Lighting The Lamp First

After having a little fun with some all-star selections last week, it's time for math class once again. Today isn't about Elo scores or that ridiculous, but it's a topic that we, as broadcasters, talk about a lot when it comes to winning hockey games. Scoring the first goal of the game seems like it would lead to a lot of victories, and we saw that Canada West teams earned a three-point victory in 70.27% of games in 2019-20 where those teams scored first. Would that trend continue in 2021-22? Are there any trends or anomalies we can see in these statistics?

In that 2019-20 season, there were some clear trends that emerged, but that 70.27% chance of winning in regulation times jumps out as a big advantage when it comes to scoring the first goal of the game. While there were 111 games of data from the 2019-20 season to examine, there have been 54 games this season from which we can pull data. It's not a complete season and these numbers can still change dramatically for 2021-22, but I'd say we have a large enough sample size to examine.

Canada West has shown us that scoring first this season results in a 68.52% chance of earning a regulation win - a difference of 1.75% which is hardly anything to warrant further examination. If we're making this easy on ourselves, having a 7-in-10 chance of winning in regulation simply because a team scored first is a statistic that all nine coaches in Canada West would take, so let's make the most obvious statement we can: scoring first matters.

As it stands, the record for teams who scored first in those 48 games of data is sitting at 38-10-2-4 if we were still playing a three-point setup, but, since we're back to two-points for a win, we can change those numbers to show the score-first record as 40-10-4 which would translate to a points percentage of .691 in a three-point system and .778 in a two-point system. Either way, earning points in 70% of games played where you score first takes a lot of pressure off your team if they need a point or two in the second half of the season.

32 of 54 first goals were scored in the first period of games this season (59.26%) which is slightly down from the 2019-20 season. In terms of the rest, 15 first-goals were scored in the second period (27.78%), five first-goals were scored in the third period (9.26%), and two were scored in overtime (3.70%). First-goals made up 45.71% of first period goals (32 of 70), but that number drops considerably in the second period where just 15 of 93 goals scored in that frame were first-goals (16.13%). Third-period scoring saw five first-goals scored of the 75 recorded (6.67%) while overtime saw two first-goals scored in the six recorded (33.33%)! Needless to say, scoring early gave teams the best chances of winning games outside of waiting until overtime to break a stalemate.

Here's where things go off the rails a bit because you'd expect home teams to have a better chance of scoring first being that they're in their home barns and they have the crowd behind them. However, home teams scored the first goal just 26 times in 54 games (48.15%). Compared to the 2019-20 season where home teams scored 55.856% of first-goals, the 2021-22 number surprised me. If you're doing the math, visiting teams scored first in 51.85% of the games. It would appear that home teams need to be slightly better prepared to start games.

How did that affect points percentages for home and road teams? Home teams ended up with a 19-3-1-3 record overall which can be moved to a 20-3-3 record overall. The points percentage for home teams in the two-point system shows that scoring first at home results in an 82.69% chance of earning points.

However, when road teams scored first, their win-loss record was 19-7-1-1 or 20-7-1. The points percentage for road teams who score first is 73.21%. I'm quite certain every coach in Canada West would take a greater-than-70% chance of earning points knowing that they simply have to score first on the road.

For those who may be asking, special teams did factor into this season's first-goals totals as well, but it was similar to 2019-20 where it seems to only play a minor role. Of all the first-goals scored, ten were on the power-play (18.52%) while just a single shorthanded marker was scored as the first goal of the game (1.85%). Scoring early and at even-strength seems to be the best way to guarantee one's team points in Canada West this season!

If we're looking at easy-to-compute numbers, it would appear that Canada West is following the same trend as it did in 2019-20 with teams scoring first earning points in approximately 70% of those games regardless of whether at home or on the road. If we simply used those numbers and nothing else, that would put the Score-First team in third-place based on points percentage, slightly ahead of Manitoba and slightly behind UBC. Tomorrow, we'll look at who is doing all the early scoring in games with respect to their records, and we'll break down the individual findings per team!

Just remember: if you want to win, score the first goal!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!