Bigger, But Not Better

With the NHL already pushing a 33rd team in Houston and Wednesday's news that an NHL-sized rink will be built in Atlanta, those two locations will be the next NHL cities regardless of who likes it and who doesn't. Those two television markets are ones that the NHL has coveted for a long time, and we're already seen one Gary Bettman-led expansion in Atlanta fail under his watch. The NHL has a balanced schedule with four eight-team divisions that work well when it comes to playoffs and drafting, so adding two more teams before Bettman walks away into retirement is nothing more than a final "look what I did" moment for a league desperately seeking ways to find new revenue streams.

I wwant to be clear that I'm not against expansion if there is a demand for it and if the cost of expansion makes sense. For all the success that teams like the Vegas Golden Knights and San Jose Sharks have had both on the ice and in merchandise sales, there are teams like the Columbus Blue Jackets and Atlanta Thrashers who joined the league and struggled in their markets after a few years of play. With players now earning eight-figure salaries annually, the need to expand has never been lower despite Gary Bettman's thoughts.

With the Canadian dollar sinking against the US dollar, the seven Canadian NHL teams are entering the same kind of economic territory as they did in the 1990s when both the Quebec Nordiques and Winnipeg Jets moved while all of Edmonton, Calgary, and Ottawa were rumoured to be mere hours from having new homes. While Bettman will sing about parity until cows come home, the fact that seven of his teams spend $1.40 for every $1 USD they spend doesn't allow for parity in the pocketbooks. There's no immediate nor easy fix to this problem aside from more revenue sharing from US teams to Canadian ones, so expanding while this is happening is a bad idea.

Secondly, with the product on the ice being as good as it is, expanding again before Seattle makes itself a regular playoff participant and before Detroit makes the playoffs again seems foolhardy. The NHL desperately needs some of its pillar franchises - Detroit, Chicago, New York Rangers, and Toronto - to find their way back to the postseason if they want people to remain interested. Yes, they averaged 5.2 million viewers for the 2026 Stanley Cup Final, but that's miniscule compared to the 2026 NBA Finals that saw an average of 20.6 million viewers tune in and watch. New York is a huge market!

It seems that the Friedkin Group, led by billionaire Dan Friedkin, is willing to pay the $2 billion USD expansion fee, though, so Houston looks like it's nearly ready to be announced outside of some legalities and paperwork to be completed. With a 33rd franchise all but announced at this point, the league will want to balance that out with a 34th team joining them shortly and Atlanta fits that mold.

Atlanta has proven itself to be anything but a lock when it comes to success, especially considering that both of Atlanta's franchises are now playing in Canada. Both the Atlanta Flames and the Atlanta Thrashers failed miserably in their eight- and twelve-year existences, respectfully, thanks to financial problems, abysmal marketing, poor on-ice performance, internal ownership squabbles, and arena issues.

The Thrashers averaged 17.206 fans in their inaugural season in 1999-2000, but only hit 16,000 once more in their twelve years in 2006-07 when they won the Southeast Division. They had as many seasons where they averaged just 13,000 fans as they did when they averaged 15,000 fans. Selling hockey in Atlanta is not an easy job unless they win, and expansion teams that don't win often don't fill rinks. Ask the Florida Panthers how long it took them to figure that out.

The issue that both these cities also face are immediate competition from both the NBA and the NFL. The Atlanta Hawks were the sixth-best team in the NBA's Eastern Conference this season while the Houston Rockets were the fift-best team in the NBA's Western Conference. Both teams look to be competitive this season again, so it might be tough to lure fans away from the NBA teams in Atlanta and Houston. On top of that, the Texans were 12-5 last season while the Falcons were 8-9, and both NFL teams draw huge crowds. Is the NHL actually ready to enter those markets and compete for fans?

Las Vegas was an easy sell as the first professional team of the four major leagues to move into Sin City. Seattle found out that they have to work extremely hard to get people to show up and watch a middling team. Houston and Atlanta will face similar challenges unless they can build a winner like the Golden Knights did in their inaugural year. That simply won't happen after NHL GMs learned from that Vegas expansion, so Houston and Atlanta will likely struggle.

With the two new cities being added to their roster, the NHL will officially be the largest of the four major professional sports leagues in North America. Being bigger, however, doesn't mean they're going to be any better than the other three, and there likely won't be the immediate payoff that the NHL hopes to see outside of the ludicrous expansion fees that both will pay. Why would anyone pay $2 billion for a team where a fanbase isn't guaranteed and a winner isn't likely?

It's not my money, though, so who am I to question billionaires on how they want to burn their money? Sure, they could do incredible things like feed the hungry, house the homeless, or cut medical costs for the ill with that $2 billion fee, but I guess these billionaires would rather invest in a sports team that, no matter what, seems to only increase in value. If a billionaire gets richer, it's gotta be worth it!

Isn't professional sports fun when all that matters is money?

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!