NHL Points Leader

If I asked you right now who was leading the NHL in points, you'd likely give me thr usual list of suspects: McDavid, Crosby, MacKinnon. While none of those guys are doing poorly to start this season by any means, the right answer wouldn't be aname you'd likely come up with if I gave you 100 chances. Washington Capitals defenceman John Carlson is currently out in front of all players as he racks up points from the Washington blue line this season. And yes, you're allowed to be surprised by that because it's not like Carlson has ever looked like the second Bobby Orr or Paul Coffey in his career. In fact, some pundits ripped the Capitals for their large financial commitment to the defenceman in the off-season, but it seems they knew something we didn't: John Carlson has the skills to lead the NHL in scoring!

Compared to other defencemen who have big-money contracts such as PK Subban, Drew Doughty, and Brent Burns, he has the same number of points this season as those defenders COMBINED. If that makes you shake your head, consider that he's ten points better than next highest-scoring defender in the league! So what changed for John Carlson that makes him heads-and-shoulders better this season than any season he's had thus far in the NHL?

It's not like Carlson has even not scored in the NHL. His 57 assists and 70 points last season were both career highs for the rearguard, but his explosion out of the gates this season has people comparing him to Orr and Coffey thanks to his 18-point start as those are the only other defenders in NHL history to score 18 points in their first ten games of the season. He's already being floated as a Norris Trophy candidate by teammate Alexander Ovechkin. Did he change his off-season training? Has he found some magical potion that has allowed him to slow down the game?

"Just getting lucky I think," Carlson told Joel Colomby of the Vancouver Sun. "Guys are making some good plays to me, and the guys I'm passing to are scoring right now."

The key word in that entire explanation is "now". There is no way that Carlson can continue his torrid scoring pace all season long. As an example, Bobby Orr holds the record for defencemen with 1.78 points-per-game in 1970-71; Carlson is currently sitting at 1.82. But assuming that he reverts to his previous 70-in-82 pace, he likely will lead all defencemen in scoring this season. It won't be a 100-point season, but it will be one of the best totals since the turn of the millennium.

Where Carlson needs to be mindful is on the defensive side of the puck if he hopes to stand in front of his peers on the stage in Las Vegas while accepting the Norris Trophy this spring. Washington has changed their system this season, and it seems they may be surrendering more goals and offensive chances than they had in the past under former head coach Barry Trotz. While this is giving Carlson more offensive freedom, it's also resulted in seeing goaltender Braden Holtby's goals-against average balloon to 3.64 and his save percentage plummet to .886 in nine games. Those are Holtby's worst stats since entering the league, and they are reflective of the defensive problems seen with the Capitals through this opening month of hockey.

Why is this important? The Hockey News' Jared Clinton makes a compelling case that defence does, in fact, matter when it comes to Norris Trophy voting. In his article yesterday, he wrote,

"Already a one-time winner, having captured the award in 2010-11, Karlsson led the league with 74 points, putting him 13 points ahead of Norris winner Duncan Keith, 34 points ahead of second-place Chara and 28 points clear of third-place Weber. Karlsson didn't receive so much as a single first-place vote and only five second-place nods.

"The knock against Karlsson, of course, was that he wasn't an impact player defensively. That while he put up points, his own-zone ability was questionable. And it's important to note that was the argument against the then-Ottawa Senators defenseman winning the Norris because it's the same case that has been made against Carlson in recent years."

Clearly, having the Capital post some rather awful defensive stats through the opening month of the season won't help Carlson's advanced stats numbers which, as Clinton points out, haven't really separated him from the pack.

"Over the past two seasons, Carlson's 5-on-5 Corsi, shots, expected goals and scoring chance rates haven't been among the class of the league, and combining the two campaigns, he's either right at or below 50 percent in those categories. For what it's worth, his talent and the level of talent around him has his actual goals for percentage at a near league-best 56.6 percent among defenders with 2,000 minutes played at 5-on-5."

It's clear that the first month of action that Carlson's offensive advanced stats are better than they were in the past, but Washington has to improve defensively. There's no way that Washington can replicate the offensive output of the Oilers of the 1980s, so they'll have to find some sort of happy medium between their offence thus far and some sort of reliable defence if they hope to have Carlson bring home the Norris Trophy this season. Carlson may be putting up numbers we haven't seen in decades, but fans in Washington haven't seen this many goals-against in quite some time.

As a former defenceman myself, it is exciting to see a player like John Carlson out in front of so many incredible players when scrolling down the scoring leaders. While it may not last, John Carlson is having himself a heckuva season and is certainly worth every penny the Capitals committed to him.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!