The Rundown - Scoring First

With everyone on break until January, there's hope that the second half of the Canada West schedule will resume on time unlike what we're seeing in Ontario and the Maritimes. The new COVID-19 variant is causing all sorts of problems with schedules for all sports, so please continue to exercise caution and smarts when it comes to large gatherings. If possible, get your booster shot, and, if you're needing to be vaccinated, please do so. Today, though, we're gonna look at the stats involving scoring the first goal of the game and how it affects each of the Canada West teams. You can read the summary of the overall results of scoring the opening goal here, but we're going to dig into those effects and how they affect each team in today's edition of The Rundown!

Record: 8-1-1-2 (20 pts).
Standing: 1st in Canada West.
Goals-For: 36.

Mount Royal is only one of two teams that have yet to post a regulation loss when scoring first, and they currently hold a 7-0-1-2 in that regard. As you can see, they've scored first in ten of their first twelve games, and that has benefitted them greatly as they've earned 18 of 20 points after taking a lead. Their only losses after scoring first both came in overtime: against Alberta in the opening game of the season, and against Manitoba on November 20. It's pretty clear that once Mount Royal gets an early lead, they're not relinquishing it.

Of their ten first goals, only one came on the power-play which is a testament to their five-on-five play. Mount Royal's five first-period opening goals are tied for the most in the conference, and they do have one of two overtime first-goals as well. This is a team that uses their first period scoring well as half of their ten first-period goals have been the first goal of those games, so Mount Royal deserves some kudos for their ability to get out in front and stay in front once they do.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 4-0-0-1.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-0-1-1.

The Cougars showed their scoring depth in this first half of the season, and their first-goal scorers are a reflection of that depth. No one player has more than two, but there are seven players who notched an opening goal.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Courtney Kollman (2), Tianna Ko (2), Tatum Amy (2), Kate Scidmore (1), Taylor Sawka (1), Aliya Jomha (1), Jori Hansen-Young (1).

Record: 9-3-0-0 (18 pts).
Position: 2nd in Canada West.
Goals-For: 49.

The Thunderbirds registered a first-goal win in all three months of the first half of the season, something only they and Mount Royal can claim. That helped them to their lofty 9-3-0-0 record in the opening half of the campaign, but their 6-1-0-0 record when scoring first speaks volumes about how important it is for UBC to play with the lead. If they were forced to play from behind, they fell to 3-2-0-0 in those games, so look for UBC to continue to push the pace as they aim to score first and score often as the conference's highest-scoring team.

UBC led every period in scoring in the first half of the season, yet none of the opening goals were scored in the third period. Instead, they scored for in the first period and three in the second period. In knowing those two facts, this is a team that will score early and score often to simply crush teams under a mountain of goals. It seems pretty clear that UBC is going to try to score their way out of most problems.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 4-0-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-1-0-0.

They scored the first goal in seven games, and seven different players scored those goals. Again, there's no denying that UBC has a pile of offensive talent this season, and the players listed below show just how deep their lineup is.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Ashley McFadden (1), Rylind MacKinnon (1), Sophia Gaskell (1), Karine Sandilands (1), Shay-Lee McConnell (1), Grace Elliott (1), Jenna Fletcher (1).

Record: 6-4-2-0 (16 pts).
Position: 3rd in Canada West.
Goals-For: 30.

It seems like Kyleigh Palmer and I have been lamenting Manitoba's "sleepy" first periods all season long, but it becomes apparent when you see that they've only compiled a 3-2-1-0 record when scoring first - only Regina and Trinity Western have been worse. What this means is that Manitoba was playing from behind a lot in games because they simply refused to jump in front and make other teams catch them. This is a dangerous way to live, especially when you consider that Manitoba has already lost two games where they opened the scoring.

Here's where things get even more scary: Manitoba has opened the scoring in the first period three times, but have only scored five first-period goals in total to this point in the season. The second period is fantastic as Manitoba has two more opening goals there, but they've also lit the lamp 18 times in the middle frame. It's the short-change periods that kill Manitoba as they've only scored six third-period goals all season. This team has defied the odds thus far in being as successful as they have been while only playing one period of hockey most nights.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 1-1-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-2-1-0.

I've liked her hustle all season long, so kudos to Vanessa Klimpke for leading the Bisons in opening goals. I'm a little shocked that we haven't seen Kate Gregoire or Kylie Lesuk on this list to date, but there's still time in the final eight games of the season.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Vanessa Klimpke (2), Sarah Dennehy (1), Ashley Keller (1), Halle Edwards (1), Samantha Sichkaruk (1).

Record: 4-4-3-1 (15 pts).
Position: 4th in Canada West.
Goals-For: 28.

Alberta's October didn't go well as they didn't score the opening goal in any game. Because of that, they only have a 3-2-0-0 record when scoring first. Like the tams that came before them, though, the Pandas do battle hard to win games, but they could make it easier on themselves by scoring first a little more often. Alberta was the only team not to record a special-teams opening goal in the first half of the season as well.

