	127	0	23.6
Manitoba	17.1	21	123	6	12.2
Mount Royal	15.8	19	120	2	14.2
Saskatchewan	13.6	17	125	2	12.0
Trinity Western	13.3	12	90	1	12.2
Regina	11.3	15	133	2	9.8
Calgary	10.5	11	105	2	8.6
MacEwan	6.5	8	123	1	5.7

As you can see, the adjusted power-play rates tell a different story when it comes to who used their power-play time effectively last season. The simple calculation is to subtract the shorthanded goals allowed by each team from the total power-play goals scored, and divide by the same number of opportunities. After all, teams can't score power-play goals unless they're on the power-play, and teams can't score shorthanded goals unless they're killing a penalty. If a team surrenders a shorthanded goal, the maximum number of power-play goals that can be scored to erase that goal against is one, and then the penalty is over (unless it's a major, but those are few and far between). Giving up that shorthanded goal? Well, that power-play essentially is neutralized.

As stated above, special teams in Canada West can literally win games for teams, so getting a boost from special teams always helps. That means effectively killing penalties, but it also means taking advantage of power-plays when they're awarded. Let's break this down in easier terms than numbers and math.

If you look at the adjusted power-play rates of UBC and Alberta, you can see that they're above 20% so they're scoring better than once for every five advantages that they receive. The Pandas had 4.92 power-play opportunities per game last season on average while the Thunderbirds had 4.53 opportunities per game on average, so they were scoring nearly one power-play goal per game all season long in games where they received four power-play opportunities. That's a huge advantage, and that might explain why they finished atop the standings last season when looking at the other conversion rates.

Mount Royal, who had the third-highest adjusted power-play conversion rate, scored once for every seven power-play opportunities after negating the power-play goals wiped out by the shorthanded goals they surrendered. If teams are going to be successful in Canada West, they have to take advantage of the advantages they're awarded. If they don't, it makes life much harder when it comes to making the playoffs.

Don't believe me? Take a look at the difference between the adjusted power-play rate for the Fluffy Cows compared to their actual rate. They dropped 4.9% in terms of their success because they couldn't stop teams from scoring while they had the extra player, and they ended up tied with the same adjusted power-play rate as sixth-place Trinity Western. Guess which two teams battled down the stretch for the final playoff spot?

In 2021-22, UBC and Mount Royal had the top-two power-play conversion rates in terms of both goals scored and adjusted power-plays as both finished above 20%, and they were first- and second-place in the conference. In 2019-20, Alberta and Calgary finished with the best power-play numbers and the best adjusted numbers as both finished above 20%, and they were the top-two teams in the standings that season.

I'm not saying this is any sort of trend, but finishing above 20% on the adjusted power-play success rate seems to be a good way to finish at or near the top of the standings in Canada West. At the very worst, it nearly guarantees that teams will make the playoffs because they essentially score a goal per game thanks to their power-play, meaning the opposition has to score two goals at the very minimum to have a chance at winning.

There are some years that don't follow the trend, but the 20% mark might be the key number. 2018-19 saw Manitoba finish with an 18.8% adjusted power-play rate, and they were second-place that season. Alberta, who finished atop the standings, had the fifth-best adjusted success rate at 14.2%, and Regina, who finished in sixth-place, finished second in adjusted power-play rate at 15.4%.

It seems likely that it's not a trend, but maybe more of a general observation that teams who have successful power-plays normally have successful seasons which should come as no surprise to anyone. One truth found in the numbers, though, is that any team who has finished above 20% in adjusted power-play rate has never missed the playoffs in Canada West. Maybe bookmark that fact?

Which teams will have worked on their special teams in the preseason? We may find out this weekend as games get underway on Friday night for the 2023-24 Canada West season! It's honestly on every coach to ensure that their special teams find success because those powrr-play opportunities that are awarded are literally chances to bury teams. Shrugging them off could be the difference of watching the playoffs in February on TV and actually playing in them.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!