Seth Jones: Leaf Killer?

While there was some chatter on both The Hockey Show and by other hockey prognosticators about how good the goaltending may have to be for the Columbus Blue Jackets in their series against the Toronto Maple Leafs, I know I may have overlooked the strength of the two pillars that Columbus boasts on their back end in Zach Werenski and, in particular, Seth Jones. Jones' performance against the Leafs tonight was something of which Denis Potvin or Larry Robinson would be proud in that he completely shut down the Leafs' weapons while still playing an effective offensive game. Jones might be the best defender in the NHL who has been overlooked for a while outside the city of Columbus, Ohio.

While his advanced stats say that Jones shouldn't be in the top-five discussion for best defencemen in the NHL right now, it's hard not to see him included in the discussion when one considers how good he can be on a nightly basis based on the eye test. The key for Jones, like most young players, is consistency when it comes to his game, and that has to improve to a level that Jones simply isn't at right now. Being a young player, though, means he can still improve that aspect of his game.

However, consider the fact that in last season's playoff run by the Blue Jackets, the Bruins moved David Pastrnak off the Bergeron-Marchand line because they were being smothered by the Werenski-Jones tandem with Jones playing against the right wing aka Pastrnak. Pastrnak's absence on the Bruins' top line made him virtually irrelevant in the series, and a lot of that has to do with how Seth Jones blanketed Pastrnak in the first two games to make him look human.

Of course, I shouldn't need to remind you about how Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos, and Brayden Point fared against Werenski and Jones as Jackets head coach John Tortorella leaned heavily on those two defenders so much so that Jones was second in avergae ice-time through ten playoff games last season while Werenski was fifth. These two defenders compliment one another so well in all three zones, and there's rarely ever a breakdown between them while on the ice.

So why is Jones getting questioned by me? In playing with the more offensively-gifted Werenski, Jones has really elevated his defensive game and puck-moving skills to a point where he can allow Werenski to join the rush while Jones handles the first-pass outlet from the defensive zone. His skating has improved where he can push the puck up the ice as well to enable a five-man attack for the Jackets, and his passing abilities have allowed Jones to join the power-play units where he can distribute the puck as well.

However, before we start handing out the Conn Smythe Trophy to Jones, though, there are flaws. And this is where the Leafs need to counter-punch to beat this pairing at their own game.

The analytics crowd has shown that Jones' contributions might not be as impressive as his eye tests reveal, and that's alright when one considers the step back he took offensively to assume a different role. He's not as involved in the offensive zone as a Werenski is, and, while he's seen as the better of the two defenders on his pairing when it comes to defensive play, offensive teams seem to have more controlled entries against Jones which leads to greater offensive chances against Jones and the Jackets. This can be a problem.

Jack Han points out that his skating while defending is a bit of a mess, leading to Jones allowing for greater gaps between him and his offensive check, often allowing a puck carrier to enter the zone while Jones assesses the situation. Jones has to remain true to the puck carrier when they cross the line - it's his job to prevent the offensive attack - so the Leafs would be wise to attack Jones' side on every opportunity. Once across the line, the other two forwards need to attack the middle of the ice and put pressure on Werenski.

Since Jones and Werenski are on the ice against Matthews, Hyman, and Nylander most often, playing the game down low only helps Jones as he plays physical, uses his stick well to break up passes, and often jumps into passing lanes to transition the other way. It should also be noted, though, that Jones and Werenski are the pairing that allowed the most inner-slot shots or high-danger chances against per minute played because teams can gain the blue line with ease. The Leafs need to stop playing below the goal line and start attacking off the rush if they're going to neutralize Jones' abilities to eliminate offensive chances.

Here's the rub: the Maple Leafs were dead-last in the percentage of "controlled entries against that turned into scoring chances" at 27.6%. Jones is going to look like a star against the Maple Leafs because they're so terrible at generating chances off their dump-ins. Because Jones can turn to skate forwards as he ranges deep into his own zone, that nixes any sort of skating issues that Han pointed out in his piece. It allows Jones to use his reach and size to win any puck battles along the end boards, giving Columbus a chance to transition back against the Leafs as the player the Jackets rely on to start the break out of their own zone.

This might be a case of the Blue Jackets simply being a bad opponent for the Maple Leafs based upon what the Leafs do poorly and what Jones does well. Like the Lightning one year ago, Jones has the ability to really wear down opposing forwards with his physical play and his ability to recover pucks quickly off dump-ins to transition the Jackets back to offence, but the Leafs aren't even in a position to exploit the weaknesses of the Blue Jackets on a nightly basis without some sort of major change to how they run their offence from the blue line in.

Make no mistake about Seth Jones: he's a good defender. Is he a top-five defender in the NHL? That's debatable, but it certainly doesn't help when his opposition makes him look impenetrable because they can't attack off the rush. That might be the biggest reason why Seth Jones handled the likes of Tavares, Marner, Matthews, and Nylander so well in Game One of this best-of-five series.

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!