In what might be one of the weirdest stats lines, Payton Laumbach might be the first and only player to have recorded an opening goal on an open net as she completed that feat against Manitoba when the Bisons scored an "own goal" during a delayed penalty call. Alberta scored two first-period opening goals and three second-period opening goals in periods where they scored nine and eleven goals, respectively. There's nothing that really stands out here other than Alberta needs more goals and certainly needs more opening goals in games.

Alberta scored as many overtime goals in October - three - as they did in their second periods which were their most productive periods. Had they opened the scoring in any of those games, they may not have needed those overtime goals. In any case, the Pandas have to find a way to generate more first-goal opportunities if they want to continue to climb the standings.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-0-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 1-2-0-0.

The Pandas only scored five goals, so don't expect a lot of names. One player who is making her opportunties count, though, is Jadynn Morden who leads the Pandas with a pair of first-goal goals.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Jadynn Morden (2), Payton Laumbach (1), Megan Wilson (1), Natalie Kieser (1).

Record: 6-2-0-2 (14 pts).
Position: 5th in Canada West.
Goals-For: 23.

Saskatchewan's great defensive play helps them hold leads, but, because they don't score a lot, playing catch-up or scoring a big goal to swing momentum seems like a tall task for the Huskies. That being said, Saskatchewan is an impressive 5-0-0-0 when scoring first, but that 1-2-0-2 record when they don't score first should concern head coach Steve Kook. If Saskatchewan doesn't score first, they're a sub-.500 team, and we know the Huskies struggle to score. This might be their Achilles' heel.

Saksatchewan does like to get out in front early, scoring four opening goals of the nine total goals they scored in the first period. Once they get the lead, they have yet to relinquish it so it would seem imperative that the Huskies score first. While they do have fairly balanced scoring across all three periods with totals of nine, seven, and seven goals respectively, it should be noted that they don't have double-digits in goals in any period yet. This is that lack of scoring that should worry the Huskies, specifically in the third period when behind.

It's pretty simple: Saskatchewan needs to score first more often if they want to win more games. While they have won six games in regulation this season, it's pretty clear that their 5-0-0-0 record in games where they've scored first is major part of that success. Saskatchewan has to score more often, but they need to continue to score first to stay in the hunt for a top-two finish.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-0-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-0-0-0.

Bourassa, Lalor, and Brown won't be names you'll find as opening-goal scorers for the Huskies thus far. If the Huskies can get those offensive catalysts going, they'll be far more dangerous in the second half of the season.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Abby Shirley (1), Emily Holmes (1), Kelsey Hall (1), Jasper Desmarais (1), Kate Ball (1).

Record: 5-7-0-0 (10 pts).
Position: 6th in Canada West.
Goals-For: 16.

Let's be very clear: scoring 1.33 goals-per-game is a good way to miss the playoffs. MacEwan is incredibly defying those odds, and a large part of that equation is their 5-1-0-0 record when scoring the game's first goal. Yes, you read that correctly: MacEwan has won five of the six games where they scored first, and those are the only five wins they have this season. If you're Lindsay McAlpine and you're reading this, the message is clear: score more often, especially opening goals. MacEwan's only loss when they scored first was in the last game of the first half of the season when they scored the opening goal in a 6-1 loss to Alberta.

For a team that doesn't score very often, it's pretty remarkable that four of their six first-period goals have been opening goals in games that they've won, and they've opened the scoring five times in the first period with the lone loss to Alberta being the one they couldn't convert. What should concern the Griffins is that they've only scored five second-period goals - the least in the conference - and one of those opened the scoring for a win for them. I'll give credit to the MacEwan defence in that once they get a lead, teams are stifled in the Griffins' zone. It's just that getting a lead seems to be the biggest challenge for the Griffins. It should be noted that MacEwan is one of two teams to two power-play goals as first goals.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 3-1-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-0-0-0.

No Chantal Ricker. No Kyrelle Skoye. Your two veteran players have yet to splash ink on the scoresheet first, so that means MacEwan is getting some good contributions from other players. Rylee Gluska leads the way for the Griffins!
FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Rylee Gluska (2), Aryn Chambers (1), Jayme Doyle (1), Mila Verbicky (1), Joie Simon (1).

Record: 4-6-0-2 (10 pts).
Position: 7th in Canada West.
Goals-For: 22.

Regina's struggles to score can be reflected in that four players have scored 13 of their 22 total goals this season. As a result, they haven't scored many opening goals in games, but they're a respectable 3-0-0-2 when they do. Of course, that also means they're 1-6-0-0 when they don't score first, so that too shows the immediate lack of scoring this team possesses as overcoming a deficit is a much harder task than defending a lead. We'll have to see how the second half of the season goes for Regina because we know that Sarah Hodges usually has them firing on all cylinders by the time the schedule resumes.

Regina has scored just three first-period goals this season, and all of them opened the scoring in those games. That's not good, but their 2-0-0-1 record in those games is very good. It should also be noted that each of those games finished as a one-goal game, so Regina's inability to bury teams once they get the lead is very noticeable. If Regina wants to climb back into the playoff picture, filling their opponents' nets - doing it first and doing it more often - would be a very good thing for the Cougars' fortunes.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 1-0-0-2.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 2-0-0-0.

Like she's doing for team points, Lilla Carpenter-Boesch leads the way with opening goals, but there are a few usual suspects on the list as Jordan Kulbida and Paige Hubbard have lit the lamp as well.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Lilla Carpenter-Boesch (2), Paige Hubbard (1), Jordan Kulbida (1), Rhea Gilroy (1).

Record: 4-8-0-0 (8 pts).
Position: 8th in Canada West.
Goals-For: 26.

Calgary's record isn't anything to write home about, but there is a silver lining in that they're 4-2-0-0 when scoring the opening goal of the game. The two losses were the first two games of the season against Manitoba where the Dinos were fairly decent offensively, but struggled on the defensive side of things. Since those two games, the Dinos win when they score first and when they're at home. If they can start doing that on the road, they'll have a shot at making the playoffs this season.

It should be noted that Calgary is the only team to score first both on the power-play and while shorthanded. And while it's good to see their special teams doing some solid work, the Dinos simply need to score more goals as they're one of the four teams who have yet to score double-digits in goals in any period. They do have nine, eight, and nine in the three periods, respectively, so scoring is balanced across three periods, but they're going to need more from their depth when one considers that Lang, Borrow, and Reuther have 16 of their 26 goals this season.

The Dinos started the season strong, scoring first in five of the six games they played in October. Since the calendar flipped to November and December, they've scored a game's opening goal just once. As I've shown both yesterday and today, teams that score first win about 70% of the time, so Calgary's going to need to start scoring first again if they want to give themselves a boost when it comes to wins.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 4-0-0-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 0-2-0-0.

There are some notable names missing from this list as Alli Borrow and Annaliese Meier were counted on last season when it came to scoring first for their respective teams. Holly Reuther leads the way for Calgary, though, as she's having an outstanding campaign.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Holly Reuther (2), Rachel Paul (1), Elizabeth Lang (1), Emily Hill (1), Sage Desjardins (1).

Record: 1-10-1-0 (4 pts).
Position: 9th in Canada West.
Goals-For: 13.

Writing about a team who is averaging 1.08 goals-per-game through the first half of the season would mean there isn't a lot to be positive about when it comes to winning. Trinity Western has two wins to their name in their inaugural Canada West campaign, but it should be noted they're 1-2-1-0 when scoring first - both wins have happened when TWU dented twine first! Of the four first-period goals they've scored this season, two opened the scoring where TWU was 1-1-0-0 in those games. I'm not saying they're going to win a ton of games, but scoring first gives Trinity Western an edge they don't seem to find when they don't score first as they're 0-8-0-0 in all other games.

For a team that has just two third-period goals all season, they legitimately have to be leading when entering the final frame or it's game over. As expected, they have no opening goals in that frame, but they did win the one game they pushed to overtime against Saskatchewan. They have just three players who have scored two-or-more goals this season, so scoring more often is the only key to Trinity Western winning more games. Outside of that, if they score more often while scoring first in those games, it would appear they play defence well enough to possibly shock a few teams in the second half of the season.

HOME RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 0-1-1-0.
ROAD RECORD AFTER SCORING FIRST: 1-1-0-0.

Two of the three players who have multiple goals this season appear as first-goal scorers as Germann and Leier have both notched the first goal in games. Again, Trinity Western just needs more goals in general, so here's hoping more names are on this list by the end of the season.

FIRST-GOAL SCORERS: Ashley Wolfe (1), Neisha Germann (1), Olivia Leier (1), Lainie Nichols (1).

At the end of the day, teams that scored first are a whopping 37-10-3-4 on the season which would translate to a points percentage of .778. Only Mount Royal's points percentage is better than that figure this season, so scoring first really does pay off when it comes to collecting points. If we're talking regulation wins, the figure drops to .685, but that's still better than all but Mount Royal and UBC. I cannot stress this enough: score first to give yourself a 77.8% chance of earning at least one point in any game!

Beyond that, you really see how scoring first affects every single team when it comes to their overall records. By quantifying this concept, it really furthers the idea that teams need to be ready to play from the moment the puck is dropped in every game because there's a better-than-good chance of winning games simply by denting twine first. I get that the season is a grind, but all nine teams can do themselves big favours simply by jumping out to a lead.

This is the last edition of The Rundown before Christmas, so I want to say Merry Christmas to all the Canada West hockey fans out there who are celebrating this holiday. The Rundown will be back next weekend on Boxing Day with another fun article, so make sure you stop in during all the sales for more Canada West women's hockey info and news!

Until next time, keep your sticks on the ice